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Everyone knows that Ethereum 2.0 launched the genesis block on December 1st, and it has entered the normal operation stage. However, what everyone is most concerned about is the issue of funds. Some people think that the price of Ethereum is already very high, and some People think that a real bull market has not yet ushered in.
In fact, I have written many articles about Ethereum 2.0 before this. What is the meaning of the writing?
This time I will use the future as the main topic to predict the possible situation of Ethereum 2.0.
Let’s first look at the current progress. The number of pledges for Ethereum 2.0 has exceeded one million, and the annual interest rate is 15.7%. According to the current progress forecast, there may be another wave of massive pledges after the Ethereum 2.0 update roadmap. I think there are four major things that may happen to Ethereum 2.0 in the future, which are also the official team’s consideration in advance. (This content is only representative of the personal official, without any ridicule or investment advice, just discuss the matter)
1. Assuming that Ethereum 2.0 reaches the 1.5 stage at the beginning of 2022, investors who participate in the pledge can withdraw cash. However, if there is a large amount of cash withdrawal at that time, the current price of Ethereum will experience a wave of decline, and it will be large after the withdrawal If it falls, investors will definitely raise opinions in the community.
Assuming that the price of Ethereum in 2022 is US$1,000, if a large number of withdrawals cause the price to fall to US$900, and the sharding has not yet fully formed, a large number of transactions will continue to increase the Ethereum GAS fee to sky-high prices, and the number of pending transactions will increase. If it is big, it will affect the entire Ethereum ecosystem.
2. After the complete conversion of PoW to PoS is completed, how should the interests of Pow mining machine manufacturers and PoW mining machine holders be determined? Existing PoW miners switching to PoS may cause the loss of some miners, and PoS miners may have a large number of newcomers.
If the number of absenteeism decreases due to the reduction of absenteeism costs, will Ethereum face unmanned packaged transactions causing continued congestion, then a group of opponents will appear at this time, and the Ethereum PoS mechanism may appear online. The possibility of forking.
Image source: CoinGecko (the price curve of Ethereum since its development)
3. Ethereum currently uses the PoW method to generate blocks, and it is widely used in DeFi ecology. At the 1.5 stage, will there be a new currency that will be exchanged 1:1 with the existing ETH. The process of gradual conversion from PoW to PoS has been achieved, allowing investors who participated in the Ethereum 2.0 pledge to continue to lock up positions for a period of time to obtain more income.
4. Ethereum 2.0 may usher in a short-term bear market for a period of time after the completion of the 1.5 phase, causing miners to sell Ethereum in a large amount. After everything is stable, the team’s strategy changes and the further advancement of Ethereum 2.0 will be opened. The switch of the bull market, and this process may occur in the second year after the Ethereum 2.0 PoS mechanism is officially launched.
Image source: Non-small (ETH2,0 pledge number curve in the past 30 days)
Now we can see that the pledge work of Ethereum 2.0 has progressed smoothly. I am also very optimistic about the long-term value of Ethereum. It is only in the larger environment next year whether new types will appear to attract investors to move in.
At present, DeFi uses ETH the most, and Polkadot’s ecology is constantly innovating. Other domestic public chains are also eyeing up and competing with Ethereum for market share.
The future development depends on constant changes. Although the world of blockchain is groping in constant changes, although the world of blockchain is constantly changing, this is exactly what all blockchain practitioners are trying to make on the chain. As a result of the combination of off-chain scenarios, Ethereum has successfully taken the first step, and the follow-up story will be even more exciting.
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