In Amber, regardless of whether it is long or short, those who have coins but those who do not, those who mine the land, those who open the door to do business, or those who make a fortune, almost everyone agrees that Bitcoin will be very valuable in the long run. (A few may think that Ethereum will be more valuable, anyway)
As long as investors in this industry, or the entire related field, almost all maintain recognition of the long-term value of Bitcoin, even the most determined Air Force has no confidence when chanting the slogan of “empty to zero”. Because he knew that he was going to take profit when he shorted a few thousand long, and Bitcoin could not return to zero.
The probability of a short seller returning to zero is infinitely many times greater than the probability of Bitcoin returning to zero.
In fact, people shouldn’t overestimate their efforts in the face of trends. For example, in the past ten years, five years, three years, and even this year, most people can’t win and take Bitcoin directly.
Taking Bitcoin seems to be Amber’s long-term creed, at least verbally. Everyone says that, but few people do it.
Few people have Bitcoin, and those with more than 50% positions are even rarer.
Just like an individual, people who don’t need to understand the stock market know that buying Moutai will definitely make money, but there are also very few people who buy Maotai stocks. In every market, similar things happen.
In the financial market, people always play short-term games under the banner of long-term.
In fact, behind this phenomenon is to enlarge the uncertainty entrained in the long-term determined trend in my mind, but it reduces the risk estimate of short-term uncertainty.
Probably it is: 10% income is determined after one year and 100% income may be given after two hours. Many people will choose the latter, even if they don’t know how likely it is.
Lengthening of time does magnify uncertainty. Time itself is a link in uncertainty, and many people have magnified the influence factor of time even more in their hearts.
People are unwilling to wait. The short-term creed runs through all retail investments, getting faster and shorter. The previous myth of wealth was 10% a day, but the current myth is ten times that of a night.
The long-term creed of Bitcoin has been tributed to everyone’s heart. When you need it, you can take it out and worship it. When you don’t need it, you won’t think of it at all.
After all, everyone will say this sentence:
“Bitcoin is too slow to make money”.
So what is the long-term creed of Bitcoin?
“What we see now is that our current domestic and international payment mechanisms are not efficient. It is these inefficiencies that have promoted the rise of Bitcoin.” —Jay Clayton, Chairman of the SEC (United States Securities Regulatory Commission).
It is the inefficiency of international payments, the high cost of cross-border payments, the need for new gold in the Internet age, and the fact that people trust technology more than humanity, etc.
In the same way, you can also apply to DeFi and Ethereum. Why are so many cryptocurrencies this year different from the “all air” ICO era? Because it used to be driven by humanity and fanaticism, now it is driven by technology and landing.
Do people really need DeFi? I asked my good friends this question when I was first spread at the end of last year, just like others often asked me: “Does this world really need Bitcoin?”
Obviously, needed.
The logic of DeFi is very clear. What if you don’t trust the exchange, but you have trading needs, borrowing needs, and financial needs? Obviously this is how a series of decentralized finance is derived.
Some people believe in exchanges, and naturally some people don’t. This is why DeFi has a market.
The same goes for your analogy to Bitcoin.
You believe in banks, the Federal Reserve, large institutions, trusts, funds, and insurance. But some people don’t believe it, right?
This is why people need Bitcoin.
There is one reason why Bitcoin is difficult to be understood by the Chinese people. The domestic financial system is too stable, at least on the surface and people’s perception. In fact, this is obviously not the case. After hundreds of years of turmoil in the financial industry, Americans no longer believe in what the bankers do.
There are some things that you have to experience and have been hurt before you know the pain and know you want to change. Just like many Bitcoin elders, when they really didn’t believe in exchanges and only believed in their own private keys, they all started with a thunderstorm in Mentougou.
So what is driving the rise of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem?
The reason is simple. Basically all industries have been “refurbished” on the Internet. Only the financial industry has been protected for various reasons and has not been “refurbished”, but it should come back sooner or later, but the times have chosen Nakamoto Satoshi and Bitcoin have come to fire this shot.
Of course, I still sneer at the so-called “decentralization”. The so-called decentralized finance is nothing more than “new centralization” in the end. Decentralization like Bitcoin is the right time and place, and it is really difficult to replicate.
Why is it difficult to decentralize? No rich person is willing to revoke his life for charity, and no poor person is indifferent to wealth after the revival, so centralization is inevitable. We have to accept it and don’t reject it.
However, cryptocurrency is far better than traditional industry’s deep-rooted centralization and entangled interests. It is much simpler. But in the next five years or so, there should be new solidification of benefits, so let’s talk about it then.
In the short term, it is still good. In the long term, it depends on how the Internet, which revolutionized everything in the past, has developed into now.
Breaking the monopolist will always form a new and more terrifying monopoly.
So when someone mocked Bitcoin and said that Satoshi Nakamoto engraved “Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks” on the genesis block, why is Bitcoin so popular with bankers now?
In fact, this is natural. The world is still theirs. Bitcoin has been given to ordinary people for ten years. The cost of bitcoin in the hands of bankers is higher than that of all participants in early bitcoin, and 80% of all ordinary participants.
However, they will still acquire Bitcoin at a high cost, and eventually form a new barrier and a new “monopoly” based on Bitcoin.
A bloodless revolution is always incomplete. But we made a big change, they paid a lot of cost, enough.
In the new financial consolidation system that is destined to form in the future, it is also one of the long-term creeds of Bitcoin to accumulate bargaining chips for future market games at a lower cost.
On the surface, retail investors in this market worship long-term creeds, but in fact they worship short-term creeds.
The seemingly chaotic market is actually very orderly.
All investment behaviors of people are just using various gestures on the basis of Bitcoin, adding leverage.
The holy grail of the entire market is the increase in the overall market value of the cryptocurrency market, and the value rotation caused by the rise and fall of the market value of Bitcoin in the process. Liquidity shuttles between different sectors, bringing a continuous source of wealth effect.
But in the long run, liquidity will eventually be concentrated on Bitcoin and other high-quality projects. In the long run, the market value should account for about 70%, and the market value platform is mainly broken by Bitcoin. The other 30% will soon rise to 100 billion U.S. dollars, 200 billion U.S. dollars or even higher, which can accommodate 100 billion U.S. dollars of high-quality top cryptocurrency, and many tens of billions of high-quality projects.
After reading this passage, many people will most forget the word “long-term” and remember all the content that follows.
In the long term, these two words are the most boring words in Amber. Bitcoin has indeed returned to near the highest point in history. In the past ten years, only three days have been bought and you will lose money. In terms of probability, it is less than one in a thousand. To.
But there are absolutely no 999 per thousand people who make money in Bitcoin investment. This is the performance of short-term creeds that have severely suppressed long-term creeds.
Talking about it for a long time in this market is a bit of a joke. After all, people are here to pursue riches overnight. Who has come to accompany Bitcoin for a few days?
Let one count as one. I hope everyone can embrace the long-term creed and be a minority in this seemingly chaotic but orderly market.
the above.
