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On January 5th, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (December 22nd-December 29th), which is also the last weekly position report for 2020. As of this week’s release, the CFTC has officially updated the position performance of the 143 CME platform. The market in 2020 has increased significantly compared with 18-19 years, and the scale of positions held by various accounts in 2020 has increased significantly. With the increase in market popularity and the enlargement of the sample base, the weekly report will present more precise investor trends, and the value of this weekly data to market participants will continue to increase.
In the latest statistical cycle, the price of BTC continued to rise. Within the week, it achieved a price increase of about US$5,000. The currency price quickly approached the integer mark of US$30,000. At the market level, it is difficult for the market to see any signs of stopping rising and falling. Basically, there hasn’t been any correction, and the unilateral price hike posture is quite clear. However, the position adjustment performance of various accounts in the latest statistical cycle is really surprising.
The total number of positions (total open positions) in the latest data has dropped sharply from 12,603 to 10,653. This value has dropped from the previous eight-week high and directly hit a new low of nearly 11 weeks, the last time the market appeared such a big one. The large-scale one-week reduction in holdings will be traced back to the week of September 8, 2020, that is, a similar situation occurred when BTC plunged from above 11,000 and fell below the 10,000 mark. However, as mentioned above, the BTC price did not see any diving in the latest statistical period, and even continued to rise unilaterally without a callback. The large-scale reduction in holdings in this context is quite unexpected and can only be understood as A large number of market participants are skeptical about the continued increase in prices, and they have carried out consistent risk control and reductions, which has resulted in the result of such a position adjustment that is contrary to market performance.
In terms of sub-data, large-scale brokers’ long positions have further increased from 573 to 620, which is a four-week high. Short positions have risen slightly from 30 to 32. Large institutions are still in the latest statistical cycle. A fairly clear increase in multiple orders. Compared with the sharp decline in overall position performance, brokerage accounts still show strong confidence in chasing gains in the context of the continued rapid rise in the market, and from the results, BTC is indeed gaining momentum. At the beginning of the new year, a strong breakthrough to the $30,000 mark was completed. Large institutions once again demonstrated their precise judgment ability in the weekly report to be closed in 2020, and continued to chase after the market’s lightening tide. Multi-handed operation is quite exciting.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of leveraged fund accounts fell from 4,357 to 3,679, which also reached a new low in nearly 11 weeks. The short position plunged from 10,320 to 8,466, and the short position quickly moved away from the history created in the previous statistical cycle. High, a record low in the past six weeks. Leveraged funds have carried out a simultaneous and significant reduction in both long and short positions in the latest statistical cycle. Although the proportion of long and short positions of this type of account has increased slightly from the results of the long and short positions, it is considered that this type of account has been used for a long time. Most of the account adjustments are based on simultaneous long and short bilateral operations, and the increase or decrease of positions basically directly shows the attitude of such accounts to the market. Therefore, the results of the adjustment of positions in the latest weekly report show that leveraged funds have begun to make profits in advance. And by reducing positions for risk control, such accounts lack confidence in BTC prices continuing to rise.
In terms of large holdings, long positions fell from 2,418 to 2,123, and short positions rose from 120 to 245. In the latest statistical cycle, large accounts have directly bucked the market and carried out a fairly clear net air-conditioning position. This kind of adjustment idea is more radical than the risk control adjustment of leveraged funds. It can be understood as an attempt to buck the market. Judging from the results, this operation of large accounts did not yield very good results.
In terms of retail positions, long positions fell from 3878 to 3165, and short positions further rose from 663 to 720. In the latest statistical cycle, retail investors have carried out net air-conditioning warehouses very similar to those of large ones. After just restarting the last statistical cycle, after only one week, they returned to the “wrong way” of bucking the market. This shows that retail accounts still lack sufficient ability to judge the market, and the label of strong speculation has not been removed.
In the statistical cycle of the last weekly report in 2020, many types of accounts, including leveraged funds, large accounts, and retail accounts, have carried out bearish operations against the market, whether for risk control, speculation or any other purpose The market performance after the beginning of 2021 has confirmed the wrong choice of these types of accounts. In contrast, brokerage accounts representing large institutions are still one of the most reliable weather vanes in this market. In the first weekly report of 2021, we can see what choices various accounts will make in the face of breaking through 30,000 BTC, especially when the next statistical cycle happens to include the sharp correction at the beginning of this week. The choice of account may give us some inspiration.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?
