[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Bitcoin recovers $58,000… ‘Strong buying tax inflow’

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Aim Rich Cryptocurrency Investment Information (2021.4.8)
<Figure 1-1=Market trend score as of 14:00 on the 8th (100 points, left)/Market rise/fall intensity (right)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

Bitcoin (BTC), which plunged the previous day, led to an inflow of low-priced buying, creating a bull market where the price of bitcoin recovers to the moving average on the 20th. The Ethereum (ETH) price has also recovered to $2,000 and is expanding its upward trend. However, whether the uptrend will continue due to the lack of transaction volume for the recent further rise and controversy over price overvaluation, it is likely to be important whether or not an additional buying tax is inflow.

Last night, the US New York Stock Market re-emphasized the easing policy through the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve System (Fed), but it ended in a mixed trend with a breathtaking breath from the recent rise. On the 7th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 industrial average index rose 0.05% from the previous trading day, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.15%, and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index fell 0.07%.

As of 14 o’clock on the 8th, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $59,300.30, the 24-hour trading volume is about $72.3 billion, and the market cap is about $1.67 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.929.9 billion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 55.3%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 12.4%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 2.61% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 3.47% compared to the previous day, making altcoins stronger than bitcoin, and bitcoin’s market cap increased 1.96% compared to the previous day. It was analyzed that Altcoin’s average increase rate was higher than Bitcoin’s, as its share decreased by 0.63% compared to the previous day.

<Figure 1-2=Status of Real-Time Cryptocurrency Market/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that started with a strong market has been showing that the rise is continuing to expand, and altcoins have a higher rise rate than Bitcoin, and the buying trend for medium-sized stocks is the strongest. done. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -2.73%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +3.18%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is +2.64%, and index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC recorded +3.77%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +1.21%.

<Figure 1-3=Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the past 24 hours/data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>
<Table 1=Ratio of Longs/Shorts trading volume of major exchanges as of 14:00 on the 8th/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

As of 14 o’clock on the 8th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours was similar at 50%:50%, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to be strong in selling. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around +25.5, and the basis of Ethereum futures was around +1.35, maintaining the contango status. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. April futures traded at $57,450.0, an increase of $1140.0 (+2.02%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <strong>

As of 14:00 on the 8th, the cryptocurrency market price is falling. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 7,7777,000 won, down 1.26% compared to the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 2.89,000 won, down 0.18%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

<Figure 2-1=Upbit’s Major Stock Price/Data=Trading View>
<Figure 2-2=Top 10 Coin Price (As of April 8, 14:00)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market remains strong based on coin market cap, and 9 out of the top 10 stocks in market capitalization are rising as of the last 24 hours. International Bitcoin (BTC) price is $58,852.47, up 1.64% from the same time the day before, and Ethereum (ETH) is $2,0127.26, up 3.93%. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>

As the price trend of bitcoin and Ethereum, which had been leading the market, has collapsed, many market experts predict that for the time being, the market will lead to an altcoin-oriented circular market and the bitcoin price will move in the range of $54,000 to $60,000. In addition, some observations predicted a large correction within a few days if the buying trend weakens.

(Positive opinion)

① Bloomberg Crypto’s monthly report released this week predicts that the bitcoin price will surpass $400,000 within the year. It is explained that these optimistic predictions were made based on the price fluctuations of bitcoin during the bull market in 2017 and 2013. Bloomberg said, “Some are concerned that rising bond yields may dilute gold and bitcoin’s inflation hedge (hedge) attractiveness, leading to a price drop, but Bitcoin is likely to remain resilient amid rising yields.” .

②CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency on-chain analysis company, said, “This is not the peak of the Bitcoin market cycle.” “When the market peaks, everyone deposits and sells bitcoins on exchanges. The number of incoming addresses on all exchanges was the highest in January 2018, and the lowest in three years a few days ago. People don’t sell bitcoins and hold them. I’m doing it,” he explained.

③ Edward Moya, senior analyst at Oanda, a foreign exchange brokerage, said, “Despite short-term resistance, Bitcoin’s breakthrough of $60,000 and a record high of $61,000 on the back of the interest of the institutional sector and the rise of buying is only a matter of time. The next barrier will be $75,000.”

④Cryptocurrency data provider William Noble, chief technical analyst at Token Metrics, said, “Due to recent institutional news and interest, $60,000 is just another round number for Bitcoin to pass.” He said, “If it exceeds $60,000, then $80,000 will be a short-term target.”

(Negative opinion)

① According to CoinDesk, the bitcoin transaction volume peaked on January 11th and showed a decreasing trend despite the continued price increase. This indicates a slowing upward momentum and corresponds to the downward trend of the 14th Relative Strength Index (RSI). CoinDesk analyzed that with Bitcoin remaining in the range of $50,000 to $60,000 over the past month, the $60,000 resistance line created a profit-taking atmosphere, and the support level was set at around $54,000.

② Cryptocurrency analyst Rakesh Upadhi said, “Institutional interest is increasing, but the growth rate in the first quarter of this year was slower than 240% in the fourth quarter of 2020.” ) Can be adjusted to a large extent,” he observed. “Bitcoin needs more money to keep its price going up,” he warned. “Some investors may have jumped into the cryptocurrency market to get speculative quick gains.” It added that volatility across the market could remain high over the next few days.

③Scott Minerd, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Guggenheim Partners, a US investment specialist, said, “If the risk-off atmosphere spreads, the price of bitcoin could fall to the level of 20,000 to 30,000 dollars.” . However, he added, “The level of 20,000 to 30,000 dollars will be a good entry point for long-term investors.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

As the bitcoin buying trend withered, even Ethereum, which had risen strongly, is increasing in selling volumes. If you analyze the on-chain transaction volume indicator (see Analyzing the Volume Trend on the Day on page 12), it is reasonable to see that Ethereum price rises unless there is a higher quantity sold on the day before Ethereum recently recorded the highest number of sells on the previous day. . Therefore, in the event of a short-term rebound, it is effective to try to buy lightly as a profit target, but to maintain the quantity after confirming that the Bitcoin 20-day moving average line and the Ethereum 10-day moving average line are properly crossed.

The direction of the daily bitcoin market price (see Figure 5-1), which recovered the moving average on the 20th, seems to be important.It would be nice if the weekly market buying trend on the day was maintained, but if not and if the moving average on the 20th collapses again, the bitcoin price It is expected to face the bottom of the $54,000 and Bollinger Band. If bitcoin falls, the purchase amount of altcoins with greater price volatility must be cleared to prevent losses.

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $56,693. As the current bitcoin market price is already above the market price of the day and this price, the opportunity to buy is possible when 1) support for the 20th moving average line and rebound 1) when the 5th and 10th moving averages are exceeded on the same day. However, if the bitcoin price exceeds the 20-day moving average or $56,693, it is recommended to withhold the trading, and especially if it deviates from the 20-day moving average, clear up short-term purchases and wait and see. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

<Figure 5-1=BTC/USDT (Binance) Daily Price (Based on 14:00 on the 8th)/Chart=Trading View>
<Figure 5-2=Deribit (DRBT) BTC Option Simulation Result of Expected Water Settlement Price on April 8 (at 14:00)/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was estimated to be around US$57,000 and US$2,080, respectively, as of 14:00. As the prices of the two stocks are currently lower than this, further increases are expected (see’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 14).

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14 o’clock on the 8th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were found to be’active buy’ and’neutral’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 6 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 1’Sell’, and 1’Neutral’ opinion and’Strong Buy’ opinion, and the moving average indicator is 8’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with four’sell’.

<Figure 6-1=Upbit: BTC/KRW (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 3,’Sell’ is 2, and’Neutral’ is 3, sending a’buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ and 6, ‘ ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Neutral’ with 6 cases.

<Figure 6-2=Binance: BTC/USDT (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ rose 1 point from the previous day (72) to 73, maintaining the same level of greed as the previous day. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

<Figure 7=Crypto Fear and Greed Index/Data=Alternative.Me>

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 8, 14:00) <Weakness>

As the bitcoin price fell, the US CME Bitcoin futures return to the beginning of the year as of 14:00 on the 8th fell 10.68% from last Thursday to 78.99%. During the same period, the S&P 500 index and oil futures rose by 0.06% and 1.61%, while the dollar index and gold futures fell by 0.17% and 0.66%.

The 10-year U.S. bond yield on the previous day was weak due to the possibility of an increase in the Fed’s excess reserve interest rate (IOER) and an intraday reversal of oil prices, but remained stable, falling slightly from 1.7% last week, which was a year-long high. International oil prices were under downward pressure due to concerns about the safety of the AZ vaccine, but crude oil stocks fell sharply than expected and rose slightly. West Texas crude (WTI) prices for May on the New York Commercial Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $59.77 per barrel, up $0.44 (0.74%) from the previous day. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.

<Table 2=Status of increase/decrease in return by asset category/data=Chicago Commercial Exchange, USA>
<Figure 8=Year-Year-Year-Year Trends by Asset Category/Data=Trading View>

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 8, 14:00) <Weakness>

The price of most cryptocurrencies is being adjusted as the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen as the selling pressure on the market has increased over the past two days. However, a number of stocks that are rising even in the downtrend, such as Binance Coin (BNB, +57.05%) and Ripple (XRP, +25.73%), which are the 3rd place in market cap, have attracted attention.

As of 14 o’clock on the 8th, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked first with 921.88%, 2nd with Cardano (ADA) with 575.40%, and Uniswap (UNI) with 511.01% 3rd and Polkadot (Polka Dot). DOT) ranked 4th with 381.61% and Ripple (XRP) 5th with 289.01%.

<Figure 9=Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies in market capitalization compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Strengthening>

Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.

<Figure 10=(Left) BTC on-chain trading volume index of major exchanges/(right) ETH on-chain trading volume index of major exchanges/data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Looking at indicators 1 and 2 (BTC, ETH spot trading volume) in Figure 10, it can be seen that the trading volume of both stocks increased compared to the previous day along with the price increase. In addition, if you look at indicators 3 and 4, the total number of purchases on the day is greater than the total number of sales, and the price volatility index is upward, indicating that it is a short-term rebound. In addition, since Ethereum recorded the largest number of sells since the previous day, it would be reasonable to see that Ethereum price rises unless there are more sells than this.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

As the prices of bitcoin and Ethereum decline, and in the case of bitcoin, even short-term investors attempting arbitrage trading are added, the relationship between the two stocks’ kimchi premium index is getting more complicated. The kimchi premium plummeted to 11% last night, when the bulk sales, which seemed to be arbitrage traders, were opened through the domestic Upbit exchange last night, which exceeded about 21% of Bitcoin’s kimchi premium. However, in terms of the distribution, it still records high numbers and shows an unstable appearance, so you should watch it with interest.

<Figure 11-1=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=Cryptoquant>

Ethereum’s Kimchi premium index is still high, and even crossing has occurred. Before Ethereum’s Kimchi premium index goes down again, it seems that we need to be careful about new purchases of Ethereum.

<Figure 11-2=Comparison of Ethereum Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trends/Data=Cryptoquant>

③Bitcoin balance and MVRV analysis of all exchanges <strong>

Figure 12-1 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. The bitcoin balance held by all exchanges on the previous day (Figure 12-1) appears to have dropped sharply, and the price of bitcoin on the day is expected to rise.

<Figure 12-1=Bitcoin (BTC) market price and comparison of Bitcoin balances held by major exchanges/Data=Cryptoquant>

In addition, the bitcoin price has recently turned to high valuation as seen in MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) (Figure 12-2), and it is highly likely that the price of bitcoin will further slow down due to this trend.

<Figure 12-2=Bitcoin (BTC) Price and BTC MVRV Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>

④ Analysis of average amount withdrawn from all exchange wallets

Figure 12-3 shows the average amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from all exchange wallets. When the price was low, there was a large buy, but after that, the attempt to break through the resistance of the US$60,000 level is difficult or the momentum of the uptrend is expected to slightly slow down for the time being.

<Figure 12-3=Bitcoin (BTC) market price and comparison of Bitcoin balances held by major exchanges/data=Cryptoquant>

Ethereum seems to be more active in withdrawal than Bitcoin, and it can be seen that there have been two large withdrawals even at the recent price peak.This means that there are long-term investors who believe that it is well worth investing even at this price point, so the price of Ethereum can be expected to increase further. have.

<Figure 12-4=Bitcoin (BTC) Price and Bitcoin Balance Trends in Major Exchanges/Data=CryptoQuant>

◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Neutral>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from the bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 72.74% at 10 o’clock in the rising position, which was 72.74%. The proportion decreased by 0.30% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option)-18.71%: (put option)-3.10% to (call option)-3.70%: (put option) 5.99% In terms of synthetic positions, it is analyzed that options market participants expect price declines as bitcoin rises.

<Figure 13-1=Analysis of non-payment agreements for Bitcoin options of major exchanges as of 10 o’clock (top) and 14 o’clock (bottom) on the 8th = Data/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

On the other hand, in the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of pending contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the same day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the number of contracts was 42.54% at 10 o’clock in the rising position, which was 42.54%. The proportion decreased to 14.83% at 14 o’clock, and as a premium standard, 10 o’clock (call option)-14.56%: (put option)-8.16% to (call option)-18.08%: (put option) 5.89% It was analyzed that there could be a short-term downturn shock ahead of the same-day maturity settlement.

<Figure 13-2=Analysis of Bitcoin options open contracts of Deribit Exchange as of 10:00 (upper) and 14:00 (lower) on the 8th: Data/Data = Aimrich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Major Bitcoin futures status (as of 14:00 on the 8th)

◆DeriBit bitcoin option status (as of 14:00 on the 8th)

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