Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

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On April 3, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (March 24 to March 30). During the latest statistical cycle, BTC stopped falling and rebounded, and achieved a price increase of about $4,000 within the week. Re-approaching the 60000 integer mark, ending the downward momentum in the past two statistical periods and returning to the upward trend.

The total number of positions (the total number of open positions) in the latest period of data fell from 9,897 to 9,322. This value has not continued to rise in the previous three weeks. Under the background that the market has come out of a rebound performance, the market position has dropped significantly. This slightly “abnormal” position adjustment performance can be understood as the return of cautious sentiment in the market in the short term, or the market participants’ response to the recent A delayed response to a retracement. If it is the former, as long as there is no sharp price correction in the next statistical period, then this kind of cautious position adjustment idea should be used, and if it is the latter case, then as the market resumes its upward trend, the next statistical There will be a significant increase in positions in the cycle with a high probability. Therefore, the next weekly report will be a key reference for understanding this seemingly reverse position adjustment behavior.

In terms of sub-data, the largest dealer’s long positions have fallen from 502 to 493. This value has ended its four consecutive rises in the past month. Short positions have rebounded from 132 to 243. It reached a new high in the past 5 weeks, and its long and short two-way (hedged) positions fell from 181 contracts to 154 contracts, and dropped from a historical high. The dealer account has a clear net air-conditioning warehouse in the latest statistical period, which is the first time this type of account has a net air-conditioning warehouse in the past few weeks. When the market is out of a rebound, this type of account has not insisted on the attitude of singing more in the past few weeks. This change is more intriguing and makes the prospect of this short-term rebound somewhat “worrisome.”

Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

Asset management institutions’ long positions rose slightly from 358 to 354, and fell from a nearly 9-week high. Short positions rebounded from 463 to 534, and two-way positions fell from 120 to 105. Asset management agencies also carried out clear net air-conditioning warehouses in the latest statistical cycle, which means that the two largest institutional accounts have both carried out partial air-conditioning warehouses under the background of the rebound in the market. The results of this position adjustment , Whether it is for risk control or early profit reduction or other purposes, it will inevitably have a certain negative impact on the short-term rebound momentum, and investors should also pay attention to risk control.

Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In the latest statistical period, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts fell from 2,606 to 2,335, the short positions simultaneously dropped from 7,198 to 7,144, and the two-way holdings fell from 623 to 420, a record low in nearly 10 weeks. Leveraged funds have carried out the long-lost simultaneous reduction of long and short two-way positions in the latest statistical cycle. The continued increase in positions in the past month or so has come to an end. This type of account has also expressed a bearish attitude through lightening. It is worth mentioning that this type of account has significantly reduced holdings of multiple orders in this statistical period just past. It can be considered that leveraged funds will stand with two types of large institutions that have performed net air-conditioning in this statistical period. In the united front.

Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of large holdings, long positions rose from 2,608 to 2,992, which continued to hit a new high for nearly five weeks. Short positions fell from 315 to 173, and two-way positions fell from 71 to 0. Large accounts have undergone a clear-cut net long position adjustment in the latest statistical cycle. This is also the only type of account that has performed a net long position adjustment in response to the BTC market trend in the statistical cycle. It is similar to the above-mentioned types of institutional investors. The cautious attitude is quite the opposite, and the idea of ​​adjusting positions of large households seems to be full of confidence in the prospect of further rise in the market outlook.

Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

In terms of retail positions, long positions fell from 2,828 to 2,596, and short positions fell from 794 to 676. In the latest statistical cycle, retail accounts were also “uncharacteristically” instead of chasing the market trend and increasing their holdings. Instead, they cautiously carried out a simultaneous reduction of long and short holdings. This can be understood as taking the recent rebound in the market as a take-profit or wind An important opportunity to control lighten up. What is more interesting is that this judgment made by retail investors coincides with large institutions. In the latest statistical cycle, large accounts have become a “minority” in the market.

Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report
Unsustainable rebound? Institutions and retail investors unanimously abandon longs and shorts against the trend | CFTC COT Bitcoin Holding Weekly Report

Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?

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