258 total views
Amara’s Law-We tend to overestimate the short-term effects of technology and underestimate the long-term effects.
As Bitcoin reaches new highs, an ever-present question is…how high can Bitcoin rise?
Encryption is the biggest thing in human history
Amara’s law shows that we underestimate the impact of Bitcoin
At the parity of $1 (100 cents = 100 saturation = 1 dSat or USD SAT) Bitcoin is worth $1 million
Although it is difficult to understand the market value of 18.5 trillion U.S. dollars (1 million U.S. dollars per bitcoin), we have to reach only 5% of the global stock and bond market value by 2031, or equal to the value of gold in 2031, or by increasing since March Since, Apple’s daily added value
I wrote a stupid report about predicting the price of Bitcoin even after a year, but this did not stop me from making price predictions. Therefore, although this is a price prediction that I would accept, it is more about providing background information for the $1 million bitcoin.
I know many people will laugh at me. Maybe they are right. But I am not writing this article to convince opponents. This is the growing society of people (including Michael Thaler, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Bill Miller…) who have seen the encrypted light. I was ridiculed before for making seemingly outdated predictions and proved to be correct. and so……
USD 1 per dSat = USD 1 million per Bitcoin
The atomic unit of the US dollar is 0.01 US dollars, which is 1 cent. 100 of these atomic units are called dollars.
Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million atomic units, or satoshis (or sats for short).
100 of these atomic units (me) are called “dollar satellites”, or dSa t for short.
If the 100 atomic units of Bitcoin are equal to the 100 atomic units of 1 USD, then we have 1 million USD of Bitcoin.
The value of 1 USD per dSat is equivalent to a fully diluted Bitcoin market value of 18.5 trillion USD (assuming a loss of 2.5 million Bitcoin, which is a lower estimate). It is difficult for the human mind to understand such a large number, so we often ignore it because we cannot put it in context. Therefore, the rest of this article will provide background information for $18.5 trillion.
The market value of the U.S. dollar (ie, M2) is 19.2 trillion U.S. dollars and is growing rapidly
M2 includes all cash and coins in circulation and checking accounts (M1), as well as currency in savings accounts and money market funds that can be easily converted into cash.
Since the launch of the latest round of quantitative easing in March 2020, M2 has grown by an astonishing $4.7 trillion. M2 will continue to grow in the future and is expected to reach another 1.2 trillion US dollars in 2021.
Therefore, $18.5 trillion is less than four times the total dollar printed by the Federal Reserve in the past nine months.
Since March 2020, Apple’s epic value has grown to $2.3 trillion, including a daily value increase of $4.7 billion.
In August 2018, 42 years after Apple was founded, Apple was the first company with a market value of US$1 trillion. During this period, it created an average of US$64.7 million per day to achieve a value of US$1 trillion.
It only took two years and 17 days for Apple to add another $1 trillion in value. The daily value created during these 747 days was US$1.3 billion.
However, from March 15, 2020, due to the impact of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has begun a large-scale plan to stabilize the collapsed economy, and we have entered a new currency world. The market bottomed the next day. Since then, Apple has created an average of $4.7 billion in value per day.
If an average of $4.7 billion worth of bitcoin is created from today, then by September 14, 2031, bitcoin will reach $18.5 trillion. In the next 10 years, this will increase at an annual rate of 36%.
Netflix has grown at a rate of 36% per year for 10 consecutive years, and is the best performing stock in the past decade, growing at a rate of 43.7% per year. This is done, but not often.
By 2031, Bitcoin will reach $1 million, accounting for only 5% of the total market value of global stocks and bonds
Considering the total market value of stocks and bonds today, assuming historical growth rates, Bitcoin will occupy 5% of these market values in 2031, reaching a value of $1 million.
Is 5% reasonable? You can decide for yourself, but given the unique properties of Bitcoin, it doesn’t feel unreasonable to me.
If it is equal to the market value of gold in 2031, Bitcoin will reach $1 million
Taking into account the total market value of gold today, the value of Bitcoin will be equal to the value of gold in 2031, reaching $1 million.
Given all the innovations that Bitcoin brings to the store of value ecosystem, its value can easily double. Therefore, in this hypothesis, the value of Bitcoin equal to gold at the most 10 years seems to be the most reasonable.
Remember, it’s not just Bitcoin that is rising, it’s the dollar that is falling.