The bearish sentiment continues to ferment, and the short-term characteristics of the contract market become more and more obvious | Crypto Derivatives Weekly

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Extended reading: What is the significance of these data in the weekly derivatives report, and how to interpret it?

Futures (Bitcoin)

The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.

Liquidation Overview

Last week (June 21st to June 27th) Bitcoin market has been volatile, and the actual price fluctuations throughout the week are very limited. The market volatility is for market participants, especially short- and medium-term traders who occupy the main force in derivatives trading. , It will inevitably be greatly affected, but it is also easier to see the subjective sentiment preference of the market, so the content of this week’s report has more reference value than when it went out of unilateral decline in the previous week.

The total amount of liquidation of Bitcoin contracts on the main trading platform in the past week has further increased compared with the previous week, exceeding 2 billion US dollars. Among them, a large-scale centralized liquidation occurred during the period from 20:00-21:59 on June 22 , The total amount of liquidation in just two hours exceeded 226 million US dollars. It is worth mentioning that the market went out of a V-shaped reversal rapid rebound within a few hours after the end of this period, but in the process of rapid rise The market’s liquidation volume has dropped significantly. It can be seen that the impact of sharp drops on market sentiment is still more obvious.

Within two hours of the above-mentioned concentrated liquidation, the total amount of Bybit’s single platform liquidation exceeded US$118 million.

Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew

Trading volume

On June 22nd, Bitcoin quickly rebounded due to a sharp intraday drop and ushered in a peak trading volume of nearly one and a half months. The total daily trading volume of the statistical platform on that day exceeded US$125 billion, but the market trading volume of the next two trading days There was a cliff-like decline, and the trading volume on June 24 was only 63 billion US dollars, which means that the futures market is gradually returning to the short-term opportunity of chasing short-term violent fluctuations. Although the market’s popularity picked up slightly in the following trading days, it only returned to about 70 billion U.S. dollars, which is still a big gap from the peak in the week.

Binance’s “hegemony” position in trading volume is still stable. Whether it is at the peak or valley stage of trading volume, the trading volume of Binance platform has been stable at the level of half of the platform’s total trading volume in 11 statistics.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin futures trading volume, source: Skew

Open interest

In terms of holdings, the data of Bitcoin futures holdings remained in a relatively sluggish situation after a sharp drop last week. The data rose first and then fell during the week, and the trading activity in the market was the lowest on June 24. The total amount of holdings has dropped significantly, from US$11.6 billion to US$10.3 billion. However, after the continuous rebound in the two trading days after last week, the total holdings have returned to the level of US$11.1 billion. Therefore, the market also There were no particularly obvious signs of cold. Under the relatively stable performance of the market, positions have also remained relatively stable.

skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest (1).png Bitcoin futures open interest, source: Skew

Basis

Compared with the basis data of the previous weekly report, the proportion of “green” basis data in this period has increased significantly. The proliferation of this “reverse market” signal from the medium and long-term to the short-term shows that the market is empty. The spread of sentiment and the weak shocks of the market have contributed to the fermentation of bearish sentiment.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin futures contract basis, source: Skew

Futures (Ethereum)

The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, CoinFlex, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.

Liquidation Overview

Last week (June 21 to June 27) Ethereum also fell first and then rebounded, but the rebound was significantly less powerful than Bitcoin. In contrast, Ethereum’s disk performance was significantly weaker.

The total liquidation of the Ethereum contract in the past week reached 708 million US dollars, and the time point of the peak of liquidation was exactly the same as that of Bitcoin. From 20:00-21:59 on June 22, the total amount of Ethereum liquidation reached 87 million U.S. dollars, which also accounted for more than one-tenth of the entire week’s data. Judging from the data of a single platform, OKEx still occupies a relatively obvious “advantage” position in the proportion of Ethereum contract liquidation.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures liquidation data statistics, source: Skew

Trading volume

The trading volume of Ethereum contracts saw a particularly large increase last Monday. The trading volume of the day rose from 28 billion US dollars to 53 billion US dollars. However, this high fever came to an end in the first two trading days of last week. After cooling down quickly, the trading volume of Ethereum in the next few trading days of last week basically returned to the average level of the previous week. Among them, the daily trading volume on June 24 also hit a recent low of $18 billion, which was a decrease from the peak of the week. Reach 66%. This kind of performance is enough to show that in the absence of sharp fluctuations, the popularity of Ethereum’s market participation is quickly “saying goodbye to the bull market.”

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew

Open interest

The situation of cold holdings during the week is also obvious. The holdings basically maintained a unilateral downward trend throughout the week. From 5 billion US dollars at the beginning of the week, they fell all the way to 4.4 billion US dollars. The valley value of the week reached 4.2 billion US dollars, and it was refreshed again. Based on the low level in the past five months since the beginning of February this year, and the performance of the previous period’s data, it can be considered that this is the market’s lagging response to the previous period’s sharp drop.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures open interest, source: Skew

Basis

The basis of the Ethereum contract is basically the same as that in the previous weekly report. The market’s short-term bearish attitude has not been effectively alleviated, and the market has not been able to follow the rapid rebound of Bitcoin after the sharp fall to recover lost ground and is constantly being short. Emotions add fire, and the market bearish atmosphere continues to ferment.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Ethereum futures contract basis, source: Skew

Options (Bitcoin)

The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Binance, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx.

Trading volume

The popularity of Bitcoin options trading has remained basically stable. Last week, compared with the previous statistical cycle, it has risen slightly, reaching the US$4 billion mark. Deribit’s single platform still contributes more than 90% of the trading volume. At present, other major platforms are in option The product has not shown sufficient competitiveness, and the trading volume of the options market has not escaped the relatively sluggish situation of the past period of time.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin options trading volume, source: Skew

Open interest

The downward trend of Bitcoin options holdings in the previous two weeks continued. On June 25th, the quarterly contract expiration day, the market holdings dropped sharply from over 7 billion U.S. dollars to less than 5 billion U.S. dollars. The last time a similar value appeared has to be traced back. As of December last year, the popularity of Bitcoin options market participation has officially dropped to the “freezing point” since the beginning of this year.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin options holdings, source: Skew

Volatility

Bitcoin’s monthly and 10-day realized volatility has rebounded last week, but the trend of the data also expresses the recent “boring” market situation. Although there has been no shortage of recent market fluctuations, the data has already expressed The dull status of the market.

skew_btcusd_realized_volatility (1).png Bitcoin has achieved volatility, source: Skew

In terms of implied volatility, the weekly data once soared to a new high in nearly a month on the day of the sharp drop, and then quickly fell back, indicating that the market has a strong “digestibility” of potential extreme market conditions. Stimulating a substantial increase in implied volatility data, the market’s relative calm is expected to continue in the short term. Considering that the market will welcome the June K closing line within this week, this special node on the technical graph is expected to also suppress the market It’s not surprising that the implied volatility is flat.

skew_btc_atm_implied_volatility (1).png Bitcoin implied volatility, source: Skew

PCR

In the past week, the Bitcoin trading volume PCR rebounded briefly and then fell rapidly. The data showed a clearer short-term bearish attitude. The volatility of open interest PCR is also continuing to maintain. It can be considered that open interest PCR is a very important medium and long-term bearish basis.

skew_btc_putcall_ratios (1).png Bitcoin PCR, source: Skew

Option expiration

This week’s option expiration volume has dropped significantly compared to last week. After all, the market will usher in a relatively “easy” phase after the important node of the quarterly contract expiration. There are only about 12,500 on Friday. Bitcoin options expire, this value is only less than one-sixth of the value that expired last Friday, and the impact on the market is minimal.

| Crypto Derivatives Weekly Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew

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