Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings

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On October 10th, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (September 30-October 6). During the statistical period, the overall market performance was stable, and the BTC price did not experience significant fluctuations. Therefore, the market The “interference” of volatility on the adjustment of various accounts has been significantly reduced. The current position report can clearly show the most “direct” long-short tendency of various accounts.

The number of total positions (total open positions) rebounded from a historical high of 7,324 to 7,511 in the latest data. The continuous shrinking momentum in the previous two weeks has stopped, but the data is still at a low level in the past six months. nearby.

In terms of sub-data, large-scale brokers’ long positions rebounded from 525 to 703. After nearly two weeks of holdings, the sharp reduction in mid-September was basically fully covered, with short positions starting from 28. Zhang bounced back to 64 at the same time. Large institutions have been replenishing their positions for nearly two weeks after a wave of extreme lightening in mid-September. After the end of the latest statistical cycle, the current long position has returned to a historical high of more than 700. At the same time, the short position has also returned. At the high point for a whole month. Although this type of account has carried out a simultaneous increase of long and short holdings, from the perspective of the specific adjustment range, the long-term overweight attitude of large institutions has reproduced.

Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings
Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings

In the latest statistical period, the long position of leveraged fund accounts rebounded from 2004 to 2,153, and the short position simultaneously rebounded from 4,730 to 4,854. The net air-conditioning position of leveraged funds in the last holding period did not continue, and the two-way synchronization in the latest statistical period After the increase in holdings, the ratio of long and short positions has not changed significantly. It can be considered that leveraged funds are still focused on seeking stability during the market sideways stage, and there is no “early” long and short unilateral bet.

Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings
Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings

In terms of large positions, long positions rebounded from 1,590 to 1,604, and short positions rebounded from 1,482 to 1,747. Large accounts have undergone a net long position adjustment in the previous statistical cycle, and this period of time such accounts have also undergone a certain amount of simultaneous long and short two-way holdings, and no continuous one-way position adjustment has been made. The current position adjustment is also carried out in a relatively conservative situation, but after a short period of time last week, the position has returned to the net short position this week.

It can be seen that although many types of accounts have not made clear unilateral adjustments, the overall market sentiment is biased towards increasing positions. Optimism is gradually returning to the market during the sideways trading process. Several rapid corrections in the previous period have affected the overall sentiment. The impacts of this can be effectively digested in a short period of time.

Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings
Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings

In terms of retail holdings, long positions rebounded slightly from 2,649 to 2,696, and short positions fell from 528 to 491. The more interesting point is that retail investors have become the only account that has clearly unilaterally adjusted positions in the latest statistical cycle. During the sideways market phase, retail investors performed net long position adjustments. This is the first time since the week of July 28 this year. . Of course, since the extent of position adjustment is very limited, the value of this net long position adjustment is relatively low, especially for retail investors who have a long-term attitude of overweight. This kind of position adjustment is not surprising.

Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings
Market optimism returns, retail investors show net long position adjustment for the first time after ten weeks | CFTC COT weekly report on Bitcoin holdings

Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?

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