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NFT has a certain dependence on the development of other ecosystems such as wallets, and the problem of how to expand the scale of users may be more difficult to solve than DeFi.
Original title: “Looking back three years of data, NFT is still a “virtual fire””
Written by: Carol
Benefiting from the incentive effect of Yield Farming, the DeFi field has experienced rapid growth in the past three months. But at the same time, the market has never stopped worrying about the unsustainability of DeFi’s prosperity and development. As a result, the NFT (Non-Fungible Token), once known for its crypto cats, has become the next promising investment target. .
However, NFT is still in the early stage, facing challenges such as fewer investment targets, fewer users, small market, lack of liquidity, and difficulty in development. Although NFT is actively embracing DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization), trying to open up new market space, the innovative model remains to be tested.
Can NFT be the next frontier? PAData will use the historical transaction data of NFT to show the current market status of NFT and the development potential of NFT in different fields.
The average daily transaction volume this year is about 504ETH, and the average unit price is 0.18ETH
PAData converted the daily transaction volume of the NFT market calculated by NonFungible according to the ETH price calculated by CoinMetrics. Statistics found that since the beginning of this year, the average daily transaction volume of the NFT market is about 504 ETH. In terms of trends, since the beginning of this year, the single-day trading volume of the NFT market has shown a moderate upward trend.
On March 31 this year, it set the highest single-day transaction volume of the year. According to the conversion, it was about 3838 ETH. Secondly, the single-day transaction volume on February 11th was also higher, reaching 2048 ETH. In addition, the market transactions in the rest of the year were relatively stable, mostly concentrated in the range of 300 ETH to 600 ETH. From the perspective of market growth, from mid-September to late September this year, the daily trading volume showed a clear pattern of heavy volume. It rose from 146 ETH on September 17 to 1451 ETH on September 28, an increase of nearly 10 times. Although the daily trading volume dropped rapidly, it was still higher than this year’s 75% quantile line (597 ETH), and it was in an active market.
However, from the perspective of NFT market transactions since 2017, the growth trend of currency-based transaction scale is very slow. Even after the NFT concept was hyped in the second half of this year, the overall currency-based transaction scale did not show a significant expansion.
On the contrary, during the period from December 2018 to January 2019 and from December 2017 to January 2018, the market transaction scale of NFT increased significantly. During the period, the daily transaction volume was more than 3000 ETH. On December 21, 2018 It also set a peak transaction volume, about 23,700 ETH. However, whether the change of NFT transaction volume has a certain time period requires a longer period of observation.
Judging from the average transaction price of this year’s NFT, the average currency standard price of a single NFT after conversion is about 0.18 ETH, of which the highest daily average price reached 0.77 ETH, and from the trend point of view, the average transaction price of this year’s NFT is more obvious However, the recent average price has fallen back to near the annual average.
Judging from the average daily transaction price of NFTs since 2017, this year’s daily transaction price is basically higher than the historical average price of 0.15 ETH, but it is lower than the transaction price in the third quarter of 2017 and the period from December 2018 to January 2019. Look, it’s still not high. If you consider the trend of average transaction prices, the average daily transaction price of NFTs has actually been stable and slightly decreased since July 2017.
The growth rate of NFT currency standard transaction volume is lower than the previous two years, and the number of transactions has declined
Judging from the average daily trading volume and average daily trading price of the currency standard, it seems that NFT is not as prosperous as the market feels. So how has the NFT market performed this year?
PAData compared the average daily transaction volume of the NFT currency standard and the US dollar standard in the past three years, as well as the increase of the average daily single NFT transaction price of the currency standard and the average daily single NFT transaction price of the legal currency standard.
According to statistics, as of October 28 this year, the average daily transaction volume of the currency standard in the NFT market this year has increased by about 36.96%, but the dollar-denominated daily transaction volume has increased by 309.82%. This is mainly related to the sharp increase in the price of ETH this year. According to CoinMetrics’ statistics, this year ETH has risen from US$129.96 at the beginning of the year to US$386.78 on October 29, an increase of 197.61%. Therefore, judging from the increase in the average daily transaction volume of the NFT dollar standard over the years, the NFT market is indeed prosperous this year, but if you look at the daily transaction volume increase of the currency standard, this year’s increase is less than the previous two years.
From the perspective of asset prices, this year’s currency-based NFT’s average daily average transaction price of a single asset increased by about 233.33%, which was higher than last year’s 16.67%, but still lower than 2018’s 500%. But if you look at the average daily transaction price of a single asset denominated in US dollars, the situation is very different. According to statistics, the average dollar transaction price of a single NFT in a single day increased by about 942.71% this year, compared with only 9.76% last year, and even -10.52% in 2018.
Due to the large volatility of the encrypted asset market, it is necessary to consider the premium impact of ETH when discussing whether the NFT market is prosperous. In terms of the current market situation this year, under the currency standard measurement, the growth of the overall NFT market is relatively limited, but asset prices have increased to a certain extent.
If the price is aside, from the perspective of transaction volume alone, the overall daily transaction volume of NFT this year has shown a clear downward trend, with the annual average daily transaction volume being approximately 3,921.
From the distribution point of view during the year, the first quarter of this year was a time period when NFT transactions were relatively active, with an average daily transaction volume of approximately 6,958, much higher than the annual average. Although the daily trading volume of NFT has rebounded since mid-September, it is still basically below the annual average.
The number of NFT transactions is small or is affected by the small number of tradable assets. In the “NFT C debut, not only encrypted art” event co-sponsored by PANews and Cocos-BCX, Cao Yin, managing director of the Digital Renaissance Foundation Mentioned, “The current NFT investment target is very scarce, it has not yet found a real rigid demand.” Vechain community operations director Noah Huo said, “In terms of development difficulty, common Ethereum protocols include ERC-721, ERC-1155 These standard protocols have relatively high development and access difficulties.” These may be factors restricting the further development of NFT.
Art and virtual space NFTs have higher transaction prices
In addition to NFT exchanges, what other platforms have relatively large trading volumes on the market? According to NonFungible’s transaction value ranking in the last week, the game Axie Infinity has the largest transaction volume, about 651,300 US dollars, but it is only about 1/16,659 of the daily ETH transaction volume (CoinGecko’s daily ETH transaction value was 10.849 billion on November 2 US dollars). Secondly, in the past week, there were no platforms with a million-level transaction volume, and there were only three platforms with a 100,000-level transaction volume, namely, the art platform SuperRare, the sports platform Sorare, and the virtual space platform Decentraland. The transaction amount reached 261,300 US dollars, 176,400 US dollars and 119,900 US dollars. From the overall situation, there are only 19 weekly transaction amounts reaching the 10,000-level level.
In terms of categories, among the 20 NFT platforms with a large transaction volume in the last week, 5 are art, 4 are games and 4 are virtual space. These 3 types of NFTs together account for approximately 65%. Moreover, the average transaction price of different types of NFTs also has obvious differences.
The average price of NFT transactions for art and virtual space is relatively high. JOYWORLD, the art platform with the highest average transaction price, is about 6.72 ETH, which is equivalent to about $2688, which is equivalent to the average price of ETH in the last week of 400 US dollars. Secondly, the NFT prices on Decentraland and Somnium Space in the virtual space category, and Async Art in the art category are also relatively high, with average prices exceeding 3.5 ETH, which is equivalent to more than 1,400 US dollars.
The transaction price of game NFTs is not high, with the largest transaction volume Axie Infinity, the average transaction price of a single NFT is only 0.18 ETH, which is equivalent to 72 US dollars.
From the perspective of the number of assets and the number of asset owners (deemed as users), game NFTs have shown a good momentum again. The largest number of NFT assets is the game platform Gods Unchained, with a total of 6,947,600 and the number of users has reached 14,600. Axie Infinity and Mega Crypto Polls perform well on these two basic indicators, especially the number of users. Reached 13,000 and 24,800 respectively. In addition, the collection of Crypto Kitties is still the platform with the most users, with a total of 89,700, and the number of NFTs on it is also high, reaching 1,979,300.
On the other hand, art NFTs with relatively high transaction amount and average transaction price have a small number of tradable assets and users. For example, SuperRare has only 14,300 NFTs and only 1,900 users.
The differentiated performance of different types of NFTs in the four dimensions of total transaction amount, average transaction price, number of assets, and number of users is essentially related to the investment logic of different types of NFTs. The cost and supply of NFTs may affect their transaction prices. It is also worth noting that from the 20 platforms with large transaction volume, there is no correlation between the number of assets and the number of users.
From the perspective of the per capita ownership of various NFTs, the per capita asset ownership in the game Gods Unchained reached 475.9, which is much higher than other platforms. When this extreme value is not considered, the per capita asset ownership of sports NFTs is the highest, about 27.14 per person, followed by the collection and virtual space NFTs, with per capita asset ownership of approximately 16.55 per person and 15.63 respectively. Per person. The per capita asset ownership of art NFTs is only 6.74 per person.
Per capita asset ownership is a reference indicator of market size and market concentration. Per capita asset ownership is too high or too low or neither is a healthy ecological form. Since NFT transactions and storage require a wallet, the private key, mnemonic phrase, account interaction, etc. in the wallet have high technical barriers for most ordinary people. NFT has a certain dependence on the development of other ecosystems such as wallets, and belongs to a relatively high-end application form. Therefore, the problem of how to expand the user scale may be more difficult to solve than other ecosystems such as DeFi.
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