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The survey shows that Bitcoin has two obvious development factors: as a whole, more and more people are beginning to understand it; from the perspective of age distribution, young people are more inclined to buy and use Bitcoin.
Written by: Blockchain Capital
Translation: Lu Jiangfei
Every 18 months, Blockchain Capital will commission Harris Harris to conduct an online survey of more than 2,000 American adults across the United States, aiming to understand whether ordinary Americans have made progress in the popularization of cryptocurrency.
In the fall of 2017, Blockchain Capital collaborated with The Harris Poll to launch this survey for the first time, and then conducted the second survey in the spring of 2019. The results of the last survey can be viewed here . The latest survey has been completed from October 7 to 9, 2020. This article will analyze the results of this survey in detail.
Of course, there are many other service providers in the market that conduct various cryptocurrency-related investigations, but Blockchain Capital’s investigation results are different from them, mainly in the following two aspects:
- The comparison is more meaningful: Blockchain Capital has conducted the same survey for three consecutive years, so the survey conclusions are more meaningful. Although we will add some new questions in each survey, the stock issues remain unchanged;
- Use a neutral third party for research: All surveys are conducted by Harris Poll. If Blockchain Capital conducts its own surveys, the results will naturally be biased towards a cryptocurrency-friendly audience.
Cryptocurrency adoption: More and more people are aware of Bitcoin and are quickly accepting it
This survey aims to assess the general population’s knowledge, familiarity, perception, belief, relative preference, and purchase tendency of Bitcoin. We can gain insights into the popularization and application of cryptocurrency in this survey project. The following figure shows a “cryptocurrency adoption progress”:
As shown in the figure below, we can divide the progress of cryptocurrency adoption into three main stages:
- Learning phase;
- Affirmative stage
- Adoption stage.
It is worth noting that from the fall of 2017 to the spring of 2019, the “learning stage” saw the strongest growth. However, in the latest survey process, it was found that the “affirmation stage” had achieved the greatest increase. There is no doubt that more and more people are already aware of Bitcoin and are quickly accepting this emerging thing.
If you are short on time and don’t want to read this article carefully, then the following figure shows some key points:
Next, let us study the “progress of cryptocurrency adoption” according to the above three different stages.
“Learning stage”: knowing, familiarizing, perceiving
Like most indicators in the “learning stage”, in this recent survey, we can see that more and more people have begun to understand cryptocurrency. 90% of the survey respondents said they have heard of Bitcoin, so the “knowledge” indicator can be said It is relatively saturated, and this indicator is the only problem in this survey that does not have a serious age bias-regardless of age, most Americans have heard of Bitcoin.
Similar to the “cognitive” indicator, we have observed that the general population’s “familiarity” with Bitcoin has increased, but the overall trend is stable. The proportion of people who are “at least a little familiar” with Bitcoin has increased from the spring of 2019. 43% of the total increase to 45% in the fall of 2020. In the latest survey in 2020, this indicator has a certain age bias, among which:
- 60% of 18-34 year-olds say they are “at least somewhat familiar” with Bitcoin;
- Only 24% of people over 65 said they were “at least somewhat familiar” with Bitcoin.
In assessing that “strongly” or “somewhat” agrees with “Bitcoin is an active innovation in financial technology”, the percentage of survey results that agree with this view has also increased by 2 basis points-from 43% in the spring of 2019 to the fall of 2020 Of 45%. In the latest survey in 2020, this indicator has a certain age bias, among which young people are still the most inclined to be optimistic about Bitcoin. Specifically:
- 60% of 18-34 year-olds “strongly” or “somewhat” agree that “Bitcoin is an active innovation in financial technology”, an increase of 12 percentage points from the fall of 2017);
- 58% of the 35-44 year-olds “strongly” or “somewhat” agree that “Bitcoin is an active innovation in financial technology”;
- Only 33% of people over 45 “strongly” or “somewhat” agree that “Bitcoin is an active innovation in financial technology.”
“Affirmation stage”: Affirmation, relative preference ratio and buying tendency
In the latest survey results in the fall of 2020, the strongest growth is the “definite stage”. Although the blockchain capital team expected a greater increase in this indicator, the results were somewhat surprising.
When evaluating the “affirmative stage”, the method of blockchain capital selection is to ask the respondents to what extent they agree with “most people will use Bitcoin in the next ten years?”, “very” or “somewhat” agree with this statement The percentage of the population increased from 33% in the spring of 2019 to 41% in the fall of 2020, an increase of 8 percentage points.
- 56% of 18-34 year-olds “very” or “somewhat” agree that most people will use Bitcoin in the next ten years;
- 57% of 35-44 year-olds “very” or “somewhat” agree that most people will use Bitcoin in the next ten years.
A new question has been added to this latest survey, that is, asking Americans whether Bitcoin exists for longer? Or the euro will last longer. As a result, 38% of people believe that Bitcoin will last longer than the Euro, and 58% of the 18-34 year-olds believe that Bitcoin will last longer than the Euro.
In addition to having faith in the future of Bitcoin, this survey also attempts to assess whether the general population will give priority to Bitcoin or other assets as their investment targets. Therefore, a question was raised in the survey: Are you more willing to own $1,000 worth of Bitcoin, or are you more willing to own $1,000 worth of government bonds/stocks/real estate/gold? As a result, the relative preference rate of preferential investment in Bitcoin has risen across the board, and the growth of the young population is particularly strong.
Regardless of age level, the overall survey results are as follows:
- 26% prefer Bitcoin over government bonds (up from 21% in the spring of 2019);
- 23% prefer Bitcoin to stocks (up from 17% in spring 2019);
- 20% of people prefer Bitcoin to real estate (up from 14% in spring 2019);
- 18% prefer Bitcoin over gold (up from 12% in spring 2019).
Among the 18-34 age group:
- 38% prefer Bitcoin over government bonds (up from 30% in the spring of 2019);
- 35% of people prefer Bitcoin over stocks (up from 27% in spring 2019);
- 33% of people prefer Bitcoin to real estate (up from 24% in spring 2019);
- 31% prefer Bitcoin over gold (up from 22% in spring 2019).
Among the 35-44 age group:
- 36% prefer Bitcoin over government bonds (up from 27% in spring 2019);
- 31% prefer Bitcoin to stocks (up from 22% in spring 2019);
- 25% of people prefer Bitcoin to real estate (up from 15% in spring 2019);
- 26% prefer Bitcoin to gold (up from 14% in spring 2019).
Although the price of Bitcoin was still about 50% lower than the historical high at the time of this survey, the willingness of ordinary people to buy Bitcoin has increased. In general, the proportion of people who are “very” or “somewhat” likely to buy Bitcoin in the next 5 years has increased by 7 percentage points-from 27% in the spring of 2019 to 34% in the fall of 2020.
Consistent with the general results in this survey, young people seem to be most inclined to buy Bitcoin, among which:
- 55% of the 18-34 age group said that they are “very” or “somewhat” likely to buy Bitcoin in the next 5 years (an increase of 13 percentage points from 42% in the spring of 2019)
- Only 26% of people over the age of 35 say they are “very” or “somewhat” likely to buy Bitcoin in the next 5 years.
“Adoption stage”: owner and user
The proportion of people who own cryptocurrency has increased across the board (only 16% of people own Bitcoin in the spring of 2019, and this number has increased to 24% in the fall of 2020), in this latest survey of people who “at least heard about crypto assets” in:
- 14% claimed to own Bitcoin;
- 8% claimed to own Bitcoin Cash;
- 6% of people claimed to own BNB;
- 5% claimed to own Ether.
The biggest gain of this survey is that over time, Bitcoin has two very obvious development elements:
- First, as Bitcoin proves itself year after year, more and more people are beginning to understand it (regardless of age level).
- Secondly, with the development of time, young people currently account for a large part of the total Bitcoin economy and investment activities-it is particularly important to note that young people are more inclined to buy and Use Bitcoin.
In short, for Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies more broadly), technology (and macro) investors have long focused on cultivating the interest, participation, and activities of young people.
The data will not lie. If you are a forward-looking company or investor, do you now know how to determine the market position?