◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>
The market, which started out strong following the previous day’s uptrend, is falling as most cryptocurrencies are weak. However, the trading volume is still low compared to the previous day, so it seems like a process for sale for further rise, but major market capitalizations such as Ethereum, which are highly correlated with Bitcoin, as the buying force for Bitcoin (BTC), the No. 1 cryptocurrency market capitalization, is not strong. It is not easy to rise in the market by top cryptocurrencies.
As of 14:00 on the 1st, Bitcoin (BTC), the No. 1 cryptocurrency market cap based on the coin market cap, is rising to $36,724.64, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $38.1 billion and a market cap of about $688.1 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $ 1.62 trillion, with a share of 42.2% of the Bitcoin market cap and 18.7% of the Ethereum market cap. As of 14:00, the top stocks of major stocks are Theta Token (THETA, +3.56%), Dogecoin (DOGE, +1.51%), Enjincoin (ENJ, +0.79%), and Ripple (XRP, +0.61%). .
While the US stock market was closed last night for Memorial Day, European stock markets fell slightly as arbitrage listings were made. Even though the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 (from 5.6% to 5.8%), it is analyzed that inflationary pressures such as a rise in the German price index contributed to the decline. The market is watching the US employment data released this week as it is considered a leading indicator of the strength of the US economic recovery.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased 1.69% from the previous day, and the market capitalization excluding bitcoin decreased by 1.79% from the previous day, making Bitcoin a lesser drop than altcoins, and the market capitalization of Bitcoin decreased by 1.55% from the previous day. Bitcoin’s share increased by 0.14% from the previous day, and it was analyzed that the average decline rate of altcoins was low.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market, which started out strong, turned downward around 10 o’clock as the overall market increased, and the decline continued to grow. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including Bitcoin, is -2.15%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding Bitcoin, is -2.16%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is -2.16%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC, which is -2.45%, WSC, an index focused on small stocks, recorded -2.18%.
As of 14:00 on the 1st, the cumulative buy/sell volume ratio of major cryptocurrency exchanges for the past 24 hours was 49%:51%, indicating that the selling trend was strong. As of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was also analyzed to be strong. . (See Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of Bitcoin futures is around -5.5 in backwardation, and the basis of Ethereum futures is around +2.40, maintaining contango. Bitcoin futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are falling. June futures futures traded at $36,710.0, down $490.0 (-1.32%) from the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency price status <weakness>
As of 14:00 on the 1st upbit, the price of cryptocurrency is falling. Domestic Bitcoin (BTC) price is down 0.88% from the previous day to 43,376,000 won, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 3,115,000 won, down 1.70%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.
At the same time, in the global cryptocurrency market based on CoinMarketCap, all of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization are rising as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price rose 6.97% from the same time the previous day to $36,724.64, and Ethereum (ETH) rose 14.89% to $2,635.96. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for the price of major stocks.
Analysis of major media and market experts <Neutral>
Many experts still believe that the accumulation (acquisition)/holding of institutions and miners is maintained, and the fundamentals are solid, so the prospect that the bull market will continue is still gaining strength, but the buying force of Bitcoin is not as strong as it used to be. It is believed that the period of waiting for investors is continuing. Some of them argue that Bitcoin needs a higher buying force to maintain its current price level and that a breakout of $33,000 could reinforce the downtrend.
(Positive comments)
① Justin Sun, founder of Tron, said, “The Bitcoin bull market is not over.” “The market is currently bearish and this is just a correction period in a bull market,” he said. “There will be another bull market in July and August.” He cited the growth of the crypto industry as the basis for his optimistic outlook, as Tether (USDT) transactions exploded from hundreds of millions of dollars to 30 billion dollars, and the global payment company PayPal’s crypto payment volume more than fivefold increased.
② Glassnode, a blockchain data analysis company, said that there are currently three supply trends in the Bitcoin market. Short-term holders sell, long-term holders hold/accumulate, and miners are accumulating, so ‘sell’ and ‘buy’ are fierce. He explained that he was opening a war. Glassnode also stated that “Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) premiums are rising again. This suggests that institutional investors are accumulating at a low level. “It reads as an early sign that the agency’s interest is resuming.” “Other indicators suggesting that Bitcoin is currently bottoming out is its market share similar to that of early 2017,” he said. “If Bitcoin shows a similar trend as in 2017, it is still far from reaching its all-time high, and there is room for altcoins to rise further. There is,” he predicted.
③ Robert Toru Kiyosaki, an economist and author of ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’, said, “Bitcoin’s plunge is good news. When the price drops to $27,000, I will start buying again. “The problem is not gold, silver or bitcoin, but the incompetence of the government, the US Fed and Wall Street. Remember, gold was $300 in 2000.”
④ Morgan Creek Capital Management Founder and CEO Mark Yusko said, “It is impossible for Bitcoin to go to zero at this point,” and “Bitcoin price will reach $500,000 per coin in the future. Also, Bitcoin will reach a market cap of $8 trillion in the future, and may even overtake that of gold.”
⑤Ark Investment Management CEO (CEO), ‘money tree sister’ Catherine D Wood (Catherine D Wood) said, “I still expect Bitcoin to go up to $500,000 each.” Wood said the current downtrend in Bitcoin and Tesla is “really great time to buy.”
⑥ CNBC host and former fund manager Jim Cramer, a US economic broadcaster, said, “People who missed the opportunity when Bitcoin was between $1,000 and $15,000 will return.” “They are waiting for another exhilarating (cathartic) drop (to the market). ) will come back.”
⑦The Central Bank of India (RBI) said on its official website, “The Central Bank of India has not issued an order to ban the provision of services to bank accounts handling cryptocurrencies.” In this regard, the Central Bank of India said, “According to a ruling by the Supreme Court of India in 2018, the so-called ‘cryptocurrency ban’ is no longer valid and therefore cannot be quoted. However, banks and regulators are concerned about KYC, AML, terrorist financing, etc. “We can conduct due diligence on bank customers to investigate.”
(neutral opinion)
① Rakesh Upadhyay, an analyst with Cointelegraph, a contributor to cryptocurrency media, pointed out that “Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its current price level, but it seems that it needs a higher level of demand.” “Other indicators suggesting that Bitcoin is currently at a bottom is market share similar to that of early 2017,” he said. “If Bitcoin shows a similar trend as in 2017, it is still far from hitting a high, and altcoins are likely to rise further. There is room,” he predicted. Regarding the Bitcoin price outlook, he said, “If the BTC/USDT pair price rises from its current level and crosses the 200-day SMA (simple moving average, $41,014), there is a possibility that the rally will continue to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($48,231). Conversely, if the $33,000 support level breaks, the next support level could be around $30,000-28,000. If you concede in this area too, the BTC/USDT pair could face a panic sell and drop to $20,000.”
② Aayush Jindal, an analyst at NewsBTC, a cryptocurrency media outlet, said, “The BTC/USD pair has again failed to remove resistance from $37,000. Currently, Bitcoin is on a downtrend and there is a risk of a $30,000 collapse. “If we break the $37,000 resistance while maintaining the $34,000 support, we can test the $40,000 again.”
(Negative Opinion)
① The co-founder of Decentrader’s Filbfilb emphasized, “Bitcoin needs to recover quickly to $37,500 and Ethereum (ETH) needs to maintain $2,300 to prevent the end of the bull market.” Filbfilb analyzed that if Bitcoin starts a rally and breaks above $40,000, the next resistance area to overcome will be between $45,500 and $46,500. This represents between the previous support and resistance levels. “Ethereum’s scenario is highly dependent on the strength of Bitcoin,” he said. “In order to retest the $3300 after the Ethereum bull crosses $3,000, an important area of support for Ethereum will be $2300.”
Comprehensive analysis of bitcoin price <bearish>
Over the weekend, the Bitcoin daily price (see Figure 5-1), which formed its second low from the first support point of last Thursday’s report (low $33,000), ended its correction in the morning and is moving above the 5-day moving average. Just a month ago, after the influx of the low-trough buying trend, Bitcoin’s uptrend was very strong and tended to rise in a relatively short period of time. Also, technically, it corresponds to a triangular convergence pattern, so it would be better to wait and see before the Bitcoin price crosses the upper or lower trend line.
Looking at the on-chain trading volume indicator (indicator 1, BTC spot trading volume in Figure 10), the sell volume was still high compared to the previous day, so the rise in the morning was reversed, and indicator 2 (ETH spot trading volume) was also bought compared to the previous day. Although the trading volume is expected to increase, it can be seen from indicator 4 that it is declining due to the higher net selling volume on the day. In addition, as the price volatility of both stocks is declining, the market is expected to weaken on the day.
In addition, according to the analysis of the percentage of open interest in Bitcoin options on page 15, the positions of option investors remain strong in the afternoon following the morning, but the weight of upside positions is decreasing, so the buying strength of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the day is expected to gradually weaken.
Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of simulations as of 14:00, the expected settlement price for the two options is $36,000 and $2,500, respectively. This expected price is the same as the forecast price at 10 am, so it is important to note that empirically, it is often seen that the price declines after the settlement time. (Refer to ‘Bitcoin option open interest weight analysis’ on page 15)
Binance BTC/USDT’s daily significant price change calculated by our quant program is $36,302. Since the current bitcoin price is over $36,302 and recovering the market price on the same day, you can try the same day when 1) recovers the market price on the day, 2) when the high price of the previous day, 3) when the high price of the day is broken. However, if the market price of the day that it was exceeded, the high price of the previous day, or the high price on the same day are exceeded, sell the purchased quantity and wait. A more detailed analysis based on market data can be found in ‘7. Please refer to the ‘Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical analysis <bearish>
As of 14:00 on the 1st, technical analysis of daily price movements of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, an overseas exchange, were all found to be ‘active sell’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 1 ‘buy’, 7 ‘sell’, and 0 ‘strong sell’ opinions out of Upbit’s oscillator indicators resulted in a ‘strong sell’ opinion, and the moving average indicator had 2 ‘buy’ opinions. and 10 ‘sell’ comments were summarized as ‘sell’ opinions.
If you look at Binance’s detailed items, 0 ‘buy’, 6 ‘sell’, and 2 ‘neutral’ oscillator indicators are sending a ‘active sell’ signal, while the moving average indicator has 3 ‘buy’, ‘Sell’ was summarized as ‘Sell’ with 9 cases.
Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index < bearish >
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated ‘fear and greed index’ rose 2 points from the previous day (18) to 20, indicating the same ‘extreme fear’ stage as the day before. The index closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. The fear and greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mentions (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin market cap share (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. is calculated as
◇Comparison of returns by asset (%) compared to the beginning of the year (as of 14:00 on June 1) <weakness>
The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell to 1.579% the previous day, showing a stable flow, but rising to 1.615% in the morning of the same day, acting as a factor limiting the increase in the Bitcoin price. Although the dollar index remains weak, there is still room for a rebound, if not immediately, as it is technically on the downside.
While the U.S. stock market was closed the day before, as of 14:00 on the 1st, the U.S. CME Bitcoin futures yield fell 8.62% from the beginning of the year to 13.55%, while the dollar index fell 0.02%. Gold futures, the S&P 500 and oil futures rose 0.21%, 0.22% and 0.23%, respectively. The detailed growth rate and return breakdown of the comparative asset class is as follows.
◇Comparison of returns by cryptocurrency (%) compared to the beginning of the year (as of 14:00 on June 1) <strong>
The market is rebounding, but altcoins are stronger than Bitcoin. In fact, among the top 10 stocks by market cap, Bitcoin has the lowest rate of return, excluding stablecoins Tether (USDT) and USDC (USDC). In addition, Dogecoin (DOGE, -234.16%), the No. 1 rising rate, is still falling. As of 14:00 on the 1st, compared to the beginning of the year, Dogecoin (DOGE) ranked first with 5,663.73%, Cardano (ADA) came in second with 913.59%, Binance Coin (BNB) came in third with 862.38%, and Uniswap ( UNI) ranked fourth with 505.20%, and Ripple (XRP) ranked fifth with 358.21%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the day’s trading volume <bearish>
By analyzing the daily trading volume of on-chain data of BTC/USD and ETH/USD, it is easy to check the direction of the Bitcoin price and respond. Indicators 1 and 3 in Figure 10 show the spot trading volume of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, Poloniex, Bittrex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitBTC, Gemini), and numbers 2 and 4 The indicator shows the direction of the market trend by calculating the total buying and selling quantity in real time and displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
Looking at indicator 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10, the sell volume was still high compared to the previous day, so the rise in the morning was reversed, and indicator 2 (ETH spot trading volume) is also expected to increase in buy volume compared to the previous day. It is expected, but looking at indicator #4, it can be seen that the number of net shorts on the day is higher and therefore is declining. In addition, both stocks have downward price volatility, so the market price on the day is expected to be weak in terms of on-chain trading volume indicators.
②Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <Neutral>
As the price of bitcoin and ethereum rises differently, the interval with each kimchi premium index is also changing. The kimchi premium indices of the two stocks are currently on a downward trend, so concerns over a sharp decline are judged to have been resolved. seems to be
③Bitcoin holding balance analysis of all exchanges <Neutral>
Figure 12 shows the trend of the Bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the Bitcoin price. The balance of the Bitcoin exchange, which seemed to be decreasing, increased again from May 25, and increased to the level of May 20. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price continues to move sluggishly. This increase in the balance of the Bitcoin exchange is expected to act as a burden on the Bitcoin price increase. It seems that it is necessary to periodically check whether the increase in the balance of the exchange continues to increase. This is also the case with Ethereum (see Figure 12-2), but as Ethereum has a moderately decreasing exchange balance, it is expected that the price increase will proceed smoothly.
◇ Analysis of the percentage of open interest in Bitcoin options on the day <strong>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of open interest aggregated from all Bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Derrybit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts rose by 20.72% at 10:00 am Position weight decreased to 15.33% at 14:00, and on a premium basis, at 10:00 (buy call option), 0.63% (rise): (sell put option) at 17.12% (rise) at 14:00 (buy call option) 1.51 % (upside): (sell put options) to 15.68% (up) The premium weight also decreased, but remained strong overall, so option market participants were analyzed to expect the market to remain strong on the day.
<Weakness> In the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of open interest aggregated from bitcoin options that expire on the same day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), it was 29.58% bullish at 10 am based on the number of contracts. The position weight decreased to 20.08% at 14:00, and on a premium basis, 0.07% (up) at 10:00 (long call option): (sell put option) at 30.44% (upside) at 14:00 (long call option) 0.72 % (Up): (Sell put option) was changed to 16.84% (Up). Although maintaining a bullish position, the market is expected to decline gradually by the time of settlement of maturity (17:00) as the premium is decreasing compared to the morning.
◆Main Bitcoin futures status (as of 14:00 per day)
Deribit Bitcoin option status (as of 14:00 per day)
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