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Taking the opportunity of the Spring Festival holiday to further improve and upgrade the data of the weekly report, the release time of this week’s report has been lagging behind. The value of this routine update is mainly reflected in a brief introduction to the new data. The future weekly report will The newly-added data is continuously updated and interpreted, and strives to more comprehensively restore the position adjustment logic and emotional fluctuations of the Bitcoin futures market participants on the CME platform.
On February 13, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (February 3-February 9). During the latest statistical cycle, BTC surged by US$12,000, officially breaking through the US$40,000 integer mark and continued to accelerate. There is no sign of stopping the upswing and turning down. In the last statistical cycle, the partial air-conditioning warehouse logic of many types of accounts, including asset management institutions, was “falsified” by the market, and the market’s continuous breakthrough to new highs also rekindled the popularity of the pursuit. .
The number of total positions (total open positions) rebounded from 9,469 to 1,055 in the latest data. This value fully recovered the reduction in the previous statistical period and set a new high in the last three statistical periods. Short-term market participation is hot As the currency price accelerates and picks up rapidly, the anxious atmosphere displayed in the last statistical cycle seems to have been broken by the high currency price.
In terms of sub-data, the largest dealer accounts have “officially” participated in the market in the past two months or so. Such accounts have been very low in position adjustment enthusiasm for a long time and have not been active. Participate in the investment and allocation of Bitcoin futures. With the emergence of the bull market since the second half of last year, large institutions are “involuntarily” beginning to allocate cryptocurrency assets. Therefore, starting from this weekly report, dealer accounts will be added The performance of positions.
At the end of the latest statistical period, dealers had 387 long positions, 564 short positions, and 89 long and short (hedged) positions. Among them, the so-called long and short two-way positions mean the same number of long and short positions. Taking the dealer’s position in this week’s report as an example, 89 long and short two-way positions represent the “combination” of 89 long and 89 short positions. With the increase of market participants, the enthusiasm of institutions and large investors to adjust such “self-hedging” two-way positions has also increased significantly. This kind of positions will become more and more non-negligible in the proportion of total positions. Therefore, in future weekly positions , Will also add long and short two-way position data for asset management institutions, leveraged funds and large accounts.
At present, dealers’ positions are relatively short. Compared with the long and short performance of the previous statistical period, this type of account actually carried out “contrarian” net air-conditioning positions in the latest statistical period. It has not made the choice of catching up with more. It can be seen that the potential risks of assets that “dancing” near this historical high level are difficult to truly ignore for relatively traditional institutional investors.
The long positions of asset management institutions rose from 308 to 348, the short positions fell from 357 to 265, and the two-way positions were 26. The net position of this type of account quickly returned to net long after a short period of time in the previous statistical period. Asset management agencies in the latest statistical period decisively abandoned the partial air-conditioning idea of the past few statistical periods and started anew. Net multi-position adjustment. This can basically be regarded as the fact that such institutional investors have “recognized” the partial air-conditioning warehouses in the past few statistical cycles, and no longer hold a monotonous risk approach to the Bitcoin market outlook, and instead believe that the market is further strengthening under the current upward momentum. There is still room for this, which is undoubtedly exciting news for short-term bulls.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts rebounded from 3031 to 3149, ending the continuous decline in the past three statistical periods. Short positions increased from 7,224 to 8,481, and two-way positions rose from 456 to 665 . The large position increase of leveraged funds often occurs when such accounts have a relatively large attitude towards the market outlook. Therefore, it can be considered that the cautious attitude of such accounts in the past period has also changed in the context of the market surge.
In terms of large positions, long positions have risen from 2008 to 2822, short positions have further dropped from 161 to 64, and two-way positions have risen from 57 to 146. Large accounts have resolutely adjusted their net long positions in the latest statistical cycle, and the increase in their holdings in a single week has reached a new high since mid-August last year. This shows that such accounts are very active in catching up with the trend. , To sweep away the bearish sentiment when the position was significantly lightened for two consecutive weeks.
In terms of retail positions, long positions rebounded from 3,070 to 3,423, and short positions rose from 651 to 755. Different from the clear net-long position adjustment of asset management institutions and large investors, retail investors who performed most emotionally before have carried out a two-way simultaneous increase of long and short holdings more similar to leveraged funds in the latest statistical cycle. However, this type of account almost covered all the long positions that were cut in the previous two weeks within a week, so it also expressed an over-weight attitude.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What is the value? How to interpret it?
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