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The weekly trading volume of Bitcoin futures and options both decreased by more than 20%, the trading volume of Ethereum futures and options both decreased by more than 30%, and the weekly trading volume of CME Ethereum futures fell by 58%. The continuous rise of BTC option holdings PCR reveals that market sentiment is cautious. On March 26, 95,600 Bitcoin option contracts will expire, with a nominal value of over US$4.5 billion.
Written by: Karen
Weekly market dynamics
Huobi launches USDT standard perpetual contract of WOO, PHA and RVN.
FTX has now listed the perpetual contracts of DASH, QTUM and ZRX.
Overview of extreme market liquidation
At around 8 o’clock in the morning today, Bitcoin fell by nearly US$1,700 in half an hour. During this period, the entire network broke out of US$130 million, of which Bitcoin broke out of US$100 million. Bitcoin plummeted by more than US$1,500 within an hour around 1:00 on March 3, during which time the entire network liquidated a total of 160 million US dollars, and Bitcoin liquidated 110 million US dollars.
Futures liquidation statistics on BitMEX, Binance, Bybit, Huobi, MXC, OKEx, source: Coin
Trading volume and open positions
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx. The scope of Ethereum futures statistics includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bybit, CME (launched on February 7), Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
After Bitcoin surged above US$52,600 in the first three days of this week, it has now fallen back to around US$47,000. At the same time, from a short-term perspective, the weekly trading volume of Bitcoin futures (February 26 to March 4) has shrunk, with a month-on-month decrease of nearly 26%. However, the open position of Bitcoin has increased by more than 7% from last week, reaching around $15.5 billion as of March 4.
Bitcoin futures contract trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Bitcoin futures contracts, source: Skew
Ethereum’s weekly trading volume also decreased by over 33% from the previous month to USD 138.7 billion. Among them, the weekly trading volume of Ethereum futures launched by CME in February was 23.2 million USD, a drop of 58% from the previous month. In terms of holdings, although it has fallen by more than 35% from the historical high in mid-February, the value has not changed significantly in the past week.
Ethereum futures contract daily trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Ethereum futures contracts, source: Skew
It can be seen that the enthusiasm for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trading is gradually weakening, and the holdings have not rebounded significantly. In the next one or two weeks, investors need to remain cautious and continue to pay attention to transactions and holdings.
Trading volume and open positions
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bakkt, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx. The scope of Ethereum options statistics is Bit.com, Deribit, Huobi and OKEx.
Bitcoin options trading volume has also declined, with a decrease of 22% from the previous quarter to US$7.2 billion, of which Deribit’s share has risen to more than 90%. In contrast, as of March 4, Bitcoin’s open position was 11.13 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of nearly 20% from February 26.
Bitcoin options contract trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Bitcoin options contracts, source: Skew
Ethereum’s trading volume fell sharply by more than 30% month-on-month. Although the position value increased by nearly 16% month-on-month, it still did not resume the decline last Friday.
Ethereum option contract trading volume, source: Skew
Open positions in Ethereum options contracts, source: Skew
Ratio of open interest PCR
The Put/Call Ratio (PCR) is an indicator used to measure the ratio of bearish calls. If the PCR value is greater than 1, it means that the short is greater than the long; if it is less than 1, the short is less than the long.
As shown below, the ratio of Bitcoin holdings PCR has gradually increased since the end of last year, and currently reaches 0.88, indicating that market sentiment is cautious. In contrast, starting in mid-February, the ratio of Ethereum open interest PCR gradually decreased from around 0.85 to the current 0.75, and the ratio of trading volume PCR briefly rose to 1.76 on March 3 and then returned to around 0.55 again, indicating buying The volume of call options or put options sold is increasing.
Ratio of Bitcoin options open interest and trading volume PCR
The ratio of Ethereum options open interest and trading volume PCR
As stated in the previous weekly report, Bitcoin has achieved a volatility rate of more than 100% for a month, setting a new high in the past year. However, the implied volatility rate is gradually decreasing and is currently below 100%. In contrast, the realized volatility and implied volatility of Ethereum in one month both dropped from the peak in February, falling back to around 110%.
From left to right are the realized volatility of Bitcoin one month and the implied volatility of Bitcoin one month ATM
From left to right are the one-month realized volatility of Ethereum and the one-month ATM implied volatility of Bitcoin
On March 26, 95,600 Bitcoin option contracts will expire, with a nominal value of over US$4.5 billion. In Ethereum, nearly 600,000 contracts will expire on March 26, with a nominal value of over US$880 million.
Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew
Ethereum option expiration status, source: Skew
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