Latest observations: 7 judgments on the reasons and trends of this round of Bitcoin bull market

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Author | Wang Dashu original title: 7 judgments on the reasons and trends of this round of Bitcoin bull market

01

Individual Investor Frank: The asset allocation strategy of the giant whales such as Grayscale is not a reference

From a long-term perspective, the volatility of the entire crypto market is declining. Excluding the extreme market of 312, the intraday volatility of Bitcoin is now rarely higher than 5%. Whether it is floating chips locked or lost, in short, the entire market floating chips Fewer and fewer. In addition, from the perspective of grayscale increasing positions, Bitcoin has become a digital gold, which is entirely an asset attribute, and in this process, I am most afraid that everyone will still use the pre-2019 thinking model to examine this market.

Because before the end of 2019, the market has been making money on both longs and shorts, and even shorts have made more money, but this year is different. The current long and short competition is actually not fierce. The market is more in a state of rush to raise money. The air force of the United States has hit the market, so if the old thinking is used to make investment strategies this time, it is likely to lose all the chips.

In this case, for the exchange or some institutions, it is very likely that the low position does not cover the position and the reserve is insufficient, which can easily cause a run risk.

However, this is both an impact and reflection. In the past few years from 2017 to the present, in fact, China has always wanted to keep up with the entire industry chain of cryptocurrency, but we did not solve the problem. At the moment, Bitcoin is rising by itself, which has nothing to do with the development of the industry. For example, These links in the industry chain such as wallets are not very profitable. At present, the rise in the price of Bitcoin or the rise in the market of cryptocurrencies is good for mining and mining chips.

Of course, this is for the industry, and for ordinary investors, it is not necessary to be too excited, because Bitcoin is almost a series of accidents. The asset allocation strategy of these institutions in Grayscale has almost no reference for everyone. Their investment in mainstream crypto assets is only a little bit of the asset scale of more than tens of billions of dollars. They are more afraid of missing opportunities in this era, so one It doesn’t matter if you go to zero, but it is obviously unbearable for ordinary investors to go to zero.

02

Sam Trabucco, trader at Alameda Research: Although BTC prices have risen, liquidity has not really changed much

The risk of investing in mainstream crypto assets is that they generally have greater volatility than traditional financial assets. Due to the lack of investment banks’ prime brokerage business (Prime Brokerage), the leveraged margin management of encrypted assets is also much more complicated than that of traditional financial assets. This makes large-scale liquidation very common, and it also means that it is difficult for any investor holding a leveraged position. There is a risk.

Although the price of Bitcoin is currently rising, due to BitMEX’s increasingly strict KYC review and the suspension of its withdrawal business by OKEx, many companies perceive the risks that follow and suspend their trading activities on OKEx. , Bitcoin’s liquidity has not really changed much.

However, it is undeniable that the rising market of Bitcoin is accompanied by many organizations claiming that they are buying Bitcoin, or showing a more open attitude towards cryptocurrencies in other ways, making people believe that Bitcoin prices may continue to usher in breakthroughs and advance. Buying Bitcoin would be a good strategy. But it is still unclear whether this will really meet the market expectations, and Alameda Research does not have any specific expectations here.

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So, if you are an ordinary investor, don’t think that any naive model will automatically be established (Bitcoin has been rising, so it will always rise; Bitcoin has reached X price once, so it will rise). Because prices are more random than they seem, and harder to predict.

03

Candaq CEO Lin Zihao: I am used to thinking backwards and never earn the last piece of copper

May be more pessimistic and accustomed to thinking backwards. I think that the Bitcoin price of $20,000 is a resistance level. At the moment when most people think it will break through the previous high, I just think there will be a strategic contraction, which means that this wave of market is basically over.

On the one hand, there have been no major technological breakthroughs in the past two years, and at the same time, there has not been a very unified bull market consensus. People familiar with the operation of traditional financial institutions understand that very few institutions will operate publicly, so I put these institutions’ Public appreciation is regarded as a dangerous signal, because large positions must be opened in a bear market. Although it cannot be said whether the price has reached the top, we must pay attention to risks in this process and never earn the last piece of copper.

On the other hand, most people in this market are out of the picture, and there is no typical bull market speculative atmosphere and psychological basis. In addition, the current Bitcoin circulation rate and turnover rate are much lower, indicating that most of the positions are in large positions. In the hands of institutions, unilateral increases are not ruled out, and how much the increase depends on the psychological expectations of the institutions.

Although there will be some impact on the Chinese market dominated by Bitcoin at the moment, it may be a good thing for Chinese investors. The most unstable factor in China is policy. China’s market comes from speculation and ends. Regarding policy, this is basically a habitual script of the past few years, and in my opinion, it is not a healthy cycle. The reduction in the weight of the overall impact of the Chinese market on the market can be eliminated to a certain extent. The influence of market conditions can thus highlight the economic cyclicality and regularity of Bitcoin or the cryptocurrency world.

04

Ruomise, Dean of RTA: The market is always there, but those who want to catch every profit will eventually be out

We are currently in the early stages of the third round of the bull market in the digital currency market. Recently, Grayscale and other giant whales have bought mainstream crypto assets. Now it is only their opening stage. After the opening stage, there will be a consolidation stage. Spots can ignore prices and dance with institutions, but there is a lot of uncertainty in futures after the price rises rapidly. If you use highly leveraged futures to enter the market, there is a high probability of death in the darkness before dawn.

In fact, in the digital currency market, Bitcoin is still an effective market. It is impossible to only rise and not fall, and it is impossible to only fall without rising. The Air Force will only be late and not be absent. And from the technical analysis of wave theory, there is a high probability that this wave will be the last wave of this year, and it will face daily and even weekly corrections. Of course, if Bitcoin breaks through $20,000 this year, it means that the analysis has failed.

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I personally have a full position near 10500, 14,000 clearance futures, and 16,000 clearance spot. I am currently in a short state. But as a trader, transactions that do not lose money are correct. I will patiently wait for the market to pull back or oscillate before choosing an opportunity to enter the market. The market is always there, and those who want to grab every wave of profits will eventually get out early.

05

Mint, the founder of Wonder Capital: Domestic influence on Bitcoin is waning

At present, Bitcoin has rushed to more than 18,000 US dollars, and it is very likely to break new highs in the short term. However, in view of OKex’s passive lock-up of 300,000 pieces, gray-scale holdings of 500,000 pieces, Blockone holdings of 140,000 pieces, and the shrinking channels for miners to sell coins , Bitcoin will face a sharp drop in liquidity and even exhaustion.

Now the positions of large institutions are obvious, with 500,000 grayscale and 140,000 blockones. More institutions will be involved in the future. The addition of these large institutions can promote the local compliance of Bitcoin and illustrate the world comparison. The recognition of Bitcoin is improving, and Bitcoin has become more tenacious after its tenth year of development.

In fact, Grayscale and other overseas institutions have started to deploy bitcoin very early. This year, they have opened a lot of positions. These mature institutions must have received 70% to 80% of the currency before they release their position information. The entry of overseas institutions will rapidly change the current Bitcoin market structure.

The domestic influence on Bitcoin is rapidly weakening. Although before that, we had incomparable advantages in Bitcoin chips, mining machines, mining pools, exchanges, etc.

The interest of overseas institutions in Bitcoin is multifaceted. They are not satisfied with the status quo of holding positions, but have a deep layout for the upstream and downstream of Bitcoin. The most obvious performance is the transfer of mines . Previously, mining was mostly distributed in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. Now it is moving to countries and places with cheaper electricity resources, such as Outer Mongolia, Canada, Iceland and the Middle East.

The second is the rise of private mining pools. More and more invisible computing power has been discovered. They have not been included in the three major mining pools. Self-built private pools have their own computing power . I believe that in the near future, the pattern of the three major mining pools will also be changed.

Again, the dilemma of the exchange . The lower the liquidity in the secondary market, the greater the price volatility. From the perspective of the current holdings of these giant whales, the current holdings of any one can affect the price of the currency, whether it is a rise or a hit. When the amount of money held by these institutions reaches a certain level, they will choose to trade on their own territory. After all, there is no sovereign state that will allow other intruders to touch the sensitive zone of blockchain finance. The existing exchange platform may soon withdraw from the stage of history.

As a coin hoarding party and a miner, I have completely participated in the three cycles of Bitcoin. I have been studying Bitcoin since 2013. In the past few years, I have completely participated in the upstream and downstream industries of Bitcoin. From my own experience, I have Bitcoin will definitely rise. But in the short term, the market is treacherous and volatile, and for ordinary investors, the risk is high.

Bitcoin is a highly volatile speculative product in the short term, but in the long term it is a good investment target. This round of Bitcoin’s rise is fast and has a long dormant period.

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In fact, the fundamentals of Bitcoin have not changed. The essence of this round of Bitcoin’s rise is due to the halving of production. It is because of the impact of the epidemic and the excessive financial leverage since 18 years, which caused the previous price of Bitcoin to be seriously underestimated by the market. The core reason why the currency quickly rebounded back to its 17-year high was the result of the halving of Bitcoin’s production and the further increase in global consensus on Bitcoin. Judging from this trend, the prediction that many people may never own a Bitcoin may become a reality.

06

Zhao Yi, founder of Whale Exchange: The real mainstream institutional investors have not yet entered the market

I am more optimistic that the price of Bitcoin will exceed $20,000 and hit a record high. The reason is that the real mainstream institutional investors have not yet entered. The AUM of global asset management is about $75 trillion, which is currently the largest investment institution in crypto assets. Grayscale has only held more than 10 billion US dollars in positions. At present, it can only be regarded as a small lotus with a sharp corner, and it has just begun.

The current gray scale is a bright card, optimistic about the long-term value of mainstream encrypted assets, but I have been telling friends around me that assets should not be all in. It is recommended to invest 1% of household assets in mainstream encrypted assets such as Bitcoin. Weekly vote is enough.

07

PayPal Finance CEO Yang Zhou: Bitcoin’s hedging effect is being recognized, and we must be cautious about possible selling pressure

It seems that Bitcoin will always fluctuate at the end of each year. In December 2017, Bitcoin reached its highest price at the time of 19,783 US dollars. This year, if you want to break through 20,000 US dollars, there may be a resistance level. In theory, the breakthrough may not be particularly fast. A process of accumulating energy.

In fact, with the holdings of overseas investment institutions, it is not difficult to see that cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, as an alternative asset, is gaining recognition from more and more mainstream investors.

Judging from the current results, the entry of Grayscale and other institutions has indeed built a good fundamental. The increase in holdings of institutions even exceeds the current output of Bitcoin. Moreover, the internal leverage of the industry is more cautious than before, so in the short term The collapse of the inner image 312 is difficult to appear, which is a manifestation of the stable development of the market.

However, it is still necessary to consider that the incremental funds represented by grayscale will have the possibility of selling pressure; in addition, the traditional financial view of Bitcoin is more of alternative assets, and when the situation changes, there will be obvious investment orientations. In the future, the situation changes, the institution may adjust, and this will be a potential risk for the market.

Of course, both institutions and retail investors still need more patience and rational strategies, looking long-term, and being friends of time. There are also many noteworthy signals, such as the investment in Bitcoin by listed companies in the United States.

Take PayPal as an example. Its way of participating in the market is different from Grayscale, but it can drive a lot of energy. Although there are no statistics on the recently launched Bitcoin purchase service, if PayPal can do well in this service, The competitiveness and influence of the United States will be very large. Coupled with PayPal’s influence in the payment field, it is very likely to produce a push-type development for encrypted finance.