[Aim-Rich Investment Strategy] Bitcoin’s strong turn and expanding altcoin dominance


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Aim Rich Cryptocurrency Investment Information (2021.4.27)
<Figure 1-1=Market trend score as of 14:00 on the 27th (100 points, left)/Market rise/fall intensity (right)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

Bitcoin (BTC), which showed a slight bearish trend in the morning, turned to strong again. As Bitcoin continues to recover, Altcoin’s dominance (market cap share) is expanding further. In particular, recently, it is observed that altcoins will rebound largely, centering on Ethereum (ETH).This is due to the change in the Ethereum supply plan after the hard fork scheduled in July, and the demand for Ethereum increases, resulting in a large amount of funds. This is because it is moving from coins to Ethereum. Ethereum will introduce Ethereum Feature Proposal-1559 (EIP-1559), which improves fees through a hard fork update in July this year.When EIP-1559 is installed, Ethereum used as fees is burned. It is expected that the effect of reducing the amount of supply of Leeum will occur.

As of 14 o’clock on the 27th, the Bitcoin market cap price is $53,439.32, the 24-hour trading volume is about $53 billion, and the market cap is about $1.3 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2126 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 49.7%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 14.4%.

The US stock market last night ended mixedly ahead of major tech companies’ earnings releases this week. The NASDAQ index reached an all-time high for the first time since February 12, in response to earnings expectations from technology companies. On the 26th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average fell 0.18% from the previous trading day, but the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index and the Technology Stock-oriented Nasdaq Index were 0.18% and 0.87%, respectively. Rose.

The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 0.49% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased by 0.01% compared to the previous day, making altcoins stronger than bitcoin, and the market cap of bitcoin decreased by 0.97% compared to the previous day. It was analyzed that while the market share of Bitcoin decreased by 0.49% compared to the previous day, altcoins were on average rising.

Meanwhile, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, it was analyzed that while the market was mixed on the day, investors were selling bitcoin and large altcoin stocks. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -0.10%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.45%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is -0.48%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC recorded +1.08% and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +4.73%.

<Figure 1-3=Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the past 24 hours/data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>
<Table 1=Percentage of Longs/Shorts Transaction Volumes of Major Exchanges as of 14:00 on the 27th/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

As of 14 o’clock on the 27th, the cumulative buying:selling volume ratio of the last 24 hours at major cryptocurrency exchanges was 50%:50%, and it was analyzed that the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14 o’clock was strong. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, the basis of bitcoin futures on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX is around +58.5, and the basis of backwardation and Ethereum futures is also around -1.05. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is falling. May futures traded at $53,782.5, down $287.5 (-0.53%) from the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 27th, the cryptocurrency market price is falling. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 63.72 million won, down 0.74% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 2975,000 won, down 0.97%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

<Figure 2-1=Market/Data of Major Stocks of Upbit=Upbit>

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market is on the rise based on coin market cap, and as of the last 24 hours, eight of the top 10 stocks in market capitalization are rising. International Bitcoin (BTC) prices rose 2.59% from the same time the day before to $53,439.32, while Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.47% to $2,492.39. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.

<Figure 2-2=Top 10 Coin Price (As of April 27, 14:00)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <Strengthening>

As Tesla revealed that it has sold some bitcoin, more attention is paid to the price direction of bitcoin, but cryptocurrency market analysts maintained affirmation, saying that the price recovery trend has not yet broken. In addition, the voice that Bitcoin’s outlook depends on whether it easily breaks through the $55,000 range in the future is empowering.

In addition, on-chain data analysts predicted that the cryptocurrency exchange’s BTC holdings are still on the decline, and the supply will not support demand, so the price will rise.As miners are hesitant to sell, the probability of mass selling will also be low. have.

(Positive opinion)

① David Grider, an analyst at Cryptocurrency Analysis Company FundStrat, said, “Bitcoin volatility may continue in the short term, but there will be no collapse of 80% compared to the peak like the 2017 bull market.” Presented at $100,000.

② Cryptocurrency analyst Raoul Pal said, “It is an opportunity, not a threat, that there is an adjustment in the bull market.”

③Cryptocurrency analyst Plan B said, “Although it has plunged by 25% in one week, the bull market march in bitcoin could lead to a new normal.” “After the current bull market, the bitcoin price peaked at $288,000 per coin. I will be able to take a picture,” he predicted.

④ Cryptocurrency analyst Rakeshi Upedjehi said, “Bitcoin fell to $46,985 on the 25th, but it hit the bottom and quickly escaped the decline. This is the result of the recent continued inflow of low-priced purchases.” . He added that the recent decline in bitcoin was a golden opportunity for investors to buy bitcoin cheaply. It also analyzes that Bitcoin is currently facing resistance around $55,000. He predicted, “If the bitcoin price breaks the 50-day moving average of $56,903, it will easily break through $61,825.” On the other hand, he predicted that “if the support line fails to rise around $55,385 and the support line breaks, it could fall further to $46,985 and $43,006.”

⑤ Katy Stockton, technical analyst at Fairlead Strategy, a cryptocurrency analysis company, predicted that this recovery could continue momentum. “This uptrend will continue this week,” he said. However, the recent loss of mid-term momentum suggests that the bitcoin resistance line will form below $62,000.” Conversely, Bitcoin is perceived cheaply at $40,000. In the long-term uptrend, the measure of the downtrend is around the $42,000 level.”

⑥ Jason Lau, Chief Operating Officer of Cryptocurrency Exchange OKCoin, predicted continued market recovery and further uptrend. “With leverage and derivatives activity still at all-time highs, the size of Bitcoin futures pending commitments fell by more than 30% from its peak. The recovery in this situation could lead to another momentum.”

⑦ Cryptocurrency specialty media Coinist quoted analyst Luke Martin, “It doesn’t matter if Tesla sells about 10% of its bitcoin holdings,” he said. “There are new types of buyers such as corporate whales that hold bitcoins for a long time. The fact is still optimistic.” Luke Martin explained that even after Tesla sold Bitcoin, it didn’t fall as much as expected, which is a positive sign.

(Negative opinion)

① Cryptocurrency media, NewsBt, analyzed, “Bitcoin has shown a recovery trend over the past 24 hours, but it seems to react negatively as Tesla’s report is released.” At the time Tesla announced that it had bought Bitcoin, the price of bitcoin rose from $38,000 to $53,000, and this sale could have the opposite result. “Tesla can freely exert pressure to sell bitcoins in the market, but it should not deviate from the company’s financial management plans,” said Newsbitt.

② CoinDesk, a media specializing in cryptocurrency, reported that “it has risen above 53,000 dollars after a rebound rally, but technically, doubts about the continuation of bitcoin’s rebound are being raised.” The moving average convergence and divergence index (MACD) of the Bitcoin weekly chart has retreated to the negative area, signaling that the market atmosphere has turned weak. MACD is an index that measures the change of trend and the intensity of the trend. CoinDesk pointed out that on the past weekly charts, the MACD has weakened 10 times, seven of which have led to further declines in prices, which is why the MACD’s weakness is raising concerns among bitcoin bulls.

③ Michael Gode, CEO of Global Digital Assets, a trading company, said, “The reporting of various media greatly influences the price behavior of the cryptocurrency market.” “There are more and more regulations on digital assets around the world. As a result, investors will take a more conservative approach than before and try to diversify the risk by selling some assets.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

Bitcoin daily market price (see Figure 5-1), which recovered the moving average line on the 5th due to the strong rebound of the market the day before, broke through the sales process on the morning of the day, broke through the high price on the previous day, and began to rise further. Technically, the top of the cloud belt and the 60-day moving average line are acting as resistance, but a smooth upward trend is expected from the 20-day moving average line to the $58,000 level.

In addition, there may be resistance in the $58,000 section, but it is expected to form a strong upward trend that fills the gap in the $60,000 section formed by the fall of the US CME Bitcoin futures. We recommend that you anticipate and respond to the uptrend until it reaches point 2 in Figure 5-1 (approximately $61,000).

<Figure 5-1=BTC/USDT (Binance) Daily Price (Based on 14:00 on the 27th)/Chart=Trading View

Today, as it is the expiration date of the daily options of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange, intraday fluctuations according to the option position are expected.As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the expected settlement price for the two stocks is around $53,000 and $2,400, respectively. Was predicted. The price movement of the two stocks on the day was also modest. The predicted price is down, but on the contrary, the bitcoin option has a strike price of 53,000 or less, all call options are strong up to $49,000, and the Ethereum strike price, such as $2,520, is strong and the $2,540 put option is falling. There is a growing likelihood that the power will dominate. (Refer to the’Analysis of the Share of Bitcoin Option Open Agreements on the Day’ on page 15)

<Figure 5-3=Deribit (DRBT) BTC Option Simulation Results of Expected Water Settlement Price on April 27 (at 14:00)/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change on the day of $52,370. The current bitcoin market price exceeded the market price of $52,370 on the day and the high price of the day before, so 1) you can try to buy by targeting the moving average on the 20th when the second low is formed from the previous day’s high price. However, if the rising market breaks through the high price of the previous day and the market price of the day, the purchase must be liquidated and a wait is required. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis <Weakness>

As of 14 o’clock on the 27th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were found to be’sell’ and’neutral’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 3 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit were’Buy’, 8’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’ opinions and’Sell’ opinions, and the moving average indicators are 6’Buy’ and 6 It was summarized as a’neutral’ opinion as a suggestion’sell’.

<Figure 6-1=Upbit: BTC/KRW (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

If you look at the detailed items of Binance,’Buy’ is 0,’Sell’ is 6, and’Neutral’ is 3 of the oscillator indicators. ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with 5 cases.

<Figure 6-2=Binance: BTC/USDT (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Neutral>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ rose by 23 points from the previous day (27) to 50, a step up to’neutral’. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

<Figure 7=Crypto Fear and Greed Index/Data=Alternative.Me>

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 27, 14:00) <Weakness>

Bitcoin prices have rebounded over the past two days, with the falling dollar and gold prices showing preference for risky assets, but the previous decline seems to be a long way to go. As of 14:00 on the 27th, the US CME Bitcoin futures return to the beginning of the year was 71.38%, down 4.88% from the previous Tuesday. During the same period, the gold futures and dollar index fell 0.66% and 0.30%, while the S&P 500 and oil futures rose 0.38% and 1.84%.

The previous day, international oil prices fell as demand for crude oil is expected to decrease due to concerns about the spread of Corona 19 from India. On the 26th (Eastern Time), the price of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) for June on the New York Commercial Exchange closed at $61.91 per barrel, down 23 cents (0.4%) from the battlefield. Oil prices fell by more than 2% during the day on concerns that the global demand for crude oil could decrease due to the surge in confirmed cases of Corona 19 in India. It is also predicted that if global oil demand decreases due to the Corona 19 crisis in India on that day, major oil producing countries may postpone their plans to gradually increase production. Due to the spread of Corona 19 in India, OPEC+ oil producing countries meeting on the 28th of this week are expected to pay attention to the uncertainty surrounding the demand outlook. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.

<Table 2=Status of increase/decrease in return by asset category/data=Chicago Commercial Exchange, USA>
<Figure 8=Year-Year-Year-Year Trends by Asset Category/Data=Trading View>

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of April 27, 14:00) <Strengthening>

As the price of bitcoin rebounded, the price of most cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, rose. Among them, the strength of Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest market cap, is attracting particular attention. It is noteworthy whether it will be able to break through the new record once again in anticipation of the London hard fork scheduled for July. The current Ethereum market cap is about $292.5 billion, and the dominance (share of market cap) is 14.6%. In addition, the number of Ethereum whale addresses with more than 10,000 ETH (ETH) increased by 1,311 last week, recording the largest increase in history.

As of 14 o’clock on the 27th, DOGE ranked first with 4,613.38%, 2nd with Binance Coin (BNB) with 1,312.11%, and 3rd with Uniswap with 699.36%, Cardano. ADA) ranked 4th with 614.20% and Ripple (XRP) 5th with 508.80%.

<Figure 9=Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies in market capitalization compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Neutral>

Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.

<Figure 10=(Left) BTC on-chain trading volume index of major exchanges/(right) ETH on-chain trading volume index of major exchanges/data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

If you look at indicators 1 and 2 (BTC, ETH spot trading volume) in Figure 10, it can be seen that the price trend of the two stocks will not be easily reversed as the price trend of the two stocks is largely maintained, but if you look at indicators 3 and 4, the total quantity sold is the total. As the price volatility index of Ethereum, which was higher than the number of purchases, was lowering, the market is expected to weaken or rise on the same day, and then sell off at the peak.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

As the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum rose, the kimchi premium index of the two stocks also stabilized. Although it is still above ‘0’, we believe that the conditions for maintaining the rising trend of cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are sufficiently maintained.

<Figure 11-1=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=Cryptoquant>
<Figure 11-2=Comparison of Ethereum Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trends/Data=Cryptoquant>

③ Analysis of the balance of Bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <Strengthening>

Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. The exchange’s bitcoin balance increased during the declining period from the 22nd to the 24th, and this quantity is expected to act as a short-term sale after the first rise of bitcoin. If so, we believe it is an opportunity to buy more.

<Figure 12=Bitcoin (BTC) market price and comparison of Bitcoin balances held by major exchanges/Data=Cryptoquant>

◇Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>

As a result of analyzing the proportion of outstanding contracts aggregated from all bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts rose from 31.70% at 10 o’clock. The position portion decreased slightly to 25.62% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option) 1.78%: (put option) 15.52% to (call option) -13.64%: (put option)-6.68% It appears that they are using a strategy to sell both options premiums. Therefore, it is analyzed that the option market participants are predicting that the market will gradually decline on the same day while using a selling strategy that expected a decrease in the higher premium.

<Figure 13-1=Analysis of non-payment agreements for Bitcoin options of major exchanges as of 10:00 (top) and 14:00 (bottom) on the 27th = Data/Data = Aimrich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

<Strengthening> On the other hand, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange in the same way (see Figure 13-2), 9.47% based on the number of contracts at 10 o’clock. The percentage of the rising position that was at 14 o’clock maintained a similar level at 10.31%, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option)-2.54%: (put option)-4.00% to (call option)-3.46%: (put option) ) The premium is expected to remain low at 2.77%, and the market is expected to show an overall uptrend ahead of the maturity settlement (17:00).

<Figure 13-2=Analysis data/data for non-payment agreement of Bitcoin options of Deribit Exchange as of 10:00 (upper) and 14:00 (lower) on the 27th = Aimrich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 27th)

◇Deribit Bitcoin options status (as of 14:00 on the 27th)

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