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◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>
Bitcoin price rebounded dramatically, recovering the $59,000 mark, as the Fed’s decision to maintain zero interest rates until 2023 and Morgan Stanley’s first big bank to allow asset management clients to invest in bitcoin funds. did. In particular, according to a report by the US economic media CNBC on the 17th (local time), Morgan Stanley is known to be planning to launch three funds that allow Bitcoin to be owned, and this is an important opportunity for Bitcoin to be recognized as an asset. The outlook is predominant.
Last night, the U.S. New York Stock Market rose all at once, with the Dow index surpassing the 33,000 mark for the first time ever after a regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve System (Fed) and the news of maintaining zero interest rates until 2023. On the 17th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average rose 0.58% from the battlefield, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index rose 0.29%, and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq Index rose 0.40%.
As of 14:00 on the 18th, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is 58,810.93 dollars, the 24-hour trading volume is about 60 billion dollars, and the market cap is about 1.982 trillion dollars. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.85 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 60.8%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 11.6%.
The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 0.04% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased by 0.34% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin weaker than Altcoin, and Bitcoin’s market cap decreased 0.27% compared to the previous day. The market share of Bitcoin decreased by 0.23% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that the decline rate of bitcoin was greater than the average decline rate of altcoins in the market as a whole.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which started downward, rose once in the morning, but turned weak again around 12 o’clock, and it was analyzed that the sell-off of bitcoin and large altcoin stocks was somewhat strong. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -0.39%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.18%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, is -0.47%, and a medium-sized stock-oriented index WMC recorded -0.01%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +0.10%.
As of 14 o’clock on the 18th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume for the past 24 hours was 52%:48%, and the sell ratio was high, and as of 14 o’clock, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to be generally similar. (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures is around +68.0, and the basis of Ethereum futures is around +1.95. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. March futures traded at $58,937.5, an increase of $957.5 (+1.65%) compared to the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>
As of 14:00 on the 18th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price fell 0.41% from the previous day to 6,8213,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) fell 0.28% to 2118,000 won, and Polkadot (DOT) fell 0.07% to 42,050 won. Recorded. Ada (ADA) rose 2.19% from the previous day to 1,635 won, Ripple (XRP) rose 0.73% from the previous day to 551 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell 0.87% to 624,000 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) fell 0.21%. 468 won, Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 34,950 won, down 3.27% from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 239,800 won, up 0.02%.
At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is on the rise, 9 out of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $58,810.93, up 6.01% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 3.00% to $1,825.35, while Cardano (ADA) rose 16.62% to $1.42. Binance Coin (BNB) rose 8.39% from the previous day to $274.71, Polkadot (DOT) rose 1.13% to $36.37, Ripple (XRP) rose 1.75% to $0.4791, Uniswap (UNI) fell 0.02% to $31.09. Litecoin (LTC) rose 5.05% to $207.60, and Chainlink (LINK) rose 8.78% to $30.06.
◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <Strengthening>
As the price of bitcoin rebounded and a positive current was formed in the market, the voice of a well-founded uptrend with various good news is rising. Among them, Pantera Capital’s CEO Dan Morehead made a specific forecast that the price of bitcoin will exceed $115,000 in August, and his forecasting report is based on the’stock-to-flow model’. The stock-to-flow model is one of the leading indices that have tracked bitcoin prices fairly accurately over the years. It measures the scarcity of Bitcoin and is managed by basic network programming coded in the blockchain design.
① Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, a blockchain hedge fund, said on the 17th that through the’Pantera Blockchain Letter’, the bitcoin price in August 2021 will exceed $115,000 (KRW 130 million).” “In the next 12 months, bitcoin prices will be able to enter a new phase,” he said. “My guess is that institutional investors take 2-3 months to sort out the current portfolio problem,” he said. “It will take three to six months to research the current situation and new opportunities like cryptocurrency, and then the price of cryptocurrency will rise as they start allocating assets.”
② Shadi, an analyst at the research center of Wisebitcoin, a global cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, said, “The BTCUSDT indefinite futures price has confirmed a strong barrier at USD 52,492.56 based on the daily chart. As long as it is above the support line, the upward view prevails. The target price is $59,000, but if the $52,492.56 support line is broken, it could drop to $50,000.”
③ CoinDesk, a media specialized in cryptocurrency, cited data from Arcane Research, a specialized blockchain research firm, and said that although the supply of bitcoin by short-term investors has declined in the last 10 months, long-term investors continue to increase. According to the data, the supply of bitcoin with the last transaction in the last 3-5 years has increased by 1.5 million BTC since May 2020. This suggests that long-term investors are still buying bitcoins rather than selling them. The media evaluated that “the active investment of long-term holders is supporting the rise in bitcoin price.”
④ Cointelegraph, a media specializing in cryptocurrency, said, “According to a recent survey, it is estimated that up to 10% of the $40 billion pandemic relief funds to U.S. citizens can be used to buy bitcoin and stocks. The fact that the open interest is reaching an all-time high of $22.5 billion shows optimistic prospects that the current uptrend will continue.”
⑤ Jeff Ross, CEO of Vailshire Capital, predicted that “as long as the bitcoin price remains above $52,000, the long-term bull market towards $100,000 will continue.”
⑥ Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein said, “We don’t see a 10% drop in bitcoin price as a’adjustment’. We call it a buy opportunity.”
① Cryptocurrency media newsBTC analyst Aayush Jindal said, “After the BTC/USD pair price fell to the 53,000 dollar level, it started a new rise. The chart shows an upside conversion type’reverse head and shoulders’ that appears before the rebound,” said Aayush Jindal. It is highly likely to exceed the $58,000 level accordingly. However, failure to resolve the resistance levels of $57,000 and $58,000 could threaten the $50,000 support line,” he predicted.
① Bank of America analyst Francisco Blanch said that after analyzing the bitcoin buying trend, it seems that it has not been able to prove that bitcoin performs an inflation hedge function. “From a broader perspective, we’ve found that bitcoin isn’t as particularly interesting as a commodity as a hedge against inflation,” he wrote. “Even stocks provide more correlation with inflation.”
② Professor Asworth Damodaran of New York University recently pointed out in an interview with CNBC that “Bitcoin is a cyber currency designed by paranoid patients for paranoid patients and is not a currency that can be widely used as a currency.” “Bitcoin, whether it is a currency or a collectible, has no value. But it can be priced. The question is whether the fair price of Bitcoin is 50,000 or 60,000 dollars. From my point of view, Bitcoin is usability. “I don’t think this is a fair price because it’s not a good currency.”
◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>
Bitcoin’s daily market price (see Figure 6), which fell for two days from the peak, rose for two consecutive days, recovering to some extent. Even when it was pushed back from the high, it felt a bit unreasonable because the rapid decline for two to three consecutive days unfolded for unclear reasons, but the point of rebound was not natural, and confusing market movements are expected to continue for the time being.
However, what is important is that the trend of Bitcoin continues to rise to the right. No matter how strong the selling pressure is, there is no need to fear much even if the correction period comes, as the strong bull market is at the moment when the buying trend will eventually bring it back. Of course, this applies to mid- to long-term investors, and if you buy or sell low-priced stocks in the very short term, you are exposed to risks in any section, so please be careful.
The reason the bitcoin price remains strong on the day is presumed to be due to the strength of CME Bitcoin futures in the U.S. and the corresponding settlement price of bitcoin options on the same day. However, Figure 6 shows the so-called’doji’ and the market price rising and falling, unlike the strength of the US CME Bitcoin futures, suggesting that the selling pressure is considerable. Therefore, it is expected to decline again after 5 pm, when the bitcoin option payment is completed.
According to the analysis of the current trading volume on page 12, the current trading volume of Ethereum is significantly insufficient compared to the January rising period, so it is recommended that you try to buy Ethereum after confirming the increase in trading volume. Also, please refer to page 13 for the contents of altcoin assets that Grayscale added as an asset under management the previous day.
Meanwhile, today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was predicted to be around US$59,000 and US$1,820, respectively, as of 14 o’clock. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15)
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has a significant price change on the day of $57,337. Bitcoin’s current market price is between the market price of the day and this price, so the opportunity to buy the same day is safe to try when the market price 1) breaks strongly and is not pushed back 2) declines to $57,337 and supports it and rebounds. I think it will do. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>
As of 14 o’clock on the 18th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’active buying’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, Upbit came out with 8’buy’, 0’sell’ and 1’neutral’ opinions, and’active buy’ opinions among the oscillator indicators, and the moving average indicator was 12’buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.
If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 8,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 1, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with zero.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ recorded 72, an increase of 1 point from the previous day (71). Although the two-heartedness improved slightly, it maintained the current level of greed. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as
◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of March 18, 14:00) <Strengthening>
The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, which recently made the stock market unstable, showed real signs of the Fed’s announcement of zero interest rates on the previous day. The 10-year Treasury bond interest rate, which once soared to 1.689%, the highest level since the end of January last year, fell to 1.64% after the FOMC was completed and stabilized. As of 14:00 on the 18th, the bitcoin price, which had plunged as interest rates fell, rose sharply. As of 14:00 on the 18th, the yield of CME Bitcoin futures in the US rose 3.01% to 83.36% from the beginning of the year. As interest rates stabilized, the dollar index and gold prices fell, and the S&P 500 and oil futures rose. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Tuesday is as follows.
◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of March 18, 14:00) <Strengthening>
As the bitcoin price rebounded sharply, the prices of major cryptocurrencies also increased significantly. In particular, the price of Cardano (ADA) surged after the announcement of a plan to start offering Cardano trading services to professional investors on the 18th at Coinbase Pro, a major U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. Cardano has been strong recently with the official release of Mary’s hard fork for the conversion of the blockchain protocol through the mainnet on March 1.
As of 14 o’clock on the 18th, Cardano (ADA) ranks first with 673.18%, 2nd with Binance Coin (BNB) with 631.64%, and Uniswap (UNI) with 542.04%, 3rd place, and Polkadot (DOT) ranked 4th with 294.59%, and Chainlink ranked 5th with 169.15%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Neutral>
Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 13 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, Poloni-X, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
In Figure 13, it can be seen that both BTC and ETH have increased their trading volume, but Ethereum’s trading volume is much smaller than that of Bitcoin. Compared to the time when Ethereum reached an all-time high in January, it can be seen that it has dropped sharply at a glance, but with this level of trading volume, it is not possible to break through the previous high. Not only that, but as this condition is maintained, the selling pressure increases, so it is highly likely that the market price will go down. In other words, the purchase of Ethereum is premature.
On the other hand, bitcoin is still on the rise, but looking at the Figure 13-2 indicator of the adjustment, it was found that the selling quantity is increasing gradually and the downward price volatility increases, increasing the selling pressure. Even if bitcoin declines in recent years, the price recovery is fast and the adjustment is not deep, so it is likely that mid- to long-term investors will have an advantage to hold it as it is.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>
As the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are plummeting, the kimchi premium index is slowly rising. There seems to be no need to worry much because the gap between them is still sufficient, and we do not believe that the situation will simply turn into a downtrend. If Bitcoin and Ethereum fall, we expect to get good results if we respond to the purchase of the lowest point for each stock.
③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators <strong>
Figure 16-1 shows the trend of Ethereum balances held by major exchanges. Since September 2020, the balance of Ethereum held by each exchange has reached the lowest level. This is due to the fact that there are more Ethereum withdrawn outside the exchange for long-term investment than those who want to sell on the exchange. Therefore, the market price of Ethereum is expected to surge sooner or later.
Meanwhile, according to Cryptoquant’s data, the balance of the exchanges of Chain Link (LINK, Figure 16-2) and Sushi (SUSHI, Figure 16-3), which are classified as DeFi stocks, is also at the lowest level, like Ethereum. Among them, Chainlink is an altcoin asset (ChainLink, Filecoin (FIL), Livepier) added by Grayscale, the world’s largest cryptocurrency asset management company, on the 17th (local time). It is one of (LPT), Basic Attention Token (BAT), and Decentraland (MANA), so you need to watch it with interest. (Refer to the full press release)
◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Strengthening>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 18), the rising position that was 38.77% at 10 o’clock on the basis of the number of contracts was 14. In the city, it decreased to 16.19%. In addition, in terms of premium, the strike price ranges from -4.73% (sell call option): -56.74% (sell put option) to 1.40% (buy call option): -35.81% (sell put option) at 10 o’clock, around $56,000 in strike price. As a result, it was analyzed that it was a process of redeeming the sold positions that had been largely established. Therefore, it is expected that an upward flow will be observed in the afternoon hours.
In the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of pending contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 19), the down position, which was 7.31% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts, was 31% at 14 o’clock. On a premium basis, this is from -5.71% (sell call option):-1.70% (sell put option) to 2.00% (buy call option):-22.17% (sell put option) on a premium basis. It seems to have been reflected. Therefore, the Bitcoin price is expected to maintain an upward trend until the expiration time of the day. For reference, the expected payment price for Bitcoin and Ethereum options on the day is estimated at $59,000 and $1,820, respectively, as of 14:00.