Rebound or weakness? Contract indicators sell short signals | Crypto Derivatives Weekly Report

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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the weekly derivatives report, and how to interpret it?

Futures (Bitcoin)

The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.

Liquidation overview

Last week (July 19 to July 25) Bitcoin went out of a wave of daily V-shaped reversal performance. Although at the beginning of last week, the market went out of a wave of accelerated bottoming and once fell below the 30,000 integer mark. In the second half of last week, there was a continuous rebound in the market with quite satisfactory continuity. The bearish sentiment created by the previous weak market fluctuations found an opportunity to release in the middle and late last week. Will the data in the derivatives market be compared? The obvious change in direction deserves special attention.

The total amount of liquidation in Bitcoin contracts on the main trading platform has rebounded significantly in the past week, from US$682 million to US$1 billion. The increase in short-term market activity has led to a simultaneous increase in the amount of liquidation, and market fluctuations have increased and appeared. The trend “contrary to” the weak environment of the past period of time led to this situation. However, it is worth mentioning that the only time last week where the total amount of liquidation exceeded 100 million US dollars within three hours occurred on July 20, and this occurred in the recent low of the market last week. It can be seen that, for short-term market shocks, the “damage” that can be caused by a decline is significantly stronger under the premise that the intensity difference is not large. The extreme liquidation situation on the right side of the figure below occurred this morning, and the data will be included in this week. We will not do too much expansion in this weekly report.

Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew

Trading volume

The trading volume of Bitcoin futures last week increased compared to the previous week, but the trading volume for the whole week remained at a relatively low level during the year, except for the single-day trading volume created during the market rebound on July 21. In addition to the new high, the trading volume on the remaining trading days of the week was generally sluggish, and the effect of the rebound on short-term speculation in the market was not obvious.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew

Open interest

Unlike the boring performance of volume data, the changes in Bitcoin futures positions last week are very “interesting.” There were very obvious signs of recovery in open interest in the second half of last week. Considering that the market’s trading volume during the same period was not very impressive, it can be considered that the market has made relatively concentrated contract bets after the recent rebound. Although this kind of position data does not have a clear distinction between longs and shorts, this apparent rebound in participation shows that the market has “long-standing grievances” for the weak shocks in the past period of time, and the vitality brought by the market rebound is expected to further amplify the short-term market. fluctuation.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew

Basis

The general negative performance of the multi-period basis mentioned in the previous weekly report implies that the short-term rebound is expected to be strong and smoothly fulfilled. However, as the market jumped out in the second half of last week and this morning, the current Bitcoin contract basis The situation is generally positive, which means that the market believes that there is an expectation of a short-term correction after the latest round of sharp rises, and the market is not very optimistic about further accelerating the rise.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin futures contract basis, source: Skew

Futures (Ethereum)

The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.

Liquidation Overview

Last week (July 19 to July 25) Ethereum also fell first and then rebounded. The short-term trading appearance is very similar to Bitcoin.

The total amount of liquidation in the Ethereum futures contract in the past week was 437 million US dollars. Although this value has set a new low in the near future, the fluctuation of the data in the past month or so is very limited, showing that investors in the Ethereum contract are dealing with weak shocks and In the early stage of the rebound, the market was well prepared. Similar to Bitcoin, the market experienced the largest instantaneous liquidation in the week during the round of decline last Tuesday.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew

Trading volume

The trading volume of Ethereum futures contracts rebounded slightly last week, rising from US$134 billion for the entire week to US$147 billion for the entire week. However, compared with the peak of the bull market in the second quarter of this year, this data still has a very large decline. The market is still in a “wait-and-see period” with low transaction frequency.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures trading volume, source: Skew

Open interest

Ethereum contract holdings have also increased in the past week, but the rate of increase is also weaker than that of Bitcoin. The “actual participation fever” of the Ethereum futures contract market has not recovered as much as Bitcoin in the latest statistical cycle. It is worth mentioning that under the background of the overall increase in the trading platform Ethereum contract holdings by 80 million US dollars in the second half of the week, the increase of Binance’s single platform exceeded 20 million US dollars, accounting for 4% of the total amount of 10 exchanges. One in all, Binance’s leading advantage in this contract has become more apparent.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew

Basis

The basis of the Ethereum contract is similar to that of Bitcoin. After a rapid rise this morning, contract investors have a generally bearish outlook for the market outlook, and the market has reservations about the prospect of further price increases.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures contract basis, source: Skew

Options (Bitcoin)

The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.

Trading volume

The trading volume of Bitcoin options remained relatively stable last week. The peak of the trading volume during the week occurred when the rapid decline occurred last Tuesday. However, if compared with the market performance during this morning’s surge, Bitcoin options last week The overall trading volume of the company is still at a low level since late May.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew

Open interest

Bitcoin options holdings have risen sharply in the past week. Driven by Deribit’s single-platform option holdings returning to the level of 5 billion US dollars, the total bitcoin options holdings hit a new high in the month, but considering the number of comparisons this Friday Considerable options have concentrated on expiration, so it remains to be verified whether this recovery in open interest can continue until next week.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew

Volatility

Bitcoin’s short-term volatility has ended its previous continuous downward trend, and a rapid rebound within the week has broken away from the low level of the year. As mentioned in the analysis of the previous statistical cycle, this extreme situation of realized volatility may bring about changes, and this expectation was also fulfilled smoothly in the middle of last week.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew

Bitcoin’s multi-period implied volatility quickly dropped after a short jump at the beginning of last week. However, as the surge in the market this morning came out, the indicator rebounded again. Does it mean the continuity of the market’s short-term rebound is worth worrying? Focus.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew

PCR

In the past week, the Bitcoin trading volume PCR and the open interest PCR have simultaneously declined. The excessive signals provided by the continuous rise in the previous period have been digested by the market as the rebounding market goes out. Judging from the short-term performance of this indicator, the continuity of the short-term rise is doubtful , The market rebound is likely to come to an end soon.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew

Option expiration

This week’s option expiration volume has changed significantly compared with the dull situation of the previous few weeks. On Friday, an option contract with a value of more than 43,300 bitcoins in a single day expired after the “calm” of the past three weeks. , Remember to pay attention to the short-term volatility risks caused by the expiration of options this Friday.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, the articles published on this site only represent the author’s personal views, and have nothing to do with the position of ChainNews. The information, opinions, etc. in the article are for reference only, and are not intended as or regarded as actual investment advice.

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