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Although Bitcoin has continued to rise sharply in the past week, the exchange giant whales and miners have not reacted fiercely. The “calm” performance of the market has become the best help for Bitcoin’s continued strength.
Written by: CryptoQuant
As traditional financial institutions have begun to actively participate in cryptocurrency transactions, Bitcoin has continued to rise in the past week. On the 14th of this month, a gain of US$3,200 was achieved in one day. Yesterday’s high point was once reached US$19,400. The weekly increase was as high as 20%. In addition, there has been no signal of whale or miner selling in the market so far. It seems that Bitcoin still has more room to rise.
From the perspective of market supply and demand, judging the movements of miners is considered to be particularly critical on-chain data in the early stages of the bull market. Since the advent of Bitcoin, most of the selling behavior of miners has led to a sharp drop in prices. Usually, after the bull market starts, miners will gradually increase their strength in selling coins, and when the price peaks and starts to fall behind, the amount sold will again decreasing gradually.
In order to better confirm the movement of miners in the market, CryptoQuant has drawn the “Miners’ Position Index” (Miners’ Position Index, MPI), which counts the total amount of Bitcoin transferred from the world’s major miners’ wallets to other people’s wallets. By observing the average value of this indicator in the last 30 days, it can be found that the miners have not shown obvious signs of concentrated selling recently, and the transfer volume has basically remained above the medium and long-term average level.
The latest miner location indicator and Bitcoin price chart
Similarly, the recent on-chain transfers of giant whales are relatively rare, so it can be expected that prices will not fall sharply in the short term.
Percentage of giant whale activity on exchanges (using 90-day moving average)
According to different observation standards, the proportion of giant whales in transactions can be viewed from various angles. For example, observing the real-time proportion requires a shorter time dimension. By observing the 72-hour moving average in the figure below, it can be seen that if the indicator remains Below 85%, it indicates that the price will remain stable.
Share of giant whale activity on exchanges (using 72-hour moving average)
As shown in the figure, once the indicator breaks through 85%, the Bitcoin price will likely fall sharply soon. The indicator exceeded 85% a week ago, but recently dropped to about 79%, (back to relative “safety” Area).
In addition to CryptoQuant, many analysts have also thrown out continued bullish analysis of Bitcoin. Cole Garner, a well-known American cryptocurrency analyst, quoted CryptoQuant data on the 21st and pointed out that the balance of Bitcoin in exchanges is gradually decreasing, and the decline in Bitcoin’s liquidity has pushed up its price.
In addition, the balance of stablecoins in the exchange can also be used as a basis for judging whether Bitcoin still has a buying value. The ratio of this value to the total amount of Bitcoin holdings in the exchange can be used to measure the selling pressure of Bitcoin in the market. The figure below shows the historical performance of the indicators calculated and drawn by CryptoQuant.
Exchange Bitcoin/stable currency holdings ratio
This indicator is obtained by dividing the total amount of bitcoins in the exchange by the total amount of stablecoins. Simply put, the higher the proportion of stablecoins in the exchange, the lower the value of this indicator. Lower means that the selling pressure in the market is relatively weak, which can be regarded as a very effective buy signal. On the contrary, if the indicator rises rapidly, it is considered that the possibility of Bitcoin being sold has increased. Therefore, this indicator can be regarded as an effective Operation signal.
In the past few months, the total number of stablecoins deposited on exchanges has increased significantly, which has caused potential selling pressure to remain at a relatively low level since September, although the current selling pressure is slightly There has been an increase, but because the previously mentioned giant whales continue to account for a low proportion of the market, the probability of a sharp decline is not high. Therefore, according to CryptoQuant’s judgment, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will achieve a breakthrough from the historical high this year and reach the 20,000 USD mark.