[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Tomorrow Bitcoin Option Expiration… Please note that there are many outstanding items


Aim Rich Cryptocurrency Investment Information (2021.2.25)
<Figure 1=Market trend score as of 14:00 on the 25th (100 points, left)/Market rise/fall intensity (right)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>

The cryptocurrency market, which had been stabilizing at the $50,000 range, is again experiencing increased volatility ahead of the expiration date of the Bitcoin option at the end of the month. Delibit (DRBT), due on the 26th, is expected to liquidate about 58.8K BTC, the second largest volume this year following the liquidation of 75.6K BTC on the end of the quarter, which is scheduled for the end of March. Bitcoin (BTC), the number one cryptocurrency market capitalization, which started strong, has gradually declined after 10:30 a.m. as sales have surged, and are currently trading at around $50,000, and altcoins, which are not strong in the buying trend, have mostly turned down. State.

Last night, the US New York stock market ended higher with expectations of stimulus packages, Powell’s remarks to allow inflation, and the House of Representatives’ policy to deal with economic stimulus on the 26th, despite the weakness in Asia caused by China’s deleveraging issue. On the 24th (local time), the Dow index rose 1.35%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.14%, and the Nasdaq index rose 0.99%.

As of 14:00 on the 25th, the Bitcoin market cap base bitcoin price is $31,745.60, the 24-hour trading volume is about $59.3 billion, and the market cap is about $924.8 billion. The total cryptocurrency market cap is $1.505.9 billion, and the market cap share of Bitcoin is 61.7%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 0.23% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 0.84% ​​compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin stronger than Altcoin, and the market cap of Bitcoin increased 0.88% compared to the previous day. The market share increased by 0.65% compared to the previous day, which means that the number of altcoins declined compared to Bitcoin as a whole.

<Figure 2=Status of Real-Time Cryptocurrency Market/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that rose strongly after the opening formed a peak at around 10:30 and declined, and turned downward after 12:30. Selling on mid-sized stocks was strengthening overall. Was analyzed to be relatively strong. W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -0.65%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -1.21%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, -0.46%, and WMC, a medium-sized stock-oriented index. WSC, an index centered on -0.79% small stocks, recorded -0.26%.

<Figure 3=Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the past 24 hours/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>
<Table 1 = Longs/Shorts trading volume ratio of major exchanges as of 14:00 on the 25th/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

As of 14 o’clock on the 25th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours was 52%:48%, which showed a high sell ratio, and as of 14 o’clock, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to be strong on average. . (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, the basis of bitcoin futures on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX was around -40.0, and the basis of backwardation and Ethereum futures was maintained at around 2.45. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. March futures traded at $50,450.0, up $1315.0 (+2.68%) from the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 25th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price rose 1.13% from the previous day to 5,7128,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) fell 0.84% ​​to 1.38 million won, and Polkadot (DOT) fell 1.08% to 39,300 won. Recorded. Ripple (XRP) rose 0.19% from the previous day to 534 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 0.07% to 599,000 won, Ada (ADA) fell 1.26% to 1,180 won, Stella Lumen (XLM) rose 0.43% to 464 won. , Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 30,670 won, down 4.13% from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 205,000 won, down 0.46%.

<Figure 4=Upbit BTC/KRW Daily Chart/Data=Trading View>
<Figure 5=Top 10 Coin Price (As of February 25, 14:00)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is falling 9 out of the top 10 market caps as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $49,698.41, down 2.50% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) fell 2.51% to $1,599.25, while Binance Coin (BNB) fell 0.90% to $246.36. Cardano (ADA) rose 1.83% to $1.83, Polkadot (DOT) fell 7.91% to $33.08, Ripple (XRP) fell 5.76% to $0.4697, Litecoin (LTC) fell 3.04% to $178.87, Chainlink LINK) fell 4.09% to $27.12, while Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell 3.81% to $526.30.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <strong>

Bitcoin’s volatility has been stagnating at the $50,000 level since its extreme expansion. It is still below the 10-hour and 50-hour moving average lines, so it can be seen that the downward momentum is continuing technically. However, it is positive that it deviated from the existing view of a sharp decline. In addition, many experts are in the mood to accept short-term price adjustments as necessary for further gains, and have shown no negative views. It is also worth referring to the view that we need to look at the OTC tether price in order to confirm the demand for bitcoin in China.

(Positive opinion)

① Tom Lee, founder and chief analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, a US investment research firm, said, “Trice adjustment is the history and DNA of assets like Bitcoin. Getting a 40-50% price adjustment is amazing. “It’s not a job,” he said. “This adjustment will not affect the fair value of Bitcoin. Bitcoin will go up to $100,000.” He advised, “At the current price point below the previous high (ATH) of $58,000, now is the ideal time to buy Bitcoin.”

② Blockstream CEO Adam Back said, “The part that investors should be aware of if they want to sell Bitcoin under 50,000 dollars is that Square’s additional purchase price of BTC is between 51,000 and 58,000 dollars.” I advised this.

③Cryptocurrency Media Cointelegraph quoted the analysis of CrossTower, a virtual asset trading platform for institutional investors, and predicted that “the buying trend of institutional investors will not let Bitcoin fall below 50,000 dollars.”

④ ARK Invest’s Chief Executive Officer Cash Wood said he was very positive about Bitcoin, despite its recent sharp price adjustment. In an interview with Bloomberg Asia TV, Wood said he is “very positive about Bitcoin.” He also pointed to the falling bitcoin price as a “healthy correction,” adding that there is no market that continues to rise in a straight line, and that everyone knows this.

⑤ Michael Sailor, CEO of NASDAQ-listed MicroStrategy (MSTR), still expressed his intention to advocate Bitcoin. In a recent interview, he predicted, “BTC is a means of saving rather than a means of consumption. By 2026, BTC will be chosen as a means of saving by about 1 billion people.”

⑥ An anonymous trader known as’Byzantine General’ commented that “current bitcoin is on a short-term decline,” and “this is a healthy trend.” If bitcoin fell due to certain phenomena such as the’Black Swan’ news, it could be considered a worrisome situation, but there is currently a relatively large buy order, so I predicted that there will be no further decline. He also warned, “It is important that BTC defends the $45,000 line and does not enter the’Bear Zone’. If it falls below that, it will undergo a deeper and longer-term adjustment.”

(Neutral opinion)

① Coinnis special analyst’JIn’s Crypto’ said, “Bitcoin rebounded after hitting the bottom of $44,918, but the number of newly introduced investors is not large. There are still several variables as there is a fluctuation of 17% based on the daily chart.” Was diagnosed. He said, “The number of active Bitcoin addresses on the 23rd did not increase significantly to 1.05 million. The number of new addresses increased only 20,000 from 510,000 on the 22nd to 530,000 on the 23rd. Even though BTC fell significantly during this period, investors who started trading It suggests that there were not that many. It was analyzed as “different from the previous courts.” He added, “If you look at the transaction volume, the largest transaction volume ever occurred after the short-term decline in BTC. This means that short-term hand changes frequently occurred, we can predict that the purchase price of new investors is concentrated around $50,000.”

② Analyst Aayush Jindal said, “If the BTC/USD pair fails to cross the bearish trend line ($51,200 line) and the $51,800 resistance, it will go down again, threatening the $48,000 and $45,000 support lines. If it collapses, it could plunge by an additional 8-10% and sink to the $40,000 support line.” However, he analyzed, “If the BTC/USD pair exceeds the strong resistance levels of $51,800 and $52,000, it is likely to rise to $55,000 in the short term.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

Bitcoin’s daily market price (see Figure 6), which started out strong, is falling behind the previous day without exceeding the high price. While the buying trend for bitcoin has been inflow from time to time and is controlling the rate of decline, altcoins are not, so most of the stocks are already weak.

Looking at the on-chain transaction volume indicator in Figure 14, it can be seen that the total number of sales is higher than the total number of purchases, and the transaction volume (refer to the indicator in Figure 13-1) has also decreased, indicating that the current selling trend is strong. However, if you look at Index 14-2, since the downside volatility index reached a peak for two days in a row, the market price on the day is highly likely to attempt a strong rebound from the low, and before heading to the previous high for the day, it is predicted that a severe selling market will emerge sooner or later. do. Therefore, mid- to long-term investors will need to maintain a buy perspective, while short-term investors will need to make one profit after purchasing the bottom, and wait for another opportunity to buy.

On the other hand, today is also the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the same-day payment price is expected to be about $49,300 and $1,570, respectively. This price is near the important price on the day and near the moving average on the 20th, so if support is confirmed near this price, it can be a good turnaround point, so it would be good to buy aggressively. For reference, the important price for the day of Binance ETHUSDT under the Quant program was calculated at $1,613.

<Figure 6=BTC/USDT (Binance) Daily Price (Based on 14:00 on the 25th)/Chart=Trading View>
<Figure 7=Deribit (DRBT) BTC Option Simulation Results of Expected Water Settlement Price on February 25 (at 14:00)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

The price of Binance BTC/USDT, which was calculated by the institute’s quant program, is $49,346 (pink line). The current market price is above $46,346 and the market price of the day, but it has not exceeded the high price of the previous day and has been pushed back, so the purchase should be withheld until market support, a breakthrough of the previous day’s high price, or similar significant market changes are observed. First, the buying conditions are: 1) market price support 2) high price breakthrough the previous day 3) USD 49,346, support for the 20th moving average. However, if you break the market price, you’ll have to wait until you see a rebound around at least $49,346. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14 o’clock on the 25th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were found to be’Buy’ and’Active Buy’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, Upbit came out with five’buy’ and one’sell’ and two’neutral’ opinions and’buy’ opinions among the oscillator indicators, and the moving average indicators were eight’buy’ and four. It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion as a suggestion’sell’.

<Figure 8=Upbit: BTC/KRW (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 6,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 2, signaling’active buy’, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 8, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with four.

<Figure 9=Binance: BTC/USDT (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

The’Fear and Greed Index’ provided by the cryptocurrency data provider Alternative.me was 79 points, up 3 points from the previous day, maintaining the’extreme greed level’ as the previous day. This indicates that investor sentiment is still extremely overheated. The index closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism.

<Figure 10=Crypto Fear and Greed Index/Data=Alternative.Me>

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of February 25, 14:00) <Weakness>

Bitcoin price has been heavily adjusted. As of 14 o’clock on the 25th, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year fell 15.67% from last Tuesday to 54.60%, but it still maintains the number one valuation asset class. Second place is oil futures, up 3.19%. Despite an increase of 1.29 million barrels of crude oil in the US weekly, oil prices soared 2.5% as concerns over supply and demand increased due to the shutdown of crude oil drilling facilities in Texas. There are also institutions that predict $100 by the end of the year. While US Treasury yields continued to rise, gold ended lower than the previous day.

<Table 2=Status of increase/decrease in return by asset category/Data=Chicago Commercial Exchange, USA>
<Figure 11=Year-to-Year Return by Asset Category/Data=Trading View>

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of February 25, 14:00) <weak>

As Bitcoin plummeted, most cryptocurrency prices faced a significant decline in returns. However, Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT), which are rapidly rising recently, rebounded immediately after a sharp decline, widening the gap in yield from other coins. Ripple (XRP), which plunged to $0.35 on the news of their propaganda and the SEC’s litigation, and the suspension of partnership with the global remittance company MoneyGram, rose sharply due to the influx of low-priced buying the previous day, but some broke through $0.55. There are also opinions that an additional buying trend will inflow due to the expectation of a dollar increase.

As of 14:00 on the 25th, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked first with 576.39%, Cardano (ADA) ranked second with 492.11%, Polkadot (DOT) ranked third with 315.11%, and Chainlink (LINK) ranked 137.11% And Ethereum (ETH) ranked 5th with 124.22%.

<Figure 12=Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies in market cap compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of Bitcoin transaction volume on the day <Neutral>

Analyzing the transaction volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Index 1 in Figure 13 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.

<Figure 13=Comparison of total BTC spot trading volume and total BTC derivatives trading volume on major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Bitcoin, which surpassed 50,000 dollars the previous day, is not being pushed back much, but is reducing the trading volume at the peak and digesting the sale. In indicator 1 of Figure 13, it can be seen that the spot transaction volume has decreased compared to the previous day, and in the derivatives transaction volume indicator 2, it can be seen that the trend is maintaining a normal decline. This is evidence that the uptrend has not changed.

<Figure 14=Comparison of total daily BTC purchases and total sales of major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

In addition, looking at the indicators in Figure 14, it can be seen that the total quantity sold is higher than the total quantity bought. Nevertheless, since the price has not been pushed much from the peak, it can be understood that Bitcoin is currently in the process of digesting the sale. However, if the price volatility of the previous day was in the upward direction, it is expected to turn downward today and sell intraday. Today is also the option expiration date, and the expected settlement price was calculated at around $51,300, below the current price of $52,169 at 14:00. Even if it is not this sharp drop, there may be one drop during the day, so it would be a good idea to use this as a buying opportunity.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <Neutral>

Although the kimchi premium index is still above ‘0’, the price of bitcoin and Ethereum has truly entered a phase, so from a mid- to long-term buying point of view, it is not a situation of concern. However, since the interval between each stock and the index is close and the index is more than ‘0’, it seems necessary to observe periodic crossover.

<Figure 15=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>
<Figure 16=Comparison of Ethereum Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trends/Data=Cryptoquant>

<Neutral> On the other hand, coinbase premium index (Coinbase Pro (USD)) minus Binance (USDT) price provided by CryptoQuant, an on-chain data analytics company. (Meaning that this is strong), it can be seen that the index rebounded after hitting the lowest level when the highest price of the previous day was recorded.

As the bitcoin price rebounds, the coinbase premium index is finding stability above ‘0’, and there is a movement to turn to a slight weakness during the intraday. It is difficult to say that the previous trend has been completely recovered, as the index trend must be maintained above ‘0’.

<Figure 17=Bitcoin Price and Coinbase Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>

Figure 18 shows the trend of bitcoin balances held by major exchanges. Just before the plunge, you can see that the balance has increased sharply, which appears to have been deposited to the exchange to dispose of bitcoins held in external wallets. The problem is that at this time, the increased quantity has not yet been used up, and it is possible to reasonably estimate that if this quantity is not digested, it is difficult for Bitcoin to rise. Therefore, it can be seen that the timing of the Bitcoin rise in the future depends on the inflow of the buying tax to receive the selling volume.

<Figure 18=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Balance Trends in Major Exchanges/Data=CryptoQuant>

◇Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from the bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 18), the percentage of rising positions is 6.76% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts. As of 14:00, it slightly increased to 29.68%, but the rising premium portion increased from 65.45% to 28.72% of the falling premium, and it was analyzed that the price of bitcoin will continue to weaken in the afternoon.

<Figure 18=Analysis of non-payment agreements for bitcoin options at major exchanges as of 10:00 (upper) and 14:00 (lower) on the 25th = Data/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>