Original title: “The truth behind the trend behind the change in Bitcoin address holdings”
Written by: William Chatting
Because Bitcoin addresses are open and transparent, and many exchanges, institutions, and individuals often know who the address belongs to because of personal disclosure or institutional disclosure, or being “guessed” by people.
Well, in fact, many times you observe the changes in the bitcoin stock on different bitcoin addresses, and you can actually reveal some information, allowing you to see some “secrets” or trends that you can’t see on the surface, which is very interesting.
But this has to be explored and summarized by someone who is interested. Just yesterday, a blogger did this. I will borrow his picture to talk about the changes in the number of addresses and how we can see the Bitcoin world. Change and overall trends.
The story starts with the recent introduction of the lively new CX method “Bitcoin Supply and Liquidity Crisis”.
In fact, this so-called crisis is simply “the currency has been bought, and you can’t buy it without buying it.”
It is indeed a crisis, but it is not so exaggerated.
However, the trend is indeed very obvious, let’s sort it out briefly.
Huge trend change
Among all address data, the most conspicuous is the strong negative correlation between the decline in the exchange balance and the currency price trend:
On the right side of this graph, there was a huge turning point in the number of bitcoins in the exchange address. It was also on the day of 312, everything began to change.
The fewer coins on the exchange and the more coins on hold, the better the currency price trend is obviously.
This is a major trend change that has hardly been seen before, and people are obviously happy to comment on such a change, because the currency price has obviously improved.
Correspondingly, HODL addresses have more and more coins.
HODL is like Pixiu, only in, but not out
Not all addresses with “only in and no out” are HODL addresses, but only in but not out is definitely a very good HODL. There are more and more bitcoins lying on their addresses.
14.5% of the coins are well hidden in the safe by HODL, and this number is becoming more and more.
How much did Bitcoin “lost”?
Everyone knows that because Bitcoin was too cheap in the early days, many people didn’t care about it. Mistakes such as the loss of private keys abound, meaning that there has always been a saying that “millions of Bitcoins have been permanently lost.”
So how much is it? This is indeed difficult to say, but it can be estimated to be more than three million.
16% of Bitcoins are permanently locked.
Are the miners always shipping?
Many people have always had the impression that miners have been “shipping”, which is the main selling pressure in the market.
And whenever such reports appear, retail investors are always very scared:
But in fact, from the data point of view, it seems that miners don’t really want to sell coins this year.
It can be seen that miners still prefer to stock up coins, and the better the market, the better. I think the possible reason is that when the market is good, only a small amount of coins is enough to pay for the electricity bill, and when the market is bad, you have to sell a lot of coins to pay.
At present, the income of miners is excellent, and with the phenomenon of “lack of power and miners” in China, we believe that as the price of Bitcoin rises, miners will sell less and less coins, and the amount of coins will be more More and more.
What is the real circulation of Bitcoin?
The last point, which everyone is more concerned about, is that there are a lot of bitcoins here and a lot there, so how many bitcoins are still in circulation on the market?
In fact, only 12% of Bitcoins are in circulation.
In fact, the address data is indeed in line with our understanding. Most bitcoins are actually lying quietly in cold wallets, and only a few of them are used or pledged by transactions.
In other words, it is this 12% of Bitcoin that determines the price of Bitcoin.
This is why foreigners will start to say that Bitcoin has a “liquidity crisis”, because according to this trend, Bitcoin in circulation will soon drop to less than 10%, and there will really be a “currency shortage” in the market. “. This is a monetary phenomenon, but I think Bitcoin is not a currency after all, and there should be no so-called liquidity crisis.
The fewer bitcoins that can be traded, the higher the price. This logic is actually very reasonable.
When you change your understanding of Bitcoin circulation to “only two million”, you will find that foreigners buy thousands, tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of them. What does it mean to this market? .
Finally, I believe that when we see that the true circulation of Bitcoin is less than 10% of the total, that is, less than 2 million (currently 1800+ dug out), we may see a “quantity change causing qualitative change” Of Bitcoin “the so-called liquidity crisis.”
What does that mean?
It means:
