The OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) token has entered a pronounced downtrend, shedding 2.42% in the past 24 hours to trade at $4.47 and extending its weekly losses to 7.83%. This decline is not driven by a single factor but rather by a confluence of technical deterioration, strategic selling by large holders, and a shifting narrative within the Trump-affiliated digital asset ecosystem.
From a technical perspective, the token has decisively broken below its key support zone between $4.80 and $5.00—a range that had served as a consolidation base in late January. Now trading beneath both its 7-day ($4.72) and 30-day ($5.13) simple moving averages, TRUMP’s chart structure has turned bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI14) sits at 29.5, indicating oversold conditions, yet this has failed to catalyze a meaningful rebound. Compounding the bearish signal, the MACD histogram registers at -0.050667, confirming sustained downward momentum. Market participants are now watching the $4.43 level—corresponding to a prior swing low—as the next critical line of defense. A daily close below this threshold could trigger algorithmic sell orders and cascading liquidations, potentially driving the price toward its 2026 low near $4.10.
Simultaneously, on-chain data reveals significant distribution activity from long-term holders. On January 30, a wallet dormant since December 2025 transferred 3.17 million TRUMP tokens (valued at approximately $14.2 million) to Binance, signaling profit-taking or risk-off behavior ahead of scheduled token unlocks
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. This move aligns with a broader trend: exchange-held circulating supply has increased by 8% over the past week, suggesting whales are positioning to offload holdings. With February set to unlock 20% of the total supply, historical precedent—which shows TRUMP typically declines 12–18% during unlock weeks—adds further downward pressure.
Compounding these structural headwinds is a notable shift in market sentiment and capital allocation. The launch and rapid ascent of USD1, a Trump-endorsed stablecoin that recently surpassed a $5 billion market cap
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, has drawn institutional and retail attention away from the more volatile TRUMP token. Social media buzz around TRUMP has waned by 37% this week, while derivatives markets reflect growing pessimism: open interest has fallen 6.1%, and funding rates have turned negative (-0.0052134%), meaning short sellers are paying longs to maintain their positions—a clear sign of bearish dominance. While TRUMP may temporarily benefit if USD1 faces regulatory scrutiny, its current role appears increasingly relegated to that of a speculative retail play rather than a core asset in the Trump digital finance narrative.
In summary, TRUMP’s slide stems from a perfect storm of technical breakdown, anticipatory whale selling ahead of major unlocks, and capital rotation into less volatile, Trump-branded alternatives like USD1. Although the RSI suggests the asset may be due for a bounce, the absence of near-term catalysts and the looming supply overhang point to continued downside risk. All eyes are now on whether the $4.43 support holds before the February 2 unlock—or if the token will test the psychologically significant $4.00 level.
