[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Bitcoin Uptrend Return… Over 40,000 dollars “before your eyes”

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Aim Rich Cryptocurrency Investment Information (2021.2.4)
<Figure 1=Market trend score as of 14:00 on the 4th (100 points, left)/Market rise/fall intensity (right)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

With Bitcoin (BTC) turning to an upward trend in one month, it is noteworthy whether Bitcoin will once again lead the rise of the cryptocurrency market. In the morning, as short-term sales due to the surge the previous day were opened, the market that had been pushed back is gradually increasing as the low-priced buying trend inflows. As of 14:00 on the 4th, the cryptocurrency exchange Binance BTCUSDT has been rising by 1.20% since its opening, and the same exchange’s ETHUSDT is rising by 0.67% and DOTUSDT by 0.56%. However, Ripple (XRP, -1.38%), Bitcoin Cash (BCH, -0.21%), and Chainlink (LINK, -0,47%) are still weak.

Last night, the New York Stock Market in the United States was differentiated by diversification according to the earnings announcement. Google soared 7% on the announcement of good performance, but Amazon fell on news of Jeff Bezos’ resignation, despite good results. The recovery of the economy is becoming visible, with private employment rising more than expected, but the market was mixed as concerns over the size of the Biden government’s stimulus measures were growing. At the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the 3rd (local time) the day before, the Dow Jones 30 industry average rose 0.12% from the battlefield and the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index rose 0.10%, but the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index closed down 0.016%. .

As of 14:00 on the 4th, the price of bitcoin based on CoinMarket Cap is $31,745.60, the 24-hour trading volume is about $65.1 billion, and the market cap is about $706.4 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $1,145.7 billion, and the Bitcoin market cap share is 61.7%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 0.83% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 0.59% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin stronger than Altcoin, and the market cap of bitcoin increased 0.97% compared to the previous day. The market share of the company increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, indicating that the market as a whole has fewer coins rising than the bitcoin price.

<Figure 2=Status of Real-Time Cryptocurrency Market/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which had been strong for about two hours right after opening, turned to weakness around 11 o’clock, but it is trying to rise as a low-priced buying trend is inflow. However, it was analyzed that the buying trend for mid-sized stocks was rather weak. W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, +0.15%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, -0.52%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, +0.22%, and WMC, a medium-sized stock-oriented index. -0.57% WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +0.64%.

<Figure 3=Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the past 24 hours/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>
<Table 1=Ratio of Longs/Shorts trading volume of major exchanges as of 14:00 on the 4th/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

As of 14 o’clock on the 4th, the cumulative buy:sell transaction volume ratio of the last 24 hours at major cryptocurrency exchanges was 49%:51%, and the sell ratio was high, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio results of each exchange varied by exchange. Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around 26.0, and the basis of Contango and Ethereum futures was maintained at around 1.90. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. February futures traded at $38,490.0, up $1100.0 (+2.94%) from the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <strong>

As of 14:00 on the 4th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price rose 2.71% compared to the previous day to 4,0423,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) rose 2.07% to 1.77 million won, and Polkadot (DOT) rose 2.51% to 22,030 won. Recorded. Ripple (XRP) was 416 won the same as the day before, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose by 0.06% to 468,850 won, Ada (ADA) was 463 won, the same as the day before, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) fell 1.10% to 359 won, Chain LINK is trading at 26,470 won, up 0.99% from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 162,200 won, down 0.31%.

<Figure 4=Upbit BTC/KRW Daily Chart/Data=Trading View>
<Figure 5=Top 10 Coin Price (As of February 4, 14:00)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is on the rise among the top 10 stocks by market cap as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $38,001.22, up 4.16% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 8.09% to $1,667.89, while Polkadot (DOT) rose 21.44% to $21.44. Ripple (XRP) rose 1.70% to $0.3862, Cardano (ADA) rose 1.70% to $0.4349, Litecoin (LTC) rose by 0.00% to $151.91, Chainlink (LINK) rose by 2.83% to $23.06, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell 0.13% to $435.77, while Binance Coin (BNB) rose 4.29% to $52.88.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <strong>

As Bitcoin recovers from a strong upward trend, expectations for a $40,000 recovery in the market are intensifying, and experts’ optimistic outlook continues. However, some voices are wary that a potential dollar strength is a short-term risk to Bitcoin’s bullish prospects. You should also be aware of the price volatility that the $1 billion bitcoin option is due tomorrow.

(Positive opinion)

① “Bitcoin has maintained an uptrend for the last two days in a row. According to the chart on the 1st, the short-term buying trend is clear.” As expected.

② Bloomberg’s chief product strategist Mike McGlon said in his February Crypto Outlook report, comparing and analyzing the volatility of major assets such as Bitcoin, the Dow, and Gold, “As the next half-life is scheduled for 2024, as the supply of bitcoin is reached, “The volatility will continue to decline and will be at the same level as gold.” He added, “McGlon cannot ignore unexpected variables in the process of technological development, but as long as technological advancements and digitalization continue to progress, Bitcoin will eventually become a worthy substitute for gold in its investment portfolio. “I will.”

③ Guggenheim Partners Chief Investment Officer Scott Minard said, “We basically did a lot of research. Comparing the amount of bitcoin supply to gold, if bitcoin keeps going at this number, it will be between $400,000 and $600,000 per bitcoin. “I think it will record the price.” In addition, he said, “Even if bitcoin cannot record the price he said, there is still a lot of room for an increase.” However, the miner said that bitcoin exceeds the current price level. It maintained its existing position that it did not have the institutional support to stand up.

④ Trustnode recently reported that the price of bitcoin has risen by about 20% in one week as institutional investors’ interest in bitcoin as digital gold has increased.

⑤Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital and former White House Communications Commissioner, said, “buying bitcoin now is like buying Amazon stock in the past,” and “I am confident that the value of bitcoin will not drop to zero.” Said.

⑥ Cryptocurrency analyst Cole Peterson analyzed that “because of the low-cost buying strategy of the buying forces, the strength of bitcoin is seldom showing signs of decline.” Analyst Peterson said, “The selling forces are striving to gain momentum, but this is insufficient compared to the current bulls.” “In the future, the medium-term bitcoin trend will depend on whether or not it breaks through more than $40,000.” He predicted that Bitcoin could surpass $40,000 thanks to several key technical factors. He also explained that for Bitcoin to show parabolic progress, it must break through the record high of $42,000.

⑦ Cryptocurrency media news BTC said, “Bitcoin may show some momentum in the medium term. Accordingly, Bitcoin is aiming at $40,700 which can act as a short-term resistance.”

⑧Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, a US cryptocurrency exchange, said, “The current Ethereum price ($1,500) is still undervalued.” The possibilities are endless in the long run.”

⑨Cryptocurrency analyst Alex Krüger predicted that “the probability is that Bitcoin will exceed 40,000 dollars.” However, he pointed out that “potential dollar strength is a short-term risk to Bitcoin’s bullish prospects.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

Bitcoin’s daily market price (see Figure 6), which had been raising the bottom within the box range, has recovered to the $38,000 level at once thanks to a strong buying trend for two days in a row, and is undergoing a sale process. Since the peak was formed on January 8, it has turned to an upward trend by supporting the $30,000 mark for about a month, and technically it has broken through the upper trend line of the triangular convergence, so the target price can be expected in detail. (Highest before the 1st: $41,950 / Technical target for the 2nd: $46,494)

On the day, as short-term sales due to the surge are opened, intraday prices may fall. This is a good time to buy more, so there is no need to fear the decline. This is because, according to the results of the lab’s bitcoin option expiration settlement price simulation, the expected settlement price of the bitcoin option on February 5 of the DRBT exchange expected the next day is expected to exceed the high price of the day and exceed $40,000. .

<Figure 6=BTC/USDT (Binance) Daily Price (Based on 14:00 on the 4th)/Chart=Trading View>

On the other hand, today is the settlement date of February 4th for Bitcoin and Ethereum options on the Deribit (DRBT) exchange. Options due today are expected to have a somewhat less impact on the market as the strike price is small and the outstanding contracts are relatively small compared to other maturities, but 1) the simulation result is expected to be settled lower than the current market price around $36,500, and 2) In fact, even if the distribution of outstanding contracts around the exercise price is analyzed, there are almost no outstanding contracts near the current price of 38,000 dollars, so it is highly likely that they will be in a different position from the current price around 17:00, requiring caution. (See Figure 7)

<Figure 9=Deribit (DRBT) BTC Option Simulation Results of Expected Water Payment Price on February 4 (at 14:00)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

The price of Binance BTC/USDT, which was calculated by the institute’s quant program, is $33,513 (pink line). Of course, if the bitcoin price rebounds strongly above the previous day’s high price and the day’s market price, it is a good opportunity to buy, so you can buy it. However, although such attempts have been continued so far, all of them have been canceled, and the current market price is expected to decline toward the above-mentioned $33,513, as the current price deviated from both the high price of the previous day and the market price of the day.

Therefore, you will have to hold your purchase until this price is reached. In addition, it is recommended that the bitcoin market price from $33,513 on the day of the 5th moving average line to the 5th day’s moving average line to rebound and try to buy in installments, but take a break from the 5th moving average line as a stop loss criterion and respond. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis

As of 14:00 on the 4th, the technical analysis of the daily price movements of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’buy’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 7 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 0’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’ opinions, and’Strong Buy’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is 12’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.

<Figure 10=Upbit: BTC/KRW (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 7,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 0, sending a’active buy’ signal.The moving average indicator is’Buy’ with 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with zero.

<Figure 11=Binance: BTC/USDT (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

The’Fear and Greed Index’ provided by the cryptocurrency data provider Alternative.me maintained the extreme greed stage of the previous day to 80 points, up 2 points from the previous day. The index closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism.

<Figure 11=Crypto Fear and Greed Index/Data=Alternative.Me>

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of February 4, 14:00) <Strengthening>

As the bitcoin price turned up in earnest, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year rose 10.74% to 18.51% from last Tuesday, rising to the No. 1 growth rate among valuation asset classes, and oil futures, which have been strong since the beginning of the year, 5.04%. It rose to 17.49%, ranking second with a slight margin. During the same period, while the dollar was searching for a direction in the consolidation zone, the gold price fell and the stock price moved up. The previous day, oil prices rose after the level of US crude oil stocks reached the lowest point since March last year, and gold prices ended at a strong consolidation due to the weak dollar.

<Table 2=Status of increase/decrease in return by asset category/Data=Chicago Commercial Exchange, USA>
<Figure 12=Year-to-Year-Year Trends by Asset Category/Data=Trading View>

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of February 4, 14:00) <Strengthening>

As the price of cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, has risen significantly, competition for individual cryptocurrencies against the beginning of the year is also intensifying. The yields from the 1st to 4th place in the market cap exceeded 100%, and the 5th place Ripple (XRP) also reached 63%. However, since Binance Coin (BNB), the 6th place, is only 39.56%, it is analyzed that there is a wide gap in the rate of increase, and the full altcoin season has not yet arrived.

As of 14:00 on the 4th, Polkadot (DOT) ranked 1st with 152.71% at the beginning of the year, and Cardano (ADA) ranked 2nd with 147.84%, and Ethereum (ETH) ranked 3rd with 126.88%. , LINK ranked 4th with 109.40% and Ripple (XRP) 5th with 63.05%.

<Figure 13=Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies in market cap compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of Bitcoin transaction volume on the day <Strengthening>

Analyzing the transaction volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Index 1 in Figure 11 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini). Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.

<Figure 14=Comparison of total BTC spot trading volume and total BTC derivatives trading volume on major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

The bitcoin price, which was preparing to rise while raising the low, strongly broke the top of the box and started to erupt the market. It can be seen that the index 1 in Figure 14, which shows the total amount of the spot transaction volume of bitcoin occurring on major exchanges, is also continuously increasing, adding confidence in the price of bitcoin, and index 2 is the derivative of the rising period. It can be seen that commodity transactions are decreasing. From the same-day indicator in Figure 15, it can be expected that today’s price movement will progress considerably as the rising price volatility will decrease, and the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales are similar, but the form of the daily salary is actually formed in the form of’doji’. . The big direction of the short-term market is’up’, but it is difficult to predict the direction of the market on the day, so short-term trading responses require more attention.

<Figure 15=Comparison of total daily BTC purchases and sales of major exchanges/data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

Interesting facts can be found by drawing the difference between the price of bitcoin listed on domestic and foreign exchanges (hereinafter referred to as Kimchi Premium Index) on the bitcoin price chart and comparing this trend. In the period of price increase, the bitcoin price is higher than the kimchi premium index, and in the period of price decline, the bitcoin price is lower than the kimchi premium index, and the highest and lowest point, respectively, when the price difference widens.

As the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum formed a strong upward trend, the gap between the two prices of kimchi premium indexes has become significantly distant, and the risk factor to be warned of as a decline indicator has become lower. If the indicator doesn’t rise above ‘0’ again, it doesn’t seem to be a big concern.

<Figure 16=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>
<Figure 17=Comparison of Ethereum Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trends/Data=Cryptoquant>

◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Strengthening>

Looking at the result of analyzing the proportion of all open contracts for Bitcoin options of Delibit (DBRT), which expires on the 4th day (see Figure 18), as of 14:00, the increase in premium is 2.85% in terms of premium and 27.51% in terms of number of contracts. In addition, it is expected to maintain the upward trend in the afternoon hours. However, since the event is expected to be settled at around $36,000, pending contracts are concentrated, so you should check how this volume is resolved.

<Figure 18=Analysis of non-payment agreements for Bitcoin options issued by Deribit as of 14:00 on the 4th> Data/Data = Aimrich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

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