In the face of “exploding” currencies, how to layout the market outlook?


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Two of the DeFi tokens have attracted attention recently, one is Link and the other is Sushi. The striking reason is the skyrocketing price.

In my impression, Link has been hovering at more than $10 for a long time, and it has exceeded $20 in one fell swoop in these two days; Sushi has hovered around $1 for a long time, and it has risen to more than $6 in these two days.

These two coins are also highly concerned by our readers, especially Sushi. After being included in the YFI ecology, it has completely turned over. The recent surge in prices has also made many people not optimistic about them. Investors began to change their views.

Many investors have invested in these two currencies, either they got off the car very early, or they bought other currencies because they were not optimistic about swapping positions. Therefore, these investors will feel strong regret and anxiety when seeing the recent trends of these two currencies.

In fact, this is a very common phenomenon in the bull market. Everyone will have this kind of experience and produce this kind of emotion, but once they have this kind of emotion, they must restrain this kind of emotion in time and remind oneself to calm down. Because if this sentiment is allowed to develop, if investors do not think rationally, they will probably blindly throw away other varieties in their hands to chase high and buy these projects. After such a swap, investors will often find out again. The horse breed that I just dumped has risen, and these two coins will not only not rise but fall.

At this time, I usually first review the projects I hold to see if their fundamentals have changed.

If their fundamentals have not changed, I will not arbitrarily sell the coins in my hand to catch up with these popular projects. I believe that with the rotation effect in the bull market, as long as the coins they hold are valuable, they can also usher in their own bright moments.

If the fundamentals of some coins in my hand have deteriorated and the potential is no longer there, then I might consider selling those coins whose fundamentals have deteriorated, and consider replacing them with other coins, but whether to exchange for these popular items depends on their prices. Is the valuation too high? If it is, I will not buy it, but will continue to look for coins with lower valuations.

Readers who have read my article last year may notice that I have also bought LINK, but I sold them all at about 8 dollars. At the time, I thought that LINK, despite being the leader in the oracle field, had not yet popularized its application to the point where it could support the price of its tokens, and it was entirely possible that there would be new competitors in this field, so I think its valuation If it was too high, it was all sold.

Now look at LINK. Its leading position in the oracle field should be more stable than last year: on the one hand, it is increasing its cooperation with projects in the industry; on the other hand, its competitors seem to have not taken decent moves yet. Therefore, looking at its fundamentals now is very good, but I still feel that it is worthy of careful assessment to see how much room it has upside in the future based on its current price.

I remember that after I sold LINK for $8 last year, it was all replaced by Ethereum. At that time, the price of Ethereum was about $300. Now the price of Ethereum is close to 1,200, an increase of almost 4 times, while the current price of LINK is $21. , The increase was less than 3 times. So looking back at the practice of discarding LINK at that time, there was nothing wrong with it.

Now I will continue to pay attention to LINK, but will not buy at this price.

A reader once asked me what I think about Sushi. I said at the time that if I compare Sushi to UNI, I am more optimistic about UNI. The biggest reason why I was not optimistic about Sushi at the time was that a series of operations by his founder made me think that a project is led by such a team and the prospects are worrying.

However, afterwards, Sushi was fully taken over and included in the YFI ecology. The entire project seemed to be rejuvenated, and it was getting rid of the shadows it once had, and from the downturn. In the future, whether it can rush into the circle of first-line exchanges, let us wait and see. I will follow Sushi, but I will not buy it now.