[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] What is the next expected price for Bitcoin over 50,000 dollars?


Aim Rich Cryptocurrency Investment Information (2021.2.18)
<Figure 1=Market trend score as of 14:00 on the 18th (100 points, left)/Market rise/fall intensity (right)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

As soon as Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the $50,000 psychological resistance line, the rally continued to $52,000. Bitcoin (BTC), the number one cryptocurrency market capitalization in the past 24 hours, continues a strong trend, surpassing $51,700 for the first time in history, but is slightly pushed back by short-term sales. Bitcoin’s rise this day seems to have been influenced by the news that Micro Strategy plans to purchase an additional $900 million worth of bitcoin, which is more than originally known. As a result, the market capitalization has soared to more than $960 billion and is about to break through $1 trillion, and the optimism about the future outlook among most cryptocurrency experts is growing stronger.

As Bitcoin remains strong, most altcoins have risen over the past 24 hours. Among the top 10 stocks by market cap, Ethereum (ETH, 6.79%), Binance Coin (BNB, 28.58%), Litecoin (LTC, etc.) 9.19%) and Chainlink (LINK, 6.50%) ranked at the top of the growth rate.

Last night, the US New York Stock Exchange was mixed overall. The minutes of the FOMC meeting were released, and the Fed announced that it would postpone tapering until the point of full employment as there is not much concern about inflation. Treasury bond yields declined, but technology stocks were weak as the trend of long-term products remained unchanged. The Dow index rose 0.29% to a new high, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.03% and 0.58%, respectively. The previous day, gold prices declined due to the impact of long-term government bond interest rates increase, and oil prices continued to rise due to the news that supply and demand were even more limited.

As of 14 p.m. on the 18th, the price of bitcoin based on CoinMarket Cap is $31,745.60, the 24-hour trading volume is about $82.8 billion, and the market cap is about $9691 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $1.584 trillion, and the Bitcoin market cap share is 61.3%.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 0.03% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 0.87% compared to the previous day, which is stronger than altcoin than bitcoin, and the market cap of bitcoin decreased by 0.58% compared to the previous day. The market share declined by 0.54% compared to the previous day, which means that there are many altcoins that remain stronger than bitcoins as their prices decline throughout the market.

<Figure 2=Status of Real-Time Cryptocurrency Market/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which rose strongly after opening, peaked at around 12 o’clock and turned down around 1 o’clock, and the market was analyzed to sell bitcoins and buy small altcoins. W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -0.09%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.53%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, -0.19%, and WMC, a medium-sized stock-oriented index. +0.21% WSC, an index focused on small stocks, recorded +2.17%.

<Figure 3=Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the past 24 hours/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>
<Table 1=Percentage of Longs/Shorts Transaction Volumes of Major Exchanges as of 14:00 on the 18th/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

As of 14 o’clock on the 18th, the cumulative buying:selling ratio of the last 24 hours on the major cryptocurrency exchanges was 47%:53%, and the selling ratio was high, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio result of each exchange was analyzed to be strong overall. done. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around 86.0, and the basis of Contango and Ethereum futures was maintained at around 7.35. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. February futures traded at $52,467.5, up $317.5 (-0.60%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices

As of 14:00 on the 18th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price rose 0.57% compared to the previous day to KRW 578.2 million, Ethereum (ETH) rose 3.58% to 2113,000 KRW, and Polkadot (DOT) rose 0.37% to 35,320 KRW. Recorded. Ripple (XRP) rose 1.34% from the previous day to 603 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 1.16% to 796,000 won, Ada (ADA) rose 3.78% to 1,015 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) rose 2.20% to 556 won. , Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 36,7000 won, up 3.38% from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 258,000 won, down 1.38%.

<Figure 4=Upbit BTC/KRW Daily Chart/Data=Trading View>
<Figure 5=Top 10 Coin Price (As of February 18, 14:00)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on coin market cap is rising, 9 out of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of the past 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $51,853.09, up 4.66% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 10.81% to $1,884.38, while Polkadot (DOT) fell 0.46% to $31.51. Cardano (ADA) rose 6.91% to $0.9116, Binance Coin (BNB) rose 28.58% to $167.05, Ripple (XRP) rose 5.11% to $0.5447, Litecoin (LTC) rose 9.19% to $229.50, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) rose 2.66% to $714.70, and Chainlink (LINK) rose 6.50% to $32.88.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <strong>

Bitcoin price doubled in less than eight weeks after surpassing $25,000 at the end of December last year, and the upward trend continues, increasing optimism about the future outlook among most cryptocurrency experts. Some have also claimed that Bitcoin has entered a historical parabolic rise. In fact, it is difficult to find any negative factors as it is a bull market with very favorable investment sentiment across the market and a very strong buying trend in terms of supply and demand. The reason for JPMorgan analyst’s negative opinion is that it did not reflect the recent market trend, and the credibility seems somewhat poor.

(Positive opinion)

① Bitcoin-focused analyst’Plan B’said, “Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on a similar path to that of the previous cycle,” and predicted that Bitcoin’s rising rally will continue in the future.

②Skybridge Capital’s founder and former White House Communications Commissioner Anthony Skaramuchi said, “Over the next 12 months, the dollar supply will increase by 40% due to the decline in currency value.” “By February 2022, the bitcoin price could exceed $100,000. It was viewed as “.

③ Ronnie Moas, the founder of Standpoint Research, predicted that “the bitcoin market cap will exceed $2 trillion this year,” and “the price target for 2021 is $112,000.”

④Cryptocurrency asset management firm Morgan Creek Digital Asset co-founder Jason Williams said, “My bitcoin target price is $238,855. Google reached this target price by converting the distance between the Earth and the moon (in miles) into dollars. “I said.

⑤Arc Invest CEO Kathy Wood said, “It is a wise decision for Tesla, a representative company that destroys the traditional order, to hedging the risk of fiat reserve assets with Bitcoin.” “Companies that have been damaged by these disruptive innovations must invest their cash in new technologies to avoid another creative disruption,” he said.

⑥ Data analysis platform Cryptoquant saw a significant increase in the supply rate (SSR) as the stablecoin recovered from the mid-30,000 dollars. In addition, it was analyzed that the low sales pressure from miners also fueled this bitcoin rally. This trend explained that this rally is not a mere aftermath of the excess futures market, so optimistic observations dominate. “If you’re a long-term investor, now is the right time to buy bitcoin,” said Ju Ji-young, CEO of Crypto Quant. In this regard, he predicted, “I’m not sure how much the adjustment will be going forward, but the on-chain indicators are saying that there are enough stablecoins compared to the bitcoins deposited on the exchange, so it could rise again.”

⑦ MicroStrategy CEO Michael Sailor said, “Bitcoin will become the world’s first unified currency network. When everyone connects to the digital currency network, they will experience a similar experience to the Internet connection in the past. BTC is Google, Facebook It will be more than 100 times larger than the back,” he predicted. “When Amazon and Google were born, I thought that high-tech companies with the future emerged. These companies connected people around the world to the’Internet’, and our daily lives changed 180 degrees.”

⑧ Cryptocurrency trader Jacob Canfield predicted, “Once bitcoin exceeds 50,000 dollars, it will show a strong rally and reach $100,000 in 30-60 days.” He said more than $1 billion of stablecoins (value stabilization coins) are waiting to push the price of bitcoin to $100,000. Representative stablecoins include Tether, USD Coin, and Paxos, and are recognized as’stable’ because their value is linked (pegged) 1:1 with the US dollar. In general, as the supply of stablecoins increases, the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins rise.

(Negative opinion)

① JP Morgan analyst Nicholas Panijirzoglu said in the latest report, “Unless volatility declines, it will be difficult to maintain the recent rise in bitcoin prices.” “Bitcoin market cap has grown by about $700 billion in the last five months. This has been largely affected by limited supply and a surge in demand for some individual investors. There has also been an inflow of institutional investors, but the overall size is still not large. The impact of speculative funds is still large,” he said. “I explained.

② “Bitcoin is a failure,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, famous American essayist and economist and author of the best-selling Black Swan. “Basically, money shouldn’t be more volatile in price than the commodities traded through it. Bitcoin cannot price commodities. In that respect, Bitcoin is (at least for now) a’failure’. Because of this, they continue to sell bitcoins. The claim that bitcoin will be used as a hedging tool for central bank policy risks will eventually end as a false statement.”

◆Comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin market price <strong>

Even after the daily price of Bitcoin (see Figure 7) exceeded the unprecedented price record of $50,000, the price was maintained while digesting the sale without being pushed back from the peak. It is expected to test the $50,000 support, but it is expected that Bitcoin’s upward trend will continue as it has relatively easily crossed the $50,000 psychological resistance line and has no technical resistance. Accordingly, as of February 18, we will raise the bitcoin target price calculated by the institute’s quant program to $64,993.

On the other hand, looking at the on-chain indicator in Figure 14, it can be seen that the total quantity sold is higher than the total number of purchases. Nevertheless, since the price has not been pushed much from the peak, it can be understood that Bitcoin is currently in the process of digesting the sale. However, if the price volatility of the previous day was in the upward direction, it is expected to turn downward today and sell intraday.

Also, today is the expiration date for Bitcoin options on the Deribit (DRBT) exchange. As a result of the simulation as of 14:00, the payment price on the day was expected to be around $51,300. Even if it is not a plunge to this point, it would be a good idea to use this period as a buying opportunity, as there may be one drop during the intraday change in the current option open position position (see the analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day on page 15).

<Figure 6=BTC/USDT (Binance) Daily Price (Based on 14:00 on the 18th)/Chart=Trading View>
<Figure 7=Deribit (DRBT) BTC Option Simulation Results of Expected Water Settlement Price on February 18 (at 14:00)/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

The price of Binance BTC/USDT, which was calculated by the institute’s quant program, is $51,341 (pink line). The current market price is above $51,341 and the market price of the day, but it is close to the market price, so you should carefully observe whether the market price deviates. If you support the market price and rise, you can 1) buy 2) buy if the high price breaks the previous day. However, if the market breaks, you have to wait and see until you see a rebound around $51,341. Of course, as it is a special condition of’super bullish market’ now, the buying trend is strong and there is a tendency that it is not pushed well. Therefore, it is also necessary to take the above price as an important reference price and to take appropriate buying opportunities according to market conditions. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14 o’clock on the 18th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, all showed’active buying’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, Upbit came out with 7’buy’, 0’sell’ and 0’neutral’ opinions, and’active buy’ opinions among the oscillator indicators, and the moving average indicator was 12’buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.

<Figure 8=Upbit: BTC/KRW (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 6,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 0, sending a’active buy’ signal.The moving average indicator is’Buy’ with 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with zero.

<Figure 9=Binance: BTC/USDT (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

The’Fear and Greed Index’ provided by the cryptocurrency data provider Alternative.me was 91 points, down 4 points from the previous day, which was the same’extreme greed stage’ as the previous day. This indicates that investor sentiment is still extremely overheated. The index closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism.

<Figure 10=Crypto Fear and Greed Index/Data=Alternative.Me>

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of February 18, 14:00) <Strengthening>

Bitcoin price is rising without hesitation. As of 14:00 on the 18th, the US CME Bitcoin futures return from the beginning of the year was 67.31%, a 15.04% increase from last Tuesday, ranking first in the valuation asset class, and oil futures, up 3.51%, ranking second.

Meanwhile, the previous day’s gold price declined due to the increase in long-term government bond yields, and oil prices continued to rise due to the news that supply and demand were even more limited. During the same period, the dollar rose 1.20%, and the S&P 500 and gold yields fell 0.10% and 2.59%, respectively.

<Table 2=Status of increase/decrease in return by asset category/Data=Chicago Commercial Exchange, USA>
<Figure 11=Year-to-Year Return by Asset Category/Data=Trading View>

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of February 18, 14:00) <Strengthening>

As Bitcoin crosses the $50,000 resistance line, the rising price of individual cryptocurrencies is also rising. In particular, Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Binance Coin (BNB) are currently following Ethereum with market values ​​of $26 billion and $25 billion, respectively. Cardano and Polkadot have grown rapidly as the adoption rate of smart contract platforms is much lower than that of Ethereum, but their functions have been in the spotlight as next-generation projects that can replace Ethereum, and Binance Coin’s strong uptrend is due to the growth of the Binance ecosystem and supply. It is analyzed that the deflation mechanism, which burns a certain amount of tokens for adjustment, has been affected.

As of 14:00 on the 18th, Cardano (ADA) ranked first with 419.02%, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked second with 345.40%, Polkadot (DOT) ranked third with 284.82%, and Chainlink (LINK) ranked 178.19% And Ethereum (ETH) ranked 5th with 160.08%.

<Figure 12=Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies in market cap compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of Bitcoin transaction volume on the day <Neutral>

Analyzing the transaction volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Index 1 in Figure 13 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.

<Figure 13=Comparison of total BTC spot trading volume and total BTC derivatives trading volume on major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Bitcoin, which surpassed 50,000 dollars the previous day, is not being pushed back much, but is reducing the trading volume at the peak and digesting the sale. In indicator 1 of Figure 13, it can be seen that the spot transaction volume has decreased compared to the previous day, and in the derivatives transaction volume indicator 2, it can be seen that the trend is maintaining a normal decline. This is evidence that the uptrend has not changed.

<Figure 14=Comparison of total daily BTC purchases and total sales of major exchanges/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

In addition, looking at the indicators in Figure 14, it can be seen that the total quantity sold is higher than the total quantity bought. Nevertheless, since the price has not been pushed much from the peak, it can be understood that Bitcoin is currently in the process of digesting the sale. However, if the price volatility of the previous day was in an upward direction, it is expected to be sold in a downward direction today and intraday selling. Today is also the option expiration date, and the expected settlement price was calculated at around $51,300, below the current price of $52,169 at 14:00. Even if it is not this sharp drop, there may be one drop during the day, so it would be a good idea to use this as a buying opportunity.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

As the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise, the rising kimchi premium index fell below ‘0’ again. However, it has not been significantly lowered to the previous level, so it seems that it should be watched with some interest. In addition, since the indicator has not yet risen above ‘0’, it would be wise to keep the buy point and wait for the opportunity to buy the bottom.

<Figure 15=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=Cryptoquant>
<Figure 16=Comparison of Ethereum Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trends/Data=CryptoQuant>

<Strengthening> On the other hand, Coinbase Premium Index (Coinbase Pro (USD)) minus Binance Price (USDT) provided by CryptoQuant. The higher the premium, the stronger the coinbase’s spot buying pressure. ), it can be seen that the index rebounded after recording the lowest level when the highest price was recorded the previous day.

After a fierce battle between the buying and selling forces, the buying force raised the bitcoin price above $50,000, and the Coinbase premium index recovered to the ‘0’ value, and as long as the indicator maintains an uptrend, the buy for bitcoin It is a judgment that it would be better to keep the point of view.

<Figure 17=Bitcoin Price and Coinbase Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=CryptoQuant>

◇Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day

Looking at the analysis result (see Figure 18) of the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from the bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com), the increase rate was at 10:53.49% based on the number of contracts. As of 14:00, it has decreased to 40.66%, and on a premium basis, it has decreased from 74.57% to 43.43%, and it is analyzed that the price of bitcoin will continue to weaken as time passes on the afternoon of the day.

<Figure 18=Analysis of non-payment agreements for Bitcoin options issued by Deribit as of 10:00 (upper) and 14:00 (lower) on the 18th = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>