Opinion: What is the probability that Ethereum will get 600 USD in the short term? Why chase storage hotspots cautiously

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Stories that have not yet landed are good stories (Daewoo)

“The longer the sideways, the more fierce the market.” The current Bitcoin and Ethereum have been sideways for a long time, and they have experienced very small fluctuations. With Bitcoin as the rate, there have only been 7 current sideways fluctuations in history— -Of those 7 times, 6 times there was an astonishing skyrocket. With a probability of 1:6, we can first assume that this time it is still skyrocketing. In contrast, I will pay more attention to Ethereum instead of Bitcoin, because it is almost certain that Ethereum must have a stronger momentum than Bitcoin. fierce.

In my contract operations, I have always focused on Ethereum. This is based on the medium-term trend. From the long-term trend, the matter of buying Bitcoin should be kept in mind. Because Bitcoin has gradually become the forgotten among the continuous hot spots, the market is always contrary to what most people think. Therefore, instead of thinking that EOS, which has been at the bottom of the valley for a long time, is a good ambush, it is more important to see the current It seems that BTC without any hot spots is a good target-because if BTC that seems useless in hot spots such as DeFi and storage suddenly becomes useful, it will skyrocket, and this point will definitely increase. We are not clear about the form of arrival.

Back to the topic, will Ethereum rise to $600 in the short term?

Looking at the overall environment, the U.S. election is over and the stock market is more likely to continue to rise. At the same time, coupled with the slow introduction of vaccines into the market, the probability of economic recovery is much greater than the probability of a crash;

Judging from the hot spots of Amber, DeFI has gone through a round of heavy losses. YFI once fell by nearly 80% from nearly $50,000, approaching $10,000. It is time to look forward to a strong rebound;

The storage sector is currently taking over the next hot spot-I am not very optimistic about the highly anticipated NFT before. It is temporarily unsuccessful and will be a niche gadget in the future. The so-called hot spot is that everyone feels they can participate and Interesting speculative stuff;

The most important thing is that Ethereum 2.0 is coming soon, the latest testnet will be launched tomorrow, and the final stage 0 is expected to be launched before December, and even if the ticket is skipped again, the second layer network will allow the transaction speed of Ethereum A 100-fold increase, and don’t forget, Polkadot’s 2.0 auction will also come in December. So, the market now seems a bit interesting?

Today, I will focus on two aspects: the probability that Ethereum will get 600 USD in the short term? Why chase storage hotspots cautiously.

1. The wonderful story of Ethereum 2.0

Ethereum’s strong rise this year is mainly due to DeFi. The failure of mining a while ago made short DeFi “politically correct”. As long as it is a DeFi currency, short shorts can make money without thinking. From the leading YFI to UNI , And then to LINK, it is the same, but this also verifies an eternal truth in the market: the price will always fluctuate around the price-as a long-term spot player, always enter the market when the price is lower than the value.

But DeFi is still the DeFi. Although it continues to decline, the DeFi ecosystem is still booming, and the majority of the development of the DeFi ecosystem is still in ETH. For other public chains, I was once wise to think that TRON’s silky experience might allow it to challenge ETH with the help of DeFi Dongfeng. Now I think that is really stupid. Sure enough, only the market is the smartest—— You can see that 90% of DeFi projects choose ETH instead of other public chains. Therefore, if you don’t study deeply, it is better to believe in the market and capital.

By the same token, those who think that the above DeFi experience is very good because EOS has fallen enough, and are worth looking forward to may also have to reflect on it. Since it is so good, why has capital no choice?

At present, the ecological development of Ethereum is very stable and rapid, as shown below:

观点:以太坊短期内上600美金的概率有多大?为什么要谨慎追击存储热点

In the continuous development of these projects, there are now many functions such as lending, trading, investment, and insurance. Recall that the earliest blockchain only had a transfer function. Later, a financing function on a smart contract was added to detonate a big bull market, and DeFi is equivalent to building a new world on Ethereum. This new world is a new one. Story, but not just a story, it is indeed bringing prices to countless people.

The biggest problem with Ethereum is that it is “expensive and slow”. On the other hand, what if this problem is solved? 2.0 is the most noteworthy point. The latest news is that Ethereum 2.0 project leader Danny Ryan announced on Twitter that the last test Zinken before the official launch of the first phase of Ethereum will be launched at 8 pm tomorrow night. In fact, before this, there have been several such testnets online. Although they are not really online, as long as the news is published by the financial media, Ethereum will be able to soar for a while-so when I wrote this article today, Ethereum’s The price is still 373, you may think it is “expensive”, but if you take a long-term perspective, you may have a different view.

Second, 100 times the speed of Ethereum

Many people worry that the 2.0 launch will be delayed. In fact, this is indeed possible. For example, if there are any problems found in the test, it is actually not a big problem. To put it another way, 2.0 is still a long way from the real large-scale landing, because the launch is divided into several stages, but before that, it is necessary to ensure that you have 32 ETH in your hands-by then There is compound interest.

However, the slow implementation of 2.0 is not a big problem, because now the second-layer network of Ethereum is developing rapidly, and they are rushing to compete with 2.0. They will play an alternative role before then. Take a look at their names:

观点:以太坊短期内上600美金的概率有多大?为什么要谨慎追击存储热点

The role of these projects, for example, Ethereum is currently like a national road. Everyone rides bicycles on this road. Suddenly, because of the emergence of DeFi, everyone drives large trucks on the road, which leads to extremely congested roads, pedestrians, Large trucks, carriages, and motorcycles are in a mess, and the second-tier network is a group of road repairers. They drove a small road next to the national highway, allowing different project parties and people with different purposes to drive on the roads nearby. .

Some small trucks and small trucks can be loaded with large trucks on the side of the national highway, so the national highway has become much more refreshing. According to the official statement, this approach can increase the speed of Ethereum by 100 times-in fact, it is also accompanied by a rapid decline in fees.

The 2.0 upgrade can actually be understood as the construction of a brand new highway above the current national highway, or even an exclusive road for maglev trains. When the project is completely relocated, the world will be different.

I am not a programmer. I used to worry about whether this matter would be successful. I always felt that it was too difficult, but now I don’t care. Because no matter whether it succeeds or not, as long as the story has not landed, we think he has the possibility of success, which does not prevent me from making him a key speculator.

In addition, again, the market is smarter than me, and the capital is more insightful than me. The ecology on Ethereum is developing in this way. What should I worry about?

3. Technical analysis of Ethereum

Although I have said a lot of optimistic judgments, in the medium-term trend, the rise of Ethereum is a high probability event, but more people are concerned about the short-term trend, that is, whether it can rise recently-in fact, the short-term trend is almost impossible Forecast, but you can analyze different situations, and make transaction plans in advance according to different situations, the so-called “plan and act later.”

First, let’s focus on the market’s sentiment indicators:

观点:以太坊短期内上600美金的概率有多大?为什么要谨慎追击存储热点

The current mood is not high. Judging from the changes in mood throughout the year, there are signs of starting to rise:

观点:以太坊短期内上600美金的概率有多大?为什么要谨慎追击存储热点

But in spite of this, look at the two-hour K-line graph. As of 7:30 in the morning when I wrote the article, my indicator has already given 2 sell signals, and I have been holding yesterday’s small gap. Single (I prefer to be long and short for small):

观点:以太坊短期内上600美金的概率有多大?为什么要谨慎追击存储热点

These signals are only given mechanically based on some traditional technical analysis. The accuracy can be seen before, and the overall winning rate can still be maintained-but the winning rate in the transaction is not important, the important thing is what strategy you adopt.

Over the past few days, I have been emphasizing that if I break through 11000, I will calmly look at more. It’s my approach to watch BTC and ETH, just like many people watch the S&P 500 and do the Nasdaq. They are stable but strong.

The current market actually fell after the sharp rise. Whether this is a temporary correction or a market reversal, no one knows, the price should never be guessed, and think about different situations.

The Yinxian that had fallen before hit the 1-hour MA20 line, and it fell through once, and now the volume has fallen short again, so in the short term, I still have a small short order from yesterday (the long order has been pulled back to 375 Closing the position), although the current sideways show that the longs will not give up easily, but whether they can win, we don’t care, wait for the long and short to win, we can follow the winning side, please set two price reminders, or Hang the plan order (the plan order must have a stop loss function).

That is, the two prices of 368 and 376, which are both at the 1-hour level, which are suitable for short-term. If it arrives, please keep an eye on the market if possible. If the volume rises or falls quickly, then chase immediately and set it at the same time Minimal stop loss to prevent false actions. Pay attention to one thing. At the end of my article, I recommend many different exchanges, but the trading strategies I mentioned in this paragraph will not work on most exchanges, such as the rapid decline in the market. Your stop loss can’t be triggered at all, or there is a slippage, it will not be worth the loss-unless your multiple is lower, the risk is very high.

But if your exchange can set the stop loss in advance, and it is accurate to achieve no slippage, then you can try, like me, if the amount of 368 falls is very large, then I will open a 100 times short, and then put the stop loss on 368.5 and the like , If it is a fake break, my order is stopped and the loss is small, but if it is a real break, I have to test 350, then my profit-loss ratio is not 1:3, but more than 1:20.

The short-term risk is extremely high. If there is no extremely high profit, why not have fun with the spot? Right, after all, the contract itself has high risks. High-risk must pursue high-yield, otherwise the risk-return will not be equal, and you will have to bear high handling fees and high slippage, which is really a loss.

From the mid-term trend, let’s deduce the time of 600 on Ethereum and look at the daily K-line:

观点:以太坊短期内上600美金的概率有多大?为什么要谨慎追击存储热点

At the daily level, the 120-day line is still far below, indicating that the bull market of Ethereum is still very stable, while the 20-day line and the 60-day line will turn up, and from the 60-day deduction price, 20 days later, 60 The daily deduction price will drop sharply. If the price is still near now, above 350, then the 60-day line will rise sharply, that is, the upward pressure will be empty. It is a good idea to rush to 600 in several waves. point.

If conversely, in the next 20 days, the price will not only not rise, but will continue to fall, then, after more than 30 days, the 120-day deduction price will gradually rise, which means that the 120-day line will turn its head down and attract the 20th. Yes, the 60-day line starts to turn around. It would be very dangerous, but it is not possible at present.

But in any case, if Ethereum falls fiercely, then you must consider trying to take the position of 356. This is an extremely dense chip area, and it is also at the position of the MA90 daily line. Unless there is no resistance, you must boldly take it. If the stop loss is high, put 345-348, and if it is low, put 326—this is the MA120 daily line. If the stop loss is hit, it can only mean that the bear is coming. I don’t think it will come at the moment, but we don’t want to predict the market. , Just think about the plan.

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