Although the development of DeFi has moved the “cheese” of CEX, it is too early to conclude that CEX funds will flow to DeFi.
Original title: “From CEX to DEX? After analyzing a month’s data, we discovered the flow of tokens under the DeFi wave.
Written by: Carol
In the past three months, the brutal growth of DeFi, especially the rise of AMM DEX (automated market-making decentralized exchange) that naturally fits with Yield Farming, has allowed the original centralized exchange to sit firmly on the top of the industry. (CEX) felt uneasy. With the continuous deepening and expansion of Farming, profit-seeking funds have begun to “migrate” to DEX. Coupled with the mobilization of the “withdrawal movement”, the argument of CEX capital loss has become widespread. On the other hand, in response to the impact of DeFi, CEX has listed DeFi concept coins, launched liquid mining products and launched AMM DEX in the past two months. Under these series of response measures, has CEX’s funds been lost?
To this end, PAData will observe market changes through the recent capital flow analysis of major CEX and DeFi platforms on the market. The analysis believes that in the near future, the ETH of the main CEX has indeed shown a state of overall loss, but the stable currency is in a state of inflow as a whole, while the stable currency in the DeFi platform is in a state of overall loss. In addition, there are obvious differences in the flow direction of different DeFi concept coins between DeFi and CEX.
CEX flows out of ETH but flows into stablecoins
Since the current DeFi ecosystem is mainly deployed on Ethereum, ETH has become the basic asset of DeFi. Observing the flow direction of ETH can show the development trend of DeFi to a certain extent. According to statistics from DAppTotal, the four major trading markets of Coinbase, Binance, Huobi, and OKEx have all flowed out of ETH in the last month, totaling 1,853,100 ETH. According to CoinMetrics’ corrected August average ETH price of US$401.85, this is equivalent to a total of US$745 million outflow from the four major exchanges recently.
Among them, Huobi has flowed out about 793,600 ETH, equivalent to 319 million U.S. dollars, and the loss rate in the past month is nearly 17.77% [1]. However, affected by the size of the exchange balance base, the monthly ETH loss rate of Coinbase and Binance are both around 5%, but the ETH outflow of Coinbase is much higher than that of Binance, reaching about 464,200, which is equivalent to US$187 million. Binance has only about 162,900 pieces, which is equivalent to $65 million. The amount of OKEx churn is lower than Coinbase, 432,400 ETH, which is equivalent to US$174 million, but the monthly churn rate is as high as 21.94%.
Although the main CEX ETH has been losing in the past month, in general, stablecoins have been flowing in. According to CryptoQuant data, 10 exchanges, including the above 4, have inflowed over 107 million USD stablecoins in the last month. The stablecoins here include DeFi mainstream liquid assets USDT (ERC 20), USDC, TUSD and DAI.
Among them, Binance has the highest inflow of US dollar stablecoins, reaching about 306 million. If calculated according to the 1:1 anchor rate, it is equivalent to 306 million US dollars. But this is mainly affected by the large-scale inflow of USDT. According to statistics, Binance’s recent USDT inflow rate[2] has reached 767.72%. Secondly, the total inflow of OKEx’s recent stablecoins has also reached approximately 109 million, which is also mainly affected by the large-scale inflow of USDT. The inflow rate of USDT has reached 1754.94%, and the inflow rate of TUSD has also reached 133.49%.
On the other hand, Huobi’s recent stablecoin outflow is relatively high, reaching about 182 million. Its USDT outflow rate is about 36.34%, and the USDC inflow rate is about 23.14%. In addition, the stablecoins of Bitfinex, Coinbase, Gate.io and Bittrex have also shown an overall outflow state in the past month. Bitfinex’s USDT outflow rate was 81.47%, with a total of 88.7 million USDT outflows.
However, it must be pointed out that the amount of stablecoins fluctuates greatly. For example, stablecoins happen to be issued during the statistical period. Therefore, the inflow and outflow of stablecoins on exchanges are more affected by accidental factors. Only limited transactions can be displayed here. Funding trends of the institute.
The inflow of stablecoins on the DeFi platform is less than 100 million
According to previous statistics, the liquidity of stablecoins accounts for more than 38% of the total liquidity[3], and it has become an important asset class second only to ETH in the DeFi world. So, how many stablecoins have each DeFi platform flowed into in the past week?
PAData counts the balance changes of USDT (ERC 20), USDC, TUSD and DAI in 20 DeFi platform addresses from September 7 to September 11 [4]. Overall, in the past week, a total of 257 million stablecoins have flowed out of 20 DeFi platforms. Among them, Uniswap outflows 204 million, but considering the special event of Sushiswap’s migration from Uniswap during the observation period, it is very likely that the stablecoins “outflow” from Uniswap have only migrated to Sushiswap, not out of DeFi. If you don’t count Uniswap’s outflow, then 20 DeFi platforms in the past week have outflowed a total of 53 million.
Among the 20 DeFi platforms, Compound and Aave are the DeFi platforms with the most stablecoins flowing out, each with about 50 million coins flowing out. The most inflows of stablecoins are Cream.finance and yearn.finance, with about 39 million and 12 million stablecoins respectively. On the whole, 11 platforms have inflows of stablecoins, with a total of about 57 million.
Judging from the recent flow rates of various types of stablecoins, the inflow of Cream.finance and yearn.finance is mainly USDC, and the inflow rates of the two platforms reached 1496.6% and 115.3% respectively.
And on the whole, 16 of the 20 DeFi platforms are in the inflow state of USDC, and only 4 platforms are in the outflow state. In addition, 11 platforms are in the inflow state of DAI, 3 platforms are in the inflow state of TUSD, and only 1 platform is in the inflow state of USDT. It may be affected by the larger scale of USDT. Most DeFi owns a relatively small share, which exceeds the scope of this statistics. However, it can still be observed that USDC plays an important role in the DeFi ecosystem, as well as DeFi’s role and impact on USDC. An important influence on the entire stablecoin pattern.
DeFi concept currency flows to “torn apart”
In addition to ETH and stablecoins, DeFi tokens have also become important agricultural assets due to the rich composability of the DeFi ecosystem. But what is interesting is that some DeFi concept coins flow to CEX, and some DeFi concept coins flow “mock dolls” between DeFi platforms.
Similarly, PAData calculated the balance changes of 11 DeFi assets in 23 centralized platforms and 15 DeFi platforms from September 7 to September 11 [5]. The criterion for selecting observation assets is that the DeFi assets have high liquidity in the DeFi platform.
According to statistics, as a whole, in the past week, a total of 7.9063 million DeFi assets on the centralized platform have flowed out. Among them, AMPL and LEND had the most outflows, both with about 8.9 million outflows. On the contrary, SUSHI was the DeFi asset with the most inflows into CEX, with a total inflow of about 9.08 million.
From the perspective of various CEX platforms, in the past week, KuCoin net outflow of DeFi assets is at most one market, with a total of 7.45 million outflows, of which AMPL outflows about 6.62 million outflows, accounting for 88.86% of KuCoin outflows. Huobi is the market with the largest net inflow of DeFi assets, with a total of about 2.62 million inflows, of which about 3.69 million in SUSHI and 1.12 million in LEND.
It is also worth noting that Binance is the most active market for asset flows. In the past week, Binance has flowed out more than 6.86 million DeFi concept coins, but has inflowed more than 7.22 million DeFi concept coins. Among them, LEND flowed out about 6.35 million pieces, which was the most outflowed asset, and SUSHI flowed into about 5.3 million pieces, which was the most inflowed asset.
From the perspective of the CEX platform of each asset flow, there is a certain degree of “platform-asset” concentration.
For example, AMPL has flowed more into FTX in the past week, Band has flowed more into Binance, COMP has more flowed into Bitfinex, SUSHI has more flowed into FTX, CoinEx and Binance, and UMA has more flowed into KuCoin. YAMv2 flows into Huobi more, and YFI flows into OKEx more.
In addition, LEND, LINK, and YFII generally flowed out of CEX.
In the DeFi platform, in the past week, various DeFi assets have also shown an overall outflow state, with a total of about 82 million outflows. Among them, LEND, SUSHI and AMPL are the three largest outflows of assets, reaching about 34 million, respectively. 22 million pieces and 15 million pieces.
From the perspective of the DeFi platform, Uniswap, which is affected by the liquidity migration of SushiSwap, is the market that has the most outflow of DeFi concept coins recently, with a total of about 76 million outflows. Among them, LEND is the most outflowed asset, reaching about 32 million. SUSHI, AMPL, SNX, LINK and BAND also flowed more.
In addition, there are many DeFi concept coins that have flowed out of Balancer, Harvest and Aave, all exceeding 1.4 million. The most outflow of Balancer is LINK, about 1.14 million, the most outflow of Harvest is SUSHI, about 1.58 million, and the most out of Aave is LEND, about 2.48 million. It is worth noting that Aave is a relatively active market for asset flows in the DeFi platform. In the past week, about 2.48 million DeFi concept coins have flowed out, and a total of about 1.02 million DeFi concept coins have flowed in.
And Cream.finance is the platform with the largest net inflow of DeFi concept coins in the past week, reaching about 571,000, of which almost all are LEND, with a total of about 569,800.
From the perspective of the DeFi platform for each asset flow, except for YFII, which flows to Uniswap and YFI, which flows to Cream, many other DeF assets generally flow from the DeFi platform, such as AMPL, BAND, COMP, LEND, SNX and SUSHI. Among them, the outflow rate of assets in Uniswap is generally greater than 85%, which may be related to the migration of Sushiswap during the observation period. After excluding this effect, it is still possible to observe a large outflow of COMP from Pylon.Finance and MCDEX, a large outflow of SUSHI from Boosted and Harvest, and a large outflow of YFI from Harvest.
If you combine the flow of tokens in the CEX and DeFi platforms, you can see that YFII generally flows out of CEX, but more flows into Uniswap. AMPL, BAND, COMP, and SUSHI generally flow into DeFi platforms, but more flows into individual CEX.
The flow of funds in the market is very complex and changeable. This observation only conducted a limited analysis from a very narrow time window. The results may have a certain chance, but it can be seen from this that although the development of DeFi has moved CEX’s ” Cheese”, but it is too early to conclude that CEX funds flow to DeFi. It is more likely that funds are frequently exchanged in two different types of markets. Moreover, because the encryption world and the real world still lack extensive communication channels, from the current development of DeFi, it is more like a financial product. The core of its competition with CEX lies in the amount of revenue it provides to users. It is common sense for capital to flow to higher-yielding markets, but this flow is not enough to make more judgments.
the data shows
[1] The monthly churn rate refers to the decrease in the balance on September 6 compared to the balance on August 9.
[2] The monthly inflow rate refers to the increase in the balance on September 6 compared to the balance on August 9.
[3] Refer to “DEX on the Opinion: Liquidity soars by 300%, “Sushi chef” is ugly”.
[4] Here we only observe the address balance of the DeFi platform among the top 200 addresses of each asset balance on Etherescan. This incomplete statistics will produce certain errors, but considering that regardless of whether it is various stable coins or DeFi assets, the degree of chip concentration is relatively high, so the top 200 addresses are already representative. The theoretical error is relatively small.
[5] Same as above, excluding the balance of the protocol governance address.
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