The atmosphere of chasing after the historical high has changed, and institutional investors are taking the lead in risk control | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

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Affected by the Thanksgiving holiday last week, the latest issue of the CFTC CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (November 18-November 24) was postponed to this Monday (November 30). During the statistical period, BTC once again gained A considerable increase of about US$2,000, and is quickly approaching a historical high. Although BTC did not officially reach a breakthrough from the 2017 high until yesterday, the market has reached more than US$19,000 at the end of this week’s statistical cycle. Under the extremely strong background, the idea of ​​adjusting positions of various accounts is very exciting.

The total number of positions (total open positions) in the latest data has further increased from 11,509 to 12,336. This value has risen for three consecutive weeks. The rapid rise in prices has stimulated the continued increase in market participation. At present, the total market position has been basically It has returned to its high level a month ago, and the growth momentum has continued to accelerate in recent weeks.

In terms of sub-data, large-scale brokers have long positions dropped from 845 to 668, and short positions have dropped from 4 to 0. Although large institutions have emptied their short positions once again, the sharp reduction in long positions has been even greater. Worthy of attention. This type of account has always maintained the idea of ​​overweighting and doing more in the process of rising in the past period of time. However, in the latest statistical cycle, the market has not seen a significant correction in the market. It has carried out an obvious long order to lighten up in advance, showing that large institutions are willing to return to historical high There is insufficient confidence in the market outlook for the BTC near this point to further increase rapidly, and multiple orders will be profitable in advance to reduce holdings for risk control. Considering that BTC has indeed experienced a rapid fall after the latest weekly report statistical cycle, large institutions have a keen sense of market wind.

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| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts rose from 5,305 to 5,441, and the short positions rose sharply from 8,097 to 9,864. The short positions of such accounts reached a record high in the latest statistical cycle. Although leveraged funds continued the idea of ​​simultaneous increase of long and short positions in the previous statistical cycle, the increase in short positions in the latest statistical cycle was significantly greater, although the holdings of CME’s single platform could not reflect the position of such investors. The whole picture, so it is impossible to judge that such accounts are bearish on the market outlook through the historical high of short positions, but this kind of large short order overweight can also be regarded as an early risk control operation under the continuous rise of currency prices.

Two types of institutional accounts, leveraged funds and brokers, have carried out early “contrarian” risk control in the latest statistical cycle. Compared with the persistent pursuit in the past few weeks, market sentiment has undergone subtle changes.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of large holdings, long positions rebounded from 1933 to 2381. The four-week consecutive decline of this value has come to an end, and short positions have fallen sharply from 1,663 to 300. The large accounts have changed their cautious attitude in the previous few weeks. In the latest statistical cycle, they have carried out a very fierce one-sided overweight, and reduced their short positions to a new low level for more than six months. There has been a certain change in the mentality of adjusting positions. With such an intense net long position adjustment near this historical high, the idea of ​​adjusting positions for this type of account is not rational compared to the above two types of institutional investors.

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After the end of the statistical period of the current weekly report, what kind of impact the market’s deep correction will have on the holdings of such accounts will be a highlight of the next weekly report.

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of retail positions, long positions fell slightly from 3110 to 3104, and short positions rose slightly from 697 to 787. The adjustment of retail accounts in the latest statistical cycle is not large, but the more interesting point is that in the small position adjustments, retail accounts and institutions have carried out partial air-conditioning positions in unison, and did not postpone the idea of ​​catching up in the previous statistical cycle. Keep adding more. However, considering that this type of account has been aggressively fighting for the top half a month ago, it is not known whether this kind of position adjustment in the latest statistical cycle is a risk control operation or another counter-trend fight, but at least retail investors rarely interact with institutions. Standing on the “same front.”

| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
| CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What is the value? How to interpret it?