[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Confrontation between Buying and Selling Forces Ahead of Bitcoin Breakthrough of 50,000 Dollars

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Aim Rich Cryptocurrency Investment Information (2021.2.16)
<Figure 1=Market trend score as of 14 o’clock on the 16th (100 points, left)/Market rise/fall intensity (right)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

The cryptocurrency market fell into a lull again as the sale was opened in the afternoon when Bitcoin did not cross the $50,000 resistance line. According to on-chain data (see page 17), it is analyzed that it has entered a confrontation between a buy and sell tax ahead of the $50,000 break. Bitcoin (BTC), the number one cryptocurrency market capitalization, hit an all-time high of $49,700, immediately fell by about $3,000, and then rebounded, and is currently trading around $49,000. While Bitcoin remains strong, most altcoins are also rising.

European stocks rose sharply as US stocks closed Monday on President’s Day last night. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of Dubai oil in the European market was confirmed, which is attributed to the anticipation of a cold wave in the US and Europe and the recovery of the corona, and this trend is expected to continue for the time being.

As of 14:00 on the 16th, the price of Bitcoin based on CoinMarket Cap is $31,745.60, the 24-hour trading volume is about $73 billion, and the market cap is about $910 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $1.487 trillion, and the market cap share of Bitcoin is 61.1%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 1.94% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 1.76% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin stronger than Altcoin, and the market cap of Bitcoin increased 2.06% compared to the previous day. The market share of the company increased by 0.11% compared to the previous day, indicating that the market as a whole has fewer coins that rise more than the bitcoin price.

<Figure 2=Status of Real-Time Cryptocurrency Market/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Meanwhile, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which had declined slightly after the opening, turned upward around 10 o’clock, maintaining overall strength. W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +2.12%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +1.92%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, +2.05%, and WMC, a medium-sized stock-oriented index. +3.22% WSC, an index focused on small stocks, recorded +2.75%.

<Figure 3=Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the past 24 hours/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>
<Table 1=Ratio of Longs/Shorts trading volume of major exchanges as of 14:00 on the 16th/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

As of 14:00 on the 16th, the ratio of the buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours at the major cryptocurrency exchanges was 51%:49%, with a high buy ratio, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio result of each exchange was strong in the spot exchange. Analyzed. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around 70.0, and the basis of Contango and Ethereum futures was around 3.70. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. February futures traded at $49,405.0, an increase of $585.0 (+1.19%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices

As of 14:00 on the 16th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price rose 2.38% from the previous day to 5,3792,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.18% to 1.97 million won, and Polkadot (DOT) rose 3.90% to 31,670 won. Recorded. Ripple (XRP) rose 1.66% from the previous day to 614 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 0.54% to 537,900 won, Ada (ADA) rose 1.48% to 956 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) rose 1.48% to 549 won. , Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 35,490 won, down 1.00% compared to the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 233,550 won, up 2.64%.

<Figure 4=Upbit BTC/KRW Daily Chart/Data=Trading View>
<Figure 5=Top 10 Coin Price (As of February 16, 14:00)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is on the rise among the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of 24 hours ago, excluding Tether. The international bitcoin (BTC) price is $48,918.36, up 4.88% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 4.95% to $1,798.62, while Cardano (ADA) rose 12.90% to $0.8826. Polkadot (DOT) rose 12.68% to $21.44, Ripple (XRP) rose 4.54% to $0.5637, Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 3.94% to $130.11, Litecoin (LTC) rose 9.70% to $214.19, Bitcoin, and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 10.22% to $715.03, and Chainlink (LINK) rose 5.47% to $32.42.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <strong>

Recently, the news that Elon Musk’s Tesla has bought about $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin, and that New York Melon Bank (BNY Mellon) and Mastercard, the oldest banks in the United States, are handling digital tokens, the bitcoin price Despite the re-breaking of $48,000 and the market capitalization exceeding $900 billion, the bitcoin price failed to settle at the $48,000 mark and is currently not exceeding the box market in the range of $46,000 to $48,000. A number of market analysts have analyzed that in the short term, the inflow of stablecoins into major exchanges has steadily increased as bitcoin prices have converged below $48,000 over the past few days, and institutional demand is increasing in the medium to long term. The combination of and ultra-low interest rates is expected to allow Bitcoin to continue the rally to a new high of over $50,000 this year.

(Positive opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Aayush Jindal predicted, “As long as the BTC/USD pair exceeds $46,000 and $45,000, the price is expected to rebound.”

② Bitcoin-focused analyst’Plan B’said, “Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on a similar path to that of the previous cycle,” and predicted that the rising rally of Bitcoin will continue in the future.

③Data analysis platform Cryptoquant saw a significant increase in the supply ratio (SSR) as the stablecoin recovered from the mid-30,000 dollars. In addition, it was analyzed that the low sales pressure from miners also fueled this bitcoin rally. This trend explained that this rally is not a mere aftermath of the excess futures market, so optimistic observations dominate. “If you’re a long-term investor, now is the right time to buy bitcoin,” said Ju Ji-young, CEO of Crypto Quant. In this regard, he predicted, “I’m not sure how much the adjustment will be going forward, but the on-chain indicators are saying that there are enough stablecoins compared to the bitcoins deposited on the exchange, so it could rise again.”

④ Yahoo Finance said, “According to the’Black-Scholes model’, the most widely used option price valuation model for calculating the price of options, the bitcoin option market will remain open until the end of December. “We see a 12% probability that the price will rise to more than $100,000,” he said.

⑤ Fitch, one of the world’s top three credit rating firms, diagnosed, “There is still a long way to go in order for cryptocurrency to become’mainstream’. However, there are many potential strengths that can be utilized.” The report said, “Recently, the number of traditional global financial institutions showing interest in cryptographic assets is increasing. This will promote the’modernization’ of the financial system in the mid- to long-term, even if it does not bring about immediate change. Then, “until cryptocurrency becomes the mainstream. There is still a long way to go. However, there are obvious potential benefits such as increased payment speed, cost reduction, and simplified payment process. If a clear regulatory framework and global consensus are premised, it will soon implement global money movement around the clock.”

⑥ MicroStrategy CEO Michael Sailor said, “Bitcoin will be the world’s first unified currency network. When everyone connects to the digital currency network, they will experience a similar experience to the internet connection in the past. BTC is Google, Facebook It will be more than 100 times larger than the back,” he predicted. “When Amazon and Google were born, I thought that high-tech companies with the future emerged. These companies connected people around the world to the’Internet’, and our daily lives changed 180 degrees.”

⑦ Cryptocurrency trader Jacob Canfield predicted, “Once bitcoin exceeds 50,000 dollars, it will show a strong rally and reach 100,000 dollars within 30 to 60 days.” He said more than $1 billion of stablecoins (value stabilization coins) are waiting to push the price of bitcoin to $100,000. Representative stablecoins include Tether, USD Coin, and Paxos, and are recognized as’stable’ because their value is linked (pegged) 1:1 with the US dollar. In general, as the supply of stablecoins increases, the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins rise.

(Negative opinion)

① “Bitcoin is a failure,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a famous American essayist and economist and author of the best-selling Black Swan. “Basically, money shouldn’t be more volatile in price than the commodities traded through it. Bitcoin cannot price commodities. In that respect, Bitcoin is (at least for now) a’failure’. Because of this, they continue to sell bitcoins. The claim that bitcoin will be used as a hedging tool for central bank policy risks will eventually end as a false statement.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price

Bitcoin’s daily market price (see Figure 7), which fell and rebounded the day before, hit an all-time high, but with the opening in the afternoon ahead of breaking the $50,000 resistance line, it broke the high price the previous day and pushed back again. Technically, the daily highs have been exceeded, and the beekeeping is formed with higher prices and lower prices than the previous day, so the market price is expected to maintain the upward trend if it does not significantly damage the current state.

<Figure 6=BTC/USDT (Binance) Daily Price (Based on 14:00 on the 16th)/Chart=Trading View>

The reason for the drop in intraday flow is that today is the settlement date of February 16th for Bitcoin and Ethereum options on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the settlement was expected to be around $48,300 on the day, which is lower than the current price. However, since the selling of put options remains stable below the expected settlement price, even if the bitcoin price falls, it is expected that a buying tax will inflow from $48,000. After confirming this, it is recommended to respond with split buying.

<Figure 7=Deribit (DRBT) BTC Option Simulation Results of Expected Water Payment Price on February 16 (at 14:00)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

The price of Binance BTC/USDT, which was calculated by the institute’s quant program, is $47,476 (pink line). The current market price is trying to recover from the previous day’s high price. Therefore, if the price rises without being pushed back while recovering the previous day’s high price, you should buy it immediately to confirm the breakthrough of the same day’s high price. However, if it does not exceed the high price of the previous day, it is necessary to withhold the purchase and check the market price and support points. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis

As of 14 o’clock on the 16th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, all showed’active buy’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 6 of the oscillator indicators were’buy’, 0’sold’, and 0’neutral’ opinions, and’active buy’ opinions came out, and the moving average indicator was 12’buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.

<Figure 8=Upbit: BTC/KRW (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 9,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 0, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with zero.

<Figure 9=Binance: BTC/USDT (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

The’Fear and Greed Index’ provided by the cryptocurrency data provider Alternative.me is 95 points, up 2 points from the previous day, as the previous day’s’extreme greed’ level, indicating that investors’ sentiment was extremely overheated. . The index closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism.

<Figure 10=Crypto Fear and Greed Index/Data=Alternative.Me>

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of February 16, 14:00) <Strengthening>

Bitcoin price is showing a breathtaking pattern ahead of the 50,000 dollar breakthrough, but the surge continues. The US CME Bitcoin futures return to the beginning of the year was far higher among the valuation asset classes at 52.27%, up 10.42% from last Thursday. Oil futures, which have been strong since the beginning of the year, also rose 2.87% to 24.88%. Over the same period, increased preference for risky assets led to a drop of 0.57% in the dollar, a 0.52% increase in returns on the S&P 500, and a 0.57% decrease in gold returns. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of Dubai oil in the European market was confirmed, which is attributed to the anticipation of the recovery of the corona and the cold wave in the US and Europe, and this trend is expected to continue for the time being.

<Table 2=Status of increase/decrease in return by asset category/Data=Chicago Commercial Exchange, USA>
<Figure 11=Year-to-Year Return by Asset Category/Data=Trading View>

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of February 16, 14:00) <Strengthening>

Bitcoin is about to break through the $50,000 resistance line, but since last Thursday, the rate of increase has been high, and individual cryptocurrencies have also increased a lot. In particular, the progress of Cardano (ADA) and Binance Coin (BNB) is remarkable. Cardano recently announced the launch of a new update Goguen, which replaced the previous Shelley protocol, and the development team IOHK ranked fourth in market cap for substantial improvement efforts that continue to drive wider adoption, including Africa. Coin also ranks 6th in market cap. On the other hand, DOGE, which was in fourth place last week, plunged to 12th place. As of 14:00 on the 15th, Cardano (ADA) ranked first with 407.52%, Polkadot (DOT) ranked second with 248.95%, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked third with 248.88%, and Chainlink (LINK) ranked 176.92%. And Ethereum (ETH) ranked 5th with 146.77%.

<Figure 12=Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies in market cap compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of Bitcoin transaction volume on the day <Neutral>

Analyzing the transaction volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Index 1 in Figure 11 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini). Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.

<Figure 13=Comparison of total BTC spot trading volume and total BTC derivatives trading volume on major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

An ambiguity emerged in the on-chain transaction volume indicator. In indicator 1 of Figure 14, the price of bitcoin rises, but the total amount of bitcoin’s spot trading volume on major exchanges decreased, and the number of derivatives trading volume index 2 remained on a normal decline.

Looking at the indicator in Figure 15, it can be seen that the price volatility of the previous day’s rising price reached the highest level in recent years, and then the downward volatility continues to increase. This is because the price is rising during the intraday, but the market price is going to decline as time goes by. Means you can. Looking at the sum of buys and sells, it can be seen that the inflow is almost the same. Therefore, bitcoin price is currently rising, but if it fails to maintain the rising flow, it may close down, so it should be noted.

<Figure 14=Comparison of total daily BTC purchases and total sales of major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remain strong, but the kimchi premium index has rebounded to near ‘0’, a level to be wary of. However, since the indicator has not yet risen above ‘0’, it is advisable to maintain the buy point of view.

<Figure 15=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>
<Figure 16=Comparison of Ethereum Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trends/Data=Cryptoquant>

<Neutral> On the other hand, Coinbase Premium Index (Coinbase Pro (USD)) minus Binance Price (USDT) provided by CryptoQuant. The higher the premium, the stronger Coinbase’s spot buying pressure. ), it can be seen that the index rebounded after recording the lowest value when the highest price was recorded the previous day. At present, it is analyzed that the close battle between the whales (the forces of buying bitcoin from the coin base vs. the forces trying to sell through the inflow of stablecoins) over the $50,000 breakthrough of bitcoin are fierce. The fact that the index has a negative value means that a significant amount of stablecoins has accumulated in the exchange, and it is expected that the accumulated stablecoins will have to decrease in order for Bitcoin to increase further.

<Figure 17=Bitcoin Price and Coinbase Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>

◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <neutral>

Looking at the result of analyzing the share of all outstanding contracts of major bitcoin option exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 18), the increase rate based on the number of contracts from -17.13% to 57.41 as of 10 am to 14 pm %, but it was analyzed that the price of bitcoin would slightly decline as it decreased from 69.10% to 41.72% on a premium basis.

<Figure 18=Analysis data/data on non-payment agreements for Bitcoin options issued by Deribit as of 10:00 (upper) and 14:00 (lower) on the 16th = Aimrich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

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