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It’s the end of the year again, as in previous years, it’s time for Token Daily to open the 2021 crystal ball for everyone!
This year, we have had more exchanges with some big figures in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, hoping that they can take the pulse of the industry’s development in 2021 and explore the next trend and mode of the industry.
Not much nonsense, let us see what these bigwigs expect in 2021!
Bitcoin will continue to move forward across the gap. As more institutions adopt it, the narrative of Bitcoin’s “digital gold” will be further enhanced.
Ethereum has been playing the role of the settlement layer of the global financial system, and this role will be further consolidated in 2021 and will enter the institutional phase.
The issuance of stablecoins will continue to show a sharp upward trend. We will see the emergence of stablecoin native financial applications/services for individuals and businesses, and the market competitiveness is becoming stronger and stronger.
It is expected that we will see at least one centralized company launching a decentralized, user-owned/operated encrypted network that will conduct legal checks and balances on company behavior.
Former Coinbase Chief Technology Officer, Independent Investor
In 2021, the real battle for the next decade has just begun: BTC vs. Modern Monetary Theory.
Bitcoin will become more and more popular around the world. It is like the perfect “antidote” to currency inflation.
In 2021, Bitcoin is expected to exceed $100,000, because institutional investors have already begun to enter the market. In addition, the Bitcoin mining industry will also develop significantly next year-we will see the North American mining market and renewable energy mining will dominate.
In addition, with the increasing number of bitcoin custody services, it will also promote the development of the data center industry. Perhaps most Bitcoin investors still don’t understand the nature of this industry, but the number of Bitcoin investors will grow substantially.
We expect to see at least 5 pure cryptocurrency IPOs in 2021, and the year-end market value of these projects will exceed $250 billion.
Finally, online creators and the digital art economy will see explosive growth, and tokenization will accelerate the development of creative economics. As a result, cultural creators will gain a lot of cryptocurrency wealth, and some physical objects will be tokenized and self-promoted-if anyone is interested, I will bid.
The cryptocurrency industry will further strengthen in 2021, and it may become a super black hole of capital and talent. Bitcoin will become a consensus next year, and it is expected that traditional entrepreneurs and investors will become more and more interested in Ethereum/DeFi.
In 2021, the liquidity of the options market on the cryptocurrency chain will become stronger and capital efficiency will become higher. We will also see growth in the field of automated market makers (AMM), and there will be more specific The emergence of automated market makers for infrastructure.
More and more newcomers will enter the cryptocurrency market, and we will usher in a new era. If the crypto community hopes to fulfill the values of establishing a better financial system, it is necessary to establish an inclusive culture in this field. become more and more important.
The growing hardware wallet and node ecosystem will continue to flourish and show an upward trend. We will see more new players and DIY projects in the market.
One thing that has taught us in recent years is that for enthusiasts, the most meaningful thing is to provide them with infrastructure construction services. Many of them are eager to build their own collection of hardware wallets and run multiple nodes.
Along these lines of thinking, I think there will be an increase in development related to the Partial Signature Bitcoin Transaction (PSBT) standard. The reason why this field has gradually become dazzling is mainly because it enables interoperability between air gapped devices, and market demand is almost certain to increase in 2020. 2021 will be a year of great strides. Hardware wallets/signature devices will introduce a series of new functions, and our understanding of such products will become deeper. A lot of work in this area has been completed in 2020, such as the realization of standardized communication of QR codes and the launch of a new partially signed version of bitcoin transactions.
Education and Gen Z adoption. This may be my prediction with the least evidence. I believe that the price trend of cryptocurrency in 2021 will promote more people to understand cryptocurrency. The bull market is the best educational material for beginners. Next, Gen Z may adopt more cryptocurrencies.
I mean, who knows that 2020 will be a year of booming markets? Cryptocurrency supporters may or may not claim that the current cryptocurrency has entered the “real adoption” stage, but there are many companies that are indeed in a good position to attract new user groups through custodial services and bitcoin reward programs. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Bitcoin enter pop culture in an unprecedented way. Who knows? Maybe we will see Bitcoin pop up in some rap videos.
Western countries will continue to carry out multilateral regulatory attacks on the free circulation of cryptocurrencies, and may pay particular attention to those cryptocurrencies that are “in and out” in exchanges.
The adoption of better expansion technologies (such as Lightning Network and zero-knowledge compression technology) will further promote the acceptance of cryptocurrencies by the mainstream, and the crypto industry will pass the early adoption stage.
In 2021, we will see that mainstream institutions are increasingly interested in Bitcoin, and the cryptocurrency infrastructure will also be further expanded.
In addition, we will also see a large-scale coordination trend in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), more projects in the personal/social token industry, and some outstanding artists/creators may launch their own tokens.
Castle Island Ventures
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will make clear provisions on crypto custody in accordance with Article 15c3-3, which will increase institutional participation in the cryptocurrency industry. A U.S. pension fund is expected to publicly announce that it has invested in Bitcoin. Regulators may approve multiple Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (BTC ETF) in 2021. In addition, there should be several crypto asset infrastructure companies that will pass traditional IPO and SPAC listing.
Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency industry “tent” will become bigger and bigger, including consumers, capital and talents will accelerate inflow into this field, and cryptocurrency will become more diverse.
A group of security field and corporate executives will join the cryptocurrency industry, and they are expected to inject broader and deeper skills, experience, and perspectives to further enhance the growth and resilience of the Bitcoin market. In addition, due to the improved market environment, some industry leaders and decision makers will no longer be indifferent to Bitcoin and blockchain.
When we enter 2021, many of the promises made in 2017 will be fulfilled, such as:
The first-level agreement will be better integrated in the emerging developer ecosystem;
The DeFi market will reach a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars;
Decentralized infrastructure will achieve early product/market fit;
Artists can get a lot of income through NFT;
The scale of assets managed by decentralized autonomous organizations will reach billions of dollars.
However, it may not be until after 2024 that most countries in the world will notice these disruptive and changeable technologies.
Bitcoin Core Developer
Bitcoin prices may fluctuate up and down, please wear your seat belt!
In 2020, the new crown virus epidemic has affected our daily lives and other routine activities, but it has also greatly accelerated our transition to digitalization. In fact, the epidemic has changed our way of thinking again, making it easier for us to adapt to digitalization.
Generation Z young people have a completely different idea. They can not care about their social security numbers, but attach great importance to TikTok accounts. I think in the next ten years, if the movie “Ready Player One” appears in real life The scene in) should not be surprising.
As more and more institutions/companies participate in investment, Bitcoin will certainly continue to dominate the cryptocurrency market in 2021. We will see more and more large financial technology companies adopt cryptocurrencies (or at least Use Bitcoin) to expand your product range and attract new users/retain old users.
Projects and functions in the cryptocurrency industry are expected to be further integrated, especially in the DeFi field, where many projects are trying to attract users.
By 2021, issuing new tokens will be easier and cheaper than ever. We will see more and more specific tokens for specific communities and small communities appear. These tokens may be called “community tokens”, “social tokens”, or other names.
These long-tail tokens will each have a small addressable market, but together they can act as a bridge between cryptocurrency and the real world. These tiny, targeted tokens will enable community members to get more value. You should know that in the past, these values may have been taken away by traditional brokers or beneficiaries of funds and usage rights.
Some shocking things may happen in 2021. Ripple may “take over” the weak Fed. According to the US economic stimulus policy, the federal government will distribute relief funds to people. Ripple (XRP) may be used in this field. Use it because it is a real American cryptocurrency preferred by banks.
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Investors can actually make predictions about the future market through the 3-month moving average. For the founders of cryptocurrency projects, they may wake up every morning hoping to accurately predict the market.
In 2021, the crypto community’s ideas on governance and financial reporting will begin to become more and more mature, and we may see more crypto projects independently report related financial status to improve transparency, accountability and decision-making capabilities.
Regardless of what it looks or feel, the cryptocurrency industry has begun to gradually develop from the research and development stage to the commercialization stage. Therefore, market competition will further intensify, and the competition between projects may look more like a battle between traditional companies. They will “fight” on the vectors of project cost, product offering and distribution. Some projects will be vertically integrated, while others will be horizontally integrated.
In 2021, the price of Bitcoin will exceed $100,000, the price of Ethereum will exceed $2,000, and Coinbase will go public.
In the second half of 2021, there may be a “black swan” event. For example, the price of a gray-scale cryptocurrency product may plummet, but compared to “Bitcoin price will exceed $100,000, and Ethereum price will exceed $2,000. “Coinbase will IPO” these three things, “black swan” is much less likely to happen.
Several listed companies, including Tesla, will add Bitcoin to their balance sheets;
The labor market, agreements, and corporate power will become increasingly decentralized;
Central banks around the world will continue to issue large amounts of currency in response to the economic impact of the new crown virus epidemic;
The two-tier agreement and organization will make the spending, purchase and profitability of Bitcoin easier than ever, which will further promote the acceleration of Bitcoin to mass adoption.
2021 is the year when DeFi “meets” financial technology. Crypto companies such as Circle, Wyre and Multis will integrate fiat currencies to build a bridge from DeFi to traditional finance. On the other hand, companies such as Revolut and Paypal will also begin to get involved in DeFi savings products and stable currency businesses.
Crypto purists on Twitter may lament that more and more centralized market participants are entering the cryptocurrency industry, but for most people in the crypto industry, the entry of traditional financial institutions should be recognized as promoting cryptocurrency. And DeFi is the best way to popularize applications on a large scale.
As central banks around the world begin to launch central bank digital currencies, it is expected that central bank digital currencies and stablecoins will flourish in 2021. In addition, foreign exchange will also become one of the most discussed applications in DeFi, and of course it may be the most controversial. battlefield.
In addition, as the line between DeFi and NFT continues to blur, we may experience a “NFT boom” similar to the 2020 DeFi boom in 2021.
However, I think Bitcoin may not enter the trough again in 2021, because Bitcoin no longer causes (regulatory) concerns, and with the participation of institutions, Bitcoin volatility issues may be effectively resolved, and market trends will more stable.
As the M&A market heats up and fintech/banks “snap up” cryptocurrency companies, the cryptocurrency industry will experience a record year of consolidation in 2021.
It is expected that next year, the cryptocurrency industry will see the first real social consumer application, and it will be welcomed by non-crypto users and stand out in the traditional market.
With the release of Libra, we will see technology companies launch another stable currency backed by legal tender, but at the same time the issuance and supervision of stable currency will be subject to great attention and pressure from regulatory agencies.
Castle Island Ventures
It is generally believed that the trend of cryptocurrency dollarization will further increase, and this trend may have played a very important role in the collapse of sovereign currencies, such as the bolivar, the legal currency of Venezuela.
In 2021, a mainstream stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar (with a free float of more than 1 billion U.S. dollars) on the market may suffer a run risk and be traded at a price of less than 90 cents for a long period of time (at least one month).
Investors began to question the quality of “governance tokens” and began to demand more clear coding of the rights of token holders.
The total supply of stablecoins will exceed $50 billion.
At least six cryptocurrency exchanges or custodians around the world regularly formulate reserve agreement certificates.
As in most cases, I think next year will be the year of DeFi. For DeFi, this will be a huge responsibility, because these entrepreneurs, developers and companies will begin to redefine the future of finance, and at the same time become more firm in DeFi values.
I think the reason why more and more people enter the cryptocurrency industry is because cryptocurrency provides a more open, more autonomous and more efficient financial infrastructure, especially since Diem (Libra), China, and other big countries have started Have entered the field of digital currency. We will see the true faces of many people in the cryptocurrency industry. In addition, I hope to see more cross-chain interoperability between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stellar, Algorand, Polkadot and other blockchains in 2021. This will More people bring convenience.
The African market will adopt the Lightning Network more quickly, and many small transaction remittances will be developed on the Lightning Network.
As more and more people discover that stablecoins are a way to hedge against the depreciation of their own currencies, a large amount of funds may flow into the stablecoin market denominated in US dollars, especially in some developing economies. The economies of these countries may experience a recession, and people are more Worried about currency depreciation.
Cryptocurrency regulatory regulations will become clearer in 2021-in fact, we have seen a large-scale growth and adoption of cryptocurrencies in 2020, and governments of various countries are expected to revise their regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in 2021. Think more and react.
Between the smart contract-centric blockchain and Ethereum, there should be short-term market value fluctuations next year. In the past few years, the development of Ethereum has indeed been slow, and Ethereum will also suffer some penalties because of its blockchain network may become more and more crowded.
In 2021, the relationship between cryptocurrency and the digital art economy will be closer, the blockchain will be used as a tool, and the crypto community will become an early adopter during the transition between the old and new social platforms.
Privacy, privacy, privacy!
IDEO CoLab Ventures
Next year, many DeFi-related industries will receive higher-level services, products and experiences, such as business, social media, social networks, and games. In addition, we will also see the next major breakthrough in the crypto industry in 2021: Crypto Social, which will make it possible to open social graphs. Value will begin to move up in the product, experience, and application layers, and user-centric design and user experience will play a vital role in the success of crypto projects.
By the end of 2021, it is expected that most African fintech companies will provide cryptocurrency imports, and most cryptocurrency native companies will also provide more traditional fintech functions, resulting in a significant increase in the number of cryptocurrency users in Africa.
2021 will be the year of regulation. The upcoming “midnight rulemaking” by the US Treasury Department may have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency industry. Satoshi Nakamoto has laid a solid foundation for us, giving us the power to democratize money, and decentralized systems are also accelerating expansion, but the problem is that although the crypto industry currently has a huge momentum for development, These systems are not very secure, so we need to continue to work hard to protect them.
Yes, of course we all know that the Bitcoin system cannot be “closed”. However, if we want to play the role of encryption technology more widely, so that the true potential of cryptocurrency can affect and change the lives of billions of people, then we need to cooperate with regulators and policy makers, because we can do this a little. Fortunately, in the countless nights we have worked with regulators and decision makers, many people are not afraid of regulation. These regulators will actually interact with practitioners in the crypto industry in a meaningful way and understand that we are developing Technologies and the future potential of these technologies.
Having said that, the amount of regulatory and policy input we need to do in 2021 is likely to be greater than all the work done in all previous years. The cryptocurrency industry takes regulatory issues seriously and welcomes the opportunity for regulators to take the time to fully understand the real benefits of decentralization and cryptocurrency to the global economy and personal economy.
Three Arrows Capital
In 2021, my forecast is as follows:
Several central banks may announce the purchase of Bitcoin, and most investment banks and private banks will also announce the purchase of crypto products.
The total amount of DeFi locked up will exceed $100 billion.
Coinbase’s initial public offering will trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the cryptocurrency industry.
Several large listed companies will issue capital structure tools related to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s crypto dominance will increase significantly.
Bitcoin options market trading volume will account for more than 50% of all crypto derivatives markets.
Cryptocurrency may become the main currency of some small countries.
It is expected that in 2021 there will be more cryptocurrency exchanges using the Lightning Network, the Lightning Network anchor outputs will become more mature, many new UX will appear, key management will be improved, and the Lightning Network “hot” wallet external signers Will get a better experience.
The speed of institutional investors investing in Bitcoin will become faster and faster, and the new cycle will push the price of Bitcoin to rise further. The second half of 2020 is just the beginning. In addition, as more and more people from traditional industries join the cryptocurrency field, talents and infrastructure will be improved. We also expect to see more M&A transactions in the cryptocurrency market.
At the same time, the Lightning Network will usher in a breakthrough in 2021, and Ethereum’s second-tier solutions will become more and more mature and commonplace. In addition, I expect at least one encrypted integrated game (and subsequent NFT) to be accepted by the mainstream.
Clinton Bembry Jr.
EIP 1559 will be online at the end of 2021.
In 2021, the total transaction volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) will exceed $1 trillion.
Bessemer Venture Partners
Bitcoin will remain the top store of value digital currency.
Stablecoins will continue to dominate the field of payments and spot transactions.
The proportion of Bitcoin held by institutions (hedge funds, etc.) will double.
Many one-layer solutions will die.
Most tokens will not develop very well.
If the institutional adoption rate of cryptocurrency continues to rise, Western countries will pay more and more attention to cryptocurrency. Project parties, tokens and exchanges will judge the market trend based on the upside potential of cryptocurrencies. They will not evaluate the future of the market based on the level of use and excitement of current cryptocurrencies by industry insiders.
This may further highlight the differences in the treatment of cryptocurrencies between different countries/regions. Some countries/regions may continue to pay attention to the products that have been adopted in the current cryptocurrency industry.
2021 will be the year of decentralization of the stack: protocols related to decentralized application programming interfaces, oracles, and storage should all be ready to go online, and these protocols can provide a lot of support for the current Ethereum. Perhaps no one will run DApps on a centralized infrastructure soon, because people may think this approach is stupid and insecure.
The premium of digital asset fund products such as Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) and Bitwise’s BITW will become higher and higher, so that retail investors cannot afford it. In this case, the US Securities and Exchange Commission will eventually realize that the current market conditions can no longer meet the needs of retail investors, so it may approve the Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (BTC ETF).
Governance of mining will become very important, leading to the emergence of “governance as a service” in the market.
Regulatory resistance will increase, especially the regulation of decentralized finance.
Encryption and game cross-border interaction may usher in the first breakthrough.
NFT use cases will explode.
Mention an extended goal: Twitter founder Jack Dorsey may become less loyal to Bitcoin, and he may also embrace Ethereum.
In 2021, the fully diluted market value of the first-tier agreement will reach 100 billion US dollars.
Given that the United States has recently made slow progress in cryptocurrency regulation, we may see two worlds in the DeFi industry. “American First World” will have some semi-regulated products that comply with regulatory regulations, so their adoption of new technologies will be slower. At the same time, the “Asian First World” will not be bound by regulation, and they will take the lead in leading a new concept of decentralized finance.
In 2021, the structure of the cryptocurrency market will become more and more mature, and the options market may usher in another bumper year.
The cryptocurrency exchange Binance will eventually launch an option product that directly competes with Deribit.
PayPal may launch a stablecoin on the Ethereum blockchain.
Stablecoins will gradually look for new use cases with product/market fit in areas other than trading.
Thanks to Optimism’s second-tier solution, non-custodial derivatives have begun to rise, and they are expected to account for 10% of the total open positions on centralized exchanges by the end of 2021.
The market value of Coinbase may exceed $80 billion, which may “stimulate” other cryptocurrency companies to repricing.
Traditional companies began to try to acquire profitable cryptocurrency companies, and M&A transactions in the cryptocurrency market began to heat up.
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) cryptocurrency guidelines will begin to be implemented, and some cryptocurrency exchanges that provide cryptocurrency trading services in obscure jurisdictions may generate some pressure.