Market sentiment is severely divided, and short positions of asset management institutions hit a record high | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

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On May 1, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (April 21-April 27). In the latest statistical period, BTC fell first and then rebounded. It rebounded rapidly on the last two trading days of the statistical period. After the market went out, the final “effective drop” for the entire week was only about $1,000. However, considering that a new low of nearly one and a half months was reached during this statistical period, how much the “negative” impact of this deep correction on market sentiment can be weakened by a wave of rebound is the focus of this weekly position report.

The total number of positions (the total number of open positions) in the latest period of data further dropped from 8,817 to 8,429, continuing the downward trend of the previous statistical cycle, continuing to brush the low level of nearly 7 weeks, from the level of the overall position. It can be seen that the market’s participation enthusiasm in the short term has been further frustrated, and the rebound at the end of the latest statistical cycle has not been able to drive the market to pick up quickly.

In terms of sub-data, the largest dealers’ long positions have dropped from 516 to 489, and their short positions have dropped from 87 to 41, continuing to hit a new low of nearly 27 weeks. Long and short (hedged) positions have since 70. Zhang Da rose to 305, the performance of this value in the latest statistical cycle has greatly refreshed the historical high level. Large institutions failed to predict this round of callbacks in advance, and continued to lighten their positions during the price callback process, and have been adjusting their positions under a risk control approach. However, such a large increase in hedged positions in the latest statistical cycle shows that this type of account has begun to try to “make up” for the positions that have been reduced in the past few statistical cycles. Therefore, it can be considered that large institutions have not fully understood the direction of the BTC market outlook. Lose confidence.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

The long positions of asset management institutions fell slightly from 372 to 369, and the short positions further rose from 554 to 869, which reached a record high. Two-way positions rebounded from 0 to 20. Asset management institutions have carried out clearer net air-conditioning positions in the latest statistical cycle, and the performance of short positions substantially refreshing the current historical high level demonstrates the extremely rare bearish attitude of such institutions. As mentioned in the previous issue of the weekly report, asset management agencies continue to tilt their positions to the short side even when the market has dropped significantly. At present, this type of account has become the most steadfast short-term supporter in the short term.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of the leveraged fund account fell sharply from 2616 to 1991, a record low of nearly 8 weeks. At the same time, the value fell below 2000 for the first time in the past two months, and the short position simultaneously dropped from 6,709 to 5,464. , This value hit a 29-week low, and the two-way holdings dropped slightly from 328 to 325. Leveraged funds continued to simultaneously reduce their long and short positions in the latest statistical cycle. However, the change in the proportion of long and short positions after the position adjustment is not very obvious. Therefore, in addition to risk control and lightening of positions, this type of account does not actually express any particularity. Strong long-short unilateral tendency.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of large holdings, long positions further dropped from 2,173 to 2040, short positions fell from 268 to 169, and two-way positions rose from 90 to 205, a record high in nearly 13 weeks. Large accounts are the only account that accurately predicts the latest round of market corrections. The net air-conditioning warehouse ideas maintained in the last statistical period are once again validated by the market. In the short term, the position adjustment of this type of account is still of considerable reference value. . However, in the latest statistical cycle, such accounts did not continue to make clear one-way position adjustments. Instead, while continuing to reduce long and short unilateral positions, they significantly increased the hedged positions. This idea of ​​adjusting positions is very similar to the dealer account mentioned above. It can be seen that the room for further decline of BTC in the future may be quite limited.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of retail holdings, long positions rebounded from 2,652 to 2,685, and short positions rose sharply from 711 to 1031. The market performance that hit a new low for more than a month has stimulated retail accounts to increase short positions. Although long positions have also risen slightly, judging from the magnitude of the two-way position adjustment, the short-term sentiment of retail investors has reached a new level. The apex.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What is the value? How to interpret it?

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