Original title: Still not enough money
I have been thinking about a question in the past two days. Why didn’t we buy bottom DeFi blue chips? Why is there no sense of bargaining at the time of YFI 7000 and AAVE 35?
On the one hand, it escaped. At the beginning of the first wave of DeFi bubble squeeze, luckily managed to escape the top. After that, all DeFi projects experienced a major correction, with an average drop of 60%. At that time, I felt that they were about to return to zero, and I was so happy. After all, after selling the asset, I would naturally hope that it would keep falling. The drop is so huge that I don’t believe in DeFi anymore, and I don’t believe that the leading projects can enter the top 20 or top 10. I want to keep the profits made in this wave of DeFi, holding BTC for stability, I feel very comfortable. And my thinking is that altcoins will only be played once and will not go back to play again. Generally speaking, this is the case. However, this is only for non-head/leading/cottages, like YFI/AAVE/UNI is obviously not suitable.
During this period, watching the head institutions such as Polychain and Three Arrow buy positions in YFI and AAVE respectively, I was indifferent. At the time, I thought that more money is good, and they just do an asset allocation. This is actually correct. For example, although Polychain has bought the top 10 wealth list, it still accounts for a small part of their total assets. That is to say, I am talking about becoming a major player in a project rather than a heavy warehouse. However, for most people, it is impossible to buy a $1 billion-level project into the top 50 or more. Only institutions with assets of more than $100 million have room for such operations.
I just don’t have enough money to have the courage to buy the bottom at that time. In fact, why don’t you know that YFI/AAVE/UNI are the leading projects? Why don’t you believe that they will enter the top 20 or even the top 10? Why don’t you understand that the operation of institutions is always smarter than retail investors, whether in terms of funds, information, and cognition. Great advantage.
In summary, the money is still not in place. When the money is in place, you will naturally make arrangements.
It can also be seen from Polychain’s crazy purchase of YFI that this era is an era when the strong are always strong and the leaders are becoming more expensive. Bitcoin and Ethereum are no different from Moutai and Apple stocks. It is a steady rise. Just like technology companies and family offices outside the circle will only buy BTC, the top Crypto Fund will only buy the leading projects of the subdivision track.
After struggling again and again, the three major DeFi devices, YFI/AAVE/UNI, were finally configured, and the stone hanging in my heart finally fell.
I previously thought that the new professional DeFi agreement may be a big opportunity, such as options, interest rates, insurance, and tiered funds. From the recent performance of these projects, it is not difficult to see that it is still very difficult to run into a big coin like AAVE/UNI. The main reason is that these projects are not precipitated. They are often the first to come out with a wave of liquidity mining, and the secondary market tokens are first hyped. This may allow a small number of market-sensitive traders to make money, but it is not beneficial to the development of the project itself. It’s just that the wealth of a small number of people is transferred again, not the common wealth like AAVE/YFI.
Therefore, it is difficult for these projects to become a big climate. After the market value of circulation reaches 20-30 million US dollars, it begins to decline. The reason is that there is no continuous capital inflow. The current market capital diversion is too serious. If the product does not continue to iterate and cannot continue to gain attention, the capital will be withdrawn after a wave of token speculation. After all, those who enter these DeFi agreements are only hot money, not value-added money.
Everyone only saw the highlight moment of UNI/AAVE, but did not see their struggle and pain in the trough. Precipitation is the only way to success. Therefore, we still need to give these new DeFi protocols time to iterate the products and let the products speak. This is the most tangible.
Some time ago, I probably had too much expectations for these new DeFi protocols, so I ignored the old DeFi leaders. We always look for the next one instead of cherishing what is in front of you at this moment. There is a saying, but the market has already selected the best target for you, and that is BTC. Because you will probably not be smarter than the market. The DeFi leader also makes sense.
Just look at the K line is too narrow. For example, look at the daily and weekly lines of YFI. In the downtrend of the previous few months, the K line was really ugly, but now you can look at the monthly line of YFI. It looks very beautiful. . In this way, it is inevitable that Zhou Qiujian is choking, because the candlesticks are drawn and piled up with money, which essentially reflects the inflow of funds. Still can’t forget the fundamentals and just look at the K-line, otherwise you will lose big because of small.
“Why on the surface it seems that the YFI team is not stable enough to attract so much capital and attention? Why does the anonymous Farm’s TVL even exceed YFI, but the valuation is still far inferior to YFI? The answer is creativity and transparency. The market gives transparency. The high valuation of the project and the first-of-its-kind praise given by the market are both an important part of the overall valuation of a project. With a creative team, you have unlimited possibilities.”
Just like Mr. Jia said, the market will give the “first” additional premium. We are struggling to pursue the next ETH, the next BTC, and the next YFI, but the problem is that this kind of initiative and firmly occupy the dominance of the subdivision track, and the product continues to iterate and continue to attract market attention (the first premium, Brand premium, founder’s premium) are all unavoidable, pay attention to a good time and place. In this case, why not bet on BTC ETH and YFI directly.
Many new projects are coming out every day. Need attention, but don’t spend too much effort on long tail currencies. Because most of these projects can’t make it out, the project will start to die slowly after a short pull and hit.
The screening of information is also very important. There must be a priority and important level of information for the received information, otherwise you will be submerged in the ocean of information in the bull market and cannot get out.
When the group of demons danced around, all coins were rising. I always felt that the coins in my hand had gone up less. I always felt that I didn’t have enough money. I always felt that I still had coins that I should buy but I was too late to buy. Increase. These are all mentality issues.
Most people who come to play in this market have certain flaws, either financial flaws, cognitive flaws, or other flaws. The overall game process must be carried out with its own flaws. Don’t think about going into battle after everything is ready. This is no different from the idea of ”If I have money, I can do what I can do”. Hurry forward when I don’t have money. It is the best right now.
Strategic adjustments, rhythm control, position changes, and another point is the grasp of mentality. It’s a common topic.
In the case of limited funds, I personally will give priority to the leader and then the dark horse. Some time ago, because the faucet was not equipped, there was always some worry. Configure BTC/ETH/NEAR/YFI/UNI/AAVE, and then find ways to toss. Don’t lose big because of small.
Regarding some new ideas about overseas investment strategies, you can’t invest too much overseas, and you cannot get excess returns if you invest too much. It doesn’t matter whether it is used on large coins or small coins, or focus on 2-3 coins, in order to obtain excess returns. I found out that I had 10 small coins, but the final income was mediocre.
After Niu Chu turned it on, he found that the operation was not so smooth. There are many things to learn, and it takes time to clear the mind. Don’t ignore strategic slack just because of tactical diligence. More important than looking at new projects is the phased review.
So far, I haven’t found a project with huge returns like YFI, nor have I found a strategy that can beat the market. I went round and round for a small coin. In fact, I didn’t make much. I found that the strategy of configuring the leader is the most stable. The so-called road to simple, maybe the long-term strategy of deploying the leader is exactly the long-term strategy that can outperform the market. I personally think that in the early stage of the bull market, when the allocation is good, it only needs to flatten the market income. For example, my faucet configuration strategy. I believe that the force must be in the later stage. As for overtaking opportunities on large corners like YFI, you can only wait patiently for it to appear in the future.
