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The DeFi sector is booming, and more and more attention is paid to this field. From which perspectives can DeFi be interpreted, every follower needs to think about it first. This article provides three data dimensions for your reference.
Since mid-June this year, the DeFi market has been hot for several months. During this period, a picture from DeFi Pluse appeared in almost all communities and articles discussing DeFi, that is, the scale of assets locked in DeFi projects (Total Value Locked in DeFi, TVL). Since the beginning of this year, the TVL indicator has risen from a maximum of US$7 to US$9.6 billion, an increase of nearly 14 times, which can be described as breaking momentum. Recently, with the adjustment of the global capital market, cryptocurrencies have also fallen to a certain extent. The current DeFi lock-up scale is 8.35 billion US dollars, and the asset agglomeration effect is still very obvious.
Taking a closer look,
1. From the perspective of platform types, the scale of fund lockups in descending order is: Loan ($3.6 billion) > DEX ($3 billion) > Assets ($1.5 billion) > Derivatives ($1 billion) > Payments ($150 million). This shows that lending agreements and trading platforms are in a leading position in the current DeFi sector, and the direction of decentralized payment has not yet been fully developed.
2. From the perspective of distribution concentration, the distribution of locked funds among the platforms has changed more dispersedly than before. The top five platforms (Aave, Maker, Curve, Synthetix, yearn.finance) account for 61% of the total, and several months In the past, the number one Maker alone accounted for about 60%.
On the indicator of asset locking, the author has the following two views for readers’ reference:
1. The scale of asset lock-up has exploded in a short period of time, but the current US$8.35 billion is only 2.4% of the total market value of the cryptocurrency market of US$345 billion. There is still huge room for growth in the future.
2. At this stage, DeFi funds flow very frequently, mostly for the purpose of liquid mining and speculative arbitrage, and there is a phenomenon of increased leverage. In addition to paying attention to the size of funds, we should also pay attention to the long-term accumulation of funds.
User traffic is one of the most intuitive indicators for observing changes in heat. In this dimension, the number of unique addresses on the chain and monthly traffic data collected by third parties can provide us with reference.
From the data on the chain monitored by Dune Analytics, the number of unique addresses related to DeFi has changed from 100,000 at the beginning of the year to 460,000 at present, an increase of nearly five times. The daily increase reached a peak of 7k in early September, and an average of about 4k new addresses were added daily in the past 30 days.
Most DeFi agreements have their own profit models, so you can refer to traditional methods for analysis. For example, for a liquidity agreement, we can calculate its total transaction volume (similar to GMV) and get the income based on the agreement rate. In early DeFi projects, 100% of the total revenue is usually distributed to participants. In the long run, the agreement may implement revenue sharing so that the agreement (token holders) can also benefit from the total income. For the projects that issue agreement tokens, we can calculate the P/S index by matching their income to the token market value, which is similar to the traditional market-sales ratio. In the figure below, the author draws the revenue comparison of the top 15 DeFi platforms. Among them, the four platforms Uniswap, dYdX, Tokenlon and Mooniswap have not yet issued tokens, so they lack the total market value of tokens and P/S data. Two findings are worth pointing out:
1. From the perspective of platform revenue (horizontal axis), the head effect is prominent. Uniswap is the most profitable DeFi project, with an annual revenue of up to 400 million US dollars, which is comparable to the profitability of a leading centralized exchange. The average annualized income of 15 projects is 42 million U.S. dollars, which is a significant gap compared with Uniswap. DEX is more profitable than lending projects.
2. From the perspective of the P/S indicator (vertical axis), the lower the value, the lower the valuation level, the higher the probability that the market value is overestimated. In traditional valuation, P/S values between 1 and 20 times are common levels, and 10-20 times are roughly classified as high net ratio. In terms of this indicator, the valuation level of DeFi projects is much higher than that of traditional industries. The two lowest projects are Balancer (P/S: 21 times) and Kyber Network (P/S: 24 times). The highest MakerDAO is as high as 1602 times, and the average for 15 projects is 480 times. DeFi is still in a rapid development stage. As its maturity becomes higher and higher, the market will surely construct clearer and time-tested observation indicators. The author will continue to pay attention.