The tragedy of the empty trampler, Bitcoin does not speak martial arts

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“It’s eighteen thousand, and the groups are still lifeless, and there are no red envelopes.” Investor Ma Yue said.

While Bitcoin has continuously broken new highs since 2018, the Chinese crypto community is still deserted.

Compared with the spectacular scenes of “all people calling for orders” in 2018 and “long-air battles” in 2019, everyone’s interest in this round of bull market in 2020 has been much bleak.

The celebration came from the Western Hemisphere. In the past third quarter, the amount of funds flowing into the Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) reached 719 million US dollars. It is they who have “founded the bottom” and held the “selling pressure” for the rise of Bitcoin. So this round of bull market is also called “gray bull” or “institution bull”.

Based on the experience of previous years, every round of Bitcoin’s rise, new millionaires and multimillionaires will be born. This year is slightly different. In previous years, there was less noise and the screenshots of the order were gone. Everyone looked at each other: Who is making money?

The bull market is coming, I’m out

“It’s miserable and deserted. This year’s bull market is very different from previous years. There are no red envelopes, no delusions to get rich, no downloading the car home, no calling friends and friends to speculate coins, and no one coin. A tender model…”

Just as Bitcoin’s momentum has broken through, within a month, it has broken through 12,000, 14,000, and 16,000 U.S. dollars one after another, reaching a new high since January 2018, but the Chinese currency speculation community is still “quietly”.

“I don’t feel the atmosphere at all, and I didn’t even give out red envelopes.” Investor Ma Yue said that she had no face to tell her friends that she was speculating coins. “A few days ago, my friend saw Bitcoin breaking through $15,000 and asked me if I sent it. I don’t want to reply directly.”

“This is the first time in history that Bitcoin is at this price and the market is still discussing whether it is a bull market.” Crypto blogger “Blockchain William” said.

“Altcoins can get rich. This is an illusion of many investors.” Ma Yue said that most people enter the circle because of the rise of Bitcoin, but they often don’t like buying Bitcoin and are keen on all kinds of altcoins.

Altcoin lovers have their own logical system: only altcoins can change the fate of ordinary people.

In the bull market at the end of 2017, it was the various IC0 projects that created the myth of wealth. Hundreds of coins and thousands of coins have emerged one after another.

Except for the old people in the currency circle who entered the circle early to make their fortunes with bitcoin, almost all the newcomers in the currency circle made their fortunes with altcoins, such as Justin Sun, and early participants of NEO and Quantum Chain.

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But this impression is being reversed by reality. In this round of bull market, Bitcoin has broken through and rose in succession, while other “altcoins” have not shown obvious linkage effects. Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, only LTC gained 59% in one month, which is close to the 62% increase in Bitcoin.

This round of bull market is obviously not the same as the “bull market” expected by most Chinese. Someone missed it, and somebody got down…

“A lot of people sold Bitcoin through DeFi mining before, and some people have gone short-selling.” Ma Yue said.

The old leek in the currency circle that has undergone several bull-bear exchanges has long been a buddha.

Why is it not me who makes money

“Having a halving knows a big increase, and waiting for a big increase, he really rose.”

Bitcoin miner Zhang Fei said with emotion that he knows the big rise, but few real studs. “There are more people who say goodbye.” Old Leek didn’t think it would be so fast, and most of them got out of the car early. “

According to observations, there are two main reasons for Chinese people to go empty: buying altcoins and speculating in contracts.

“I started last year, and I will put out a part of my salary every month and make a fixed investment of 0.1 BTC.” Ma Zhuang told reporters that he hoarded a BTC in the middle of the year and transferred it to his wallet. However, the arrival of the DeFi craze completely disrupted his plans.

“It was crazy at that time. The coins mined by DeFi are skyrocketing, and Bitcoin is not moving. The group of friends are broadcasting their profits every day, and the most one day can be doubled. Watching them make money, more than I lose money. Uncomfortable.”

Finally, Ma Zhuang failed to restrain himself, transferred Bitcoin to the exchange, and bought various DeFi coins, salmon, pearls…

Soon after, DeFi tokens plunged. When Ma Zhuang cleared, Bitcoin’s standard had fallen by 60%.

“I used to think that hoarding coins was a very simple thing, but now I find that it’s even more difficult, and it’s a test of human nature.” There are not a few people like Ma Zhuang in the circle. “Holding a bunch of altcoins means that there is no Bitcoin. “.

Worse than Ma Zhuang is the air force playing the contract. When Bitcoin rose higher and higher, according to the experience of the past two years, they believed in a correction, so they opened a short at the $12,000 and $15,000 points.

No one expected that Bitcoin’s k-line has been breaking through $18,000, and there is no sign of a correction.

“Some friends did not listen to persuasion, and (speculation) leverage went bankrupt.” Zhang Fei said that many miners around who speculated on contract futures had no good end.

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Who can hold the coin in the end?

“The key is not bad money.” Zhang Fei concluded.

Wang Yang, the founder of Taobi, summed up his own experience of holding coins: “If there is a rise, there will be mining machines and coins, and assets will increase. If there are cash, you can directly collect the coins and receive the machine. If you don’t rise or fall, you will carry on the mining. I’m flat, anyway, I’m ready.”

“No leverage, no contract, only cold wallet for hoarding coins.” Wang Yang said, “Don’t be afraid, just come here. The ups and downs are flat.”

When DeFi was hot, Zhang Fei also invested in some platform machine gun pools, “We loaned Bitcoin to the platform, fixed interest, and settled every week, so the coins were not sold.”

That is to say, only large accounts with sufficient funds can resist the risks of “flattening” while not missing hot spots.

Zhang Fei also said that the only people who saw stepping out of the air may also be “survivor deviation”. Some of the miners I know don’t like to come out and yell, “A big boss is ruthless, holding a thousand (BTC) and not moving. “.

When Ma Zhuang joined the DeFi wave, institutional investors from Wall Street quietly increased their positions in Bitcoin and so on.

“If the driving force in 2017 comes from retail investors in the market, then the rise in the second half of this year will be driven by institutional funds.” CCTV Finance reported on the 18th.

Bitcoin is occupied by Wall Street

If the previous bull market was mainly the carnival of retail investors and the big money circle, then this time it was dominated by institutional funds. Therefore, it is reasonable for retail investors to take the air.

Large capitalists from Europe and the United States have long coveted Bitcoin.

On November 18th, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, Mexico’s third-richest and the founder of retail giant Grupo Salinas, tweeted to recommend Bitcoin-related books “The Bitcoin Standard” to netizens, and said that Bitcoin can protect citizens’ property from government confiscation , I have invested 10% of current assets in Bitcoin.

In addition, some cryptocurrency project parties are also big Bitcoin players. For example, Block.One, the organization behind EOS, has publicly disclosed that it holds 140,000 Bitcoins and the Tezos Foundation holds 24,000 Bitcoins.

According to statistics, among the large Bitcoin holders, in addition to funds such as Grayscale and Coinshares, there are also Nasdaq-listed MicroStrategy. On August 11, MicroStrategy announced that it had purchased 21,454 Bitcoins (valued at more than 2.5 Billion dollars) as part of its asset allocation.

According to the latest data from Bitcoin Treasuries, 15 listed companies, 3 private companies, and 5 ETF-type capital have invested in Bitcoin. These institutions hold a total of 84229 bitcoins, accounting for 4.01% of the total.

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Among these big Bitcoin users, the most typical one is grayscale.

As of press time, Grayscale Investment holds a total of 513392 BTC, accounting for 2.44% of the total.

Since July this year, the cryptocurrency trust fund Grayscale’s investment in Bitcoin has increased unabated. The amount of funds flowing into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) in the third quarter reached 719 million US dollars, with an average weekly inflow of 5530 Ten thousand U.S. dollars.

Macro investor Dan Tapiero said that the bitcoin purchased by Grayscale Trust accounted for the share of bitcoin generated by mining, which increased from 27% in Q1 to 77% in Q3. In other words, they added demand to the market and held the “selling pressure”.

According to the data disclosed by Grayscale in the third quarter of this year, the main purchasers of Grayscale’s products are institutional investors (81%), followed by qualified investors and family offices (8% each), including Rothschild family investment company.

Therefore, this round of Bitcoin bull market is also called “gray bull” or “institution bull”, and the upward force is mainly driven by the power of Wall Street capital.

According to the latest data from Glassnode, the number of Bitcoin whales (addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins) has always been at a historical high in the near future. In the past six months, the number of addresses holding 1,000 Bitcoins has increased by 88. The number of addresses with 10,000 bitcoins has increased by 6.

As institutions run into the market, how many opportunities are left for retail investors?

Six months after the third Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin finally began its path of substantial growth, and even Bloomberg analysts said that Bitcoin is expected to reach $100,000 in 2025.

How many people can still afford 100,000 Bitcoins? As the price of Bitcoin rises, Bitcoin is getting farther and farther away from ordinary people, and farther and farther away from the Chinese.

Bitcoin, once placed in hopes of a class jump, may have completed its due task. Large investors like Zhang Fei and Wang Yang who have completed the original accumulation not only have the financial strength to resist risks, but also hold game chips that do not miss any hot spots, while retail investors like Ma Zhuang are more educated by the market. At the same time, Wall Street capitalists are eyeing and running into the arena.

While Bitcoin was steadily rising, Ma Yue expressed concern about the rise of Bitcoin: “Are you sure you are not afraid of this acceleration?”

Ma Yue said that starting from the end of October 2017, Bitcoin has skyrocketed for 5 consecutive weeks, just like this year. “If history is always surprisingly similar, then Bitcoin should fall at 20,000.”

(Respect the opinions of interviewees, Ma Yue, Zhang Fei, and Ma Zhuang are all pseudonyms)