Retail follow-up institutions are determined to chase more, but the big ones buck the market and sing short in advance | CFTC COT Weekly Bitcoin Holding

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On March 20, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (March 10 to March 16). In the latest statistical cycle, BTC only achieved a small increase of less than $2,000, but the market once set a new record during the cycle. A record high, to a certain extent, continued the upward trend of the past period of time. However, considering that there has been a rapid correction at the end of the latest statistical cycle, whether the logic of adjusting positions of various accounts in the latest statistical cycle has changed as a result, and whether the unilateral sentiment of the market that has been chasing more before will be reversed again. This is the key to this weekly report.

The total number of positions (total open positions) in the latest data has further increased from 8,785 to 9,335. Although the increase is not very impressive, the two consecutive weeks of capital entry still show that the market has reached a record high. Considerable market enthusiasm in the background. At least the first time there was a rapid correction after the market hit a new high, there was no particularly intense panic.

In terms of sub-data, the largest dealers’ long positions have further increased from 395 to 468, which reached a new high in nearly 11 weeks. Short positions have increased from 164 to 203, both long and short (hedged) The position has risen from 41 to 63. Dealer accounts have increased their positions by a considerable amount in the latest statistical cycle. In particular, the performance of long positions hitting a new high since late December last year has consolidated the optimism of large institutions towards the market outlook, and the appropriate increase of short positions is understandable The necessary risk hedging demand does not affect the clear judgment on the continued bullish attitude of dealer accounts.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

The long positions of asset management institutions further increased from 331 to 357, a record high in the past eight weeks. Short positions fell from 619 to 516, which was a four-week low, and two-way positions rose from 15 to 55. Asset management agencies once again carried out a clear net long position adjustment in the latest statistical cycle, continuing the idea of ​​adjusting positions in the previous statistical cycle. Moreover, the “decisiveness” of this net long position adjustment in the latest statistical cycle is stronger than in the previous statistical cycle, and asset management institutions have once again become the leading force of many parties at this stage.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of the leveraged fund account rose from 2055 to 2099, the short position increased from 6,148 to 6,756, and the two-way position rose from 664 to 842. Leveraged funds once again carried out a considerable amount of simultaneous increase in various positions in the latest statistical cycle. The idea of ​​adjusting positions in this period is exactly the same as the previous statistical cycle, and the total open positions in the market have continued to rise during the latest statistical cycle. Mainly “wow to him.” However, it is worth mentioning that in the process of expressing partial optimism for this type of account, the increase in short positions has been significantly higher than that of long positions. This kind of cautious position adjustment operation is worth continuing for a period of time in the future. attention.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of large holdings, long positions dropped from 2,573 to 2,352, a record low in nearly 6 weeks. Short positions dropped from 186 to 139, and two-way positions dropped from 76 to 44. Large accounts are the only type of account that has reduced multiple orders in the latest statistical cycle. This position adjustment is slightly “weird” under the background that the market is still constantly refreshing its historical highs. At the same time, large accounts have also made significant reductions in other accumulated positions during the latest statistical cycle. It can be considered that this type of account has significantly weakened the expectation of further increase after the current high is created. This type of account is ahead of the other few. The class account expressed a bearish attitude.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of retail holdings, long positions rose from 2,635 to 3,055, and short positions fell from 872 to 717. In the latest statistical cycle, retail accounts have undergone a clear-cut net long position adjustment. This is the first time such accounts have undergone a clear one-way position adjustment after a full month. Compared with the two types of accounts of leveraged funds and large accounts, retail investors are more optimistic about the market outlook. This also allows retail investors to once again hand over the “answer sheet” consistent with asset management agencies.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?

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