Three years and three years of unwinding laws, logical reasoning of BTC highs

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I turned this page of history and saw the secret of periodic fluctuations, as if holding the pulse of time, the lifeblood of wealth.

This article can be used as a simple summary of past history and an estimate of future trends. This article will explain the periodicity of Bitcoin and the highs of this bull market.

Unwinding cycle: three years and three years

At the end of 2013, there was a post. It was too old and can’t be found now. It was said that a friend did not buy a house in his hometown, but bought Bitcoin with 200,000 yuan in his hand. The price of Bitcoin at that time was $1,000. I was stuck on the top of the mountain and blew the wind for three years. I heard that at the end of 2016, I finally got rid of it, and finally paid back. Later, it took a year for Bitcoin to rise from $1,000 to around $19,500. That is more than 19 times.

I don’t know if this friend has persisted for six months and one year after three years and finally got the benefits. What I know is that there are friends who have sold more than $17,000 at the end of 2017-early 2018.

Then, three years of wind blowing on the top of the mountain, by the end of 2020 (November-December), Bitcoin once again returned to more than 18,000. It’s been cold after three years of blowing, and what’s even colder is the loss caused by continuous operation after failing to hold it. There used to be a name in the currency circle as “ten thousand yuan Hou”. Now a hundred coins can be sealed, 120,000-130,000 RMB. The price of 100BTC is 12 million+, which is not a small amount for most people.

Here is an interesting thing: Bitcoin’s halving cycle is 4 years, and the unwinding cycle after hanging on the top of the last bull market is three years. From the end of 2013 to the end of 2016, from the end of 2017 to the end of 2020 (now), three years and three years, Bitcoin is like an undercover in the financial market, and it will kill every three years.

However, it is true that BTC has not become a currency. It has indeed been ten years since. The price of the currency is worthy of you, and the vision will be released later. This is already the biggest benefit of Bitcoin. The currency price and vision can be reversed in other currencies.

So, why do we always remember in our minds that Bitcoin’s halving cycle is four years, and the time to hang on the top of the mountain is three years? Because every time the mountain top is unblocked, there will be a year for BTC to have a gorgeous show. The last time was 2017, which is after the end of 2016, and this time is 2021, which is 2022, which is next year. .

The last time for the halving was July 2016, and this time it was May 2020. Will there be a time difference of two or three months before and after? Time has passed, chasing the minutiae in a seemingly sophisticated (in fact, general) model. Not desirable.

Let me just talk about a time period. The high point of this bull market will appear in 2021, probably in the second half of the year, but not at the end of the year. That is to say, June to October next year is the month of focus. Of course, if many people think so, the market is likely to be over in the first half of the bull market, because when most retail investors hold a unified view, the direction of the market will give you a different color. There will always be both long and short in the market, otherwise the transaction will not be completed and there will be no market.

The bull market high speculation

The specific time will change for a few months, so where is the high point of the currency price in this bull market?

The most well-known views are expressed by some institutions implying or writing articles. For example, 400,000 and 500,000 U.S. dollars, a lot of content was demonstrated in the middle, but it seems that a small model reasoning knows, that is, the last time on January 1, 2017 (the last caveman settlement day), Bitcoin 1000 U.S. dollars, and then the highest point is close to 20,000 U.S. dollars, which is 20 times. This time the settlement day will be December 1, 2020 (around), and then it will increase by 20 times to 400,000 U.S. dollars. This is too forehead.

There is no inevitable connection between how many times it has risen last time and how many times it has risen this time. The bigger the market value, the harder it is to pull. The reason is simple. Big cars accelerate slowly, but small cars accelerate faster.

On January 1, 2017, the market value of Bitcoin was 16 billion US dollars, and on December 1, 2020, the market value of Bitcoin was more than 360 billion US dollars. The market value difference is 22 times, even if large funds enter the market, it is difficult to increase to 20 times.

Therefore, there is an estimation model like this, what situation will make Bitcoin completely out of the circle crazy. First of all, every time Bitcoin rises to more than 10,000, the media will go crazy. For example, Bitcoin breaks through 30,000 U.S. dollars, and then 40,000 or 50,000 U.S. dollars. Each time this node will excite various mainstream and non-mainstream media. Found the topic. The vocabulary of scams, revolutions, etc. will be rampant again.

Then, there is a mark, what mark? Bitcoin’s market value exceeds one trillion US dollars and two trillion US dollars. This is where the craze is.

Recall that many people have estimated that the first company in human history to exceed a trillion dollars, Apple, Saudi Aramco, etc. have broken through, (Saudi Aramco has broken through a trillion when it went public), and the world’s largest listed company with market capitalization in 2020 has broken through 2 trillion.

Therefore, the first step of Bitcoin’s hurdle is in trillions of dollars, that is, 1 trillion divided by 360 billion, which is 2.8 times. The current currency price is 19,000 dollars, 19,000*2.8 times is about 53,000 dollars, and then the next Kaner has a market value of 2 trillion US dollars, which is doubled on this basis. Bitcoin breaks through 100,000 US dollars, which is not only the market value threshold, but also the currency price threshold of 100,000 US dollars denominated in dollars.

It is not easy for the bull market to reach the first threshold of 50,000 U.S. dollars. The second threshold can come slowly in the future, and then Bitcoin really becomes an economy, equivalent to a super large company. Of course, Bitcoin is not a stock, but not many people use the M0, M1, and M2 models of currency to talk about this investment target. The word “market value” itself is the market value of listed companies. Therefore, most people’s ideas and emotions will affect the market. This is also my opinion that the market value of Bitcoin is the first one, and the market value of 2 trillion is the second one.

And I don’t believe it, this time it directly reached the market value of 2 trillion, and even only touched the first hurdle (market value of trillions of dollars), so the high point of the bitcoin price in this bull market is 40,000 to 60,000 US dollars.