[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Market decline is expected to be limited… When to buy?

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>

The international bitcoin price is falling below 54,000 dollars and the domestic bitcoin price is 70 million won, respectively, showing a downward trend. However, it was analyzed that the decline in the bitcoin price will be limited as the kimchi premium is also falling along with it (see’Bitcoin Price and Korea Premium Index Trend Analysis’ on page 13).

Last night, the US stock market went through a slight adjustment tax on profit-taking sales. Last week, the burden of high points was in effect as a result of successively breaking record highs last week, and the increased burden of realizing profits was attributable to this. By category, technology stocks (0.88% decline in the industry) were weaker, with Tesla falling 3.4% due to a car accident, and Coinbase falling 2.6% due to a weak bitcoin. On the 19th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 industrial average index fell 0.36% from the previous trading day, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index 0.53%, and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index 0.98% respectively.

As of 14:00 on the 20th, the price of Bitcoin based on CoinMarket Cap is $63,364.27, the 24-hour trading volume is about $66 billion, and the market cap is about $1.22 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.97 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 52.1%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 12.4%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 1.74% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 2.20% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin stronger than altcoins, and bitcoin’s market cap decreased by 1.34% compared to the previous day. It was analyzed that Bitcoin’s market share increased 0.45% compared to the previous day, indicating that the average decline rate of altcoins is falling less.

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that started with a weakness formed a trough around 12 o’clock and tried to rebound, but it turned out that it is declining again as a selling trend emerged. It was analyzed to be strong. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -2.69%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -3.19%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is -2.48%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC recorded -4.06%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded -7.13%.

As of 14 o’clock on the 20th, the cumulative buying:selling volume ratio of the last 24 hours at major cryptocurrency exchanges was 47%:53%, and it was analyzed that the long/short ratio of each exchange was strong as of 14:00. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around -3.0 and the basis of backwardation and Ethereum futures was around +3.25. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is falling. April futures traded at $54,852.5, down $1192.5 (-2.13%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 20th, the cryptocurrency market price is falling. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 68.8 million won, down 3.86% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 2.65 million won, down 4.60%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market is weak as of the coin market cap, and 9 out of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization are falling as of the last 24 hours. International Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell 3.60% from the same time the day before to $54,911.31, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 6.54% to $2,116.09. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts

Market experts report that Bitcoin technically maintains a short-term support line at around $55,000 after undergoing a 15% plunge correction last weekend, but faces a strong resistance line around $58,000 to $59,000. have. In addition, Bitcoin is expected to decline in the order of $50,000, then $42,000 if the selling tax is added on the daily chart.

(Positive opinion)

① Global asset management firm Fidelity Investments reported in a recent report titled’Understanding bitcoin’ that the cost increases linearly as the network size increases, but the value of the network increases exponentially. Mentioning the law,’Metcalfe’s Law’, he predicted that “the Bitcoin growth curve is still in its infancy and may continue to grow for several years.”

② Leeor Shimron, vice president of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, a US investment research firm, said, “Last weekend, a large amount of bitcoin was introduced into Binance, a cryptocurrency exchange, which contributed to speculation.” Said. Regarding the Bitcoin price outlook, he said, “We will have a longer consolidation (flooding) period of about two weeks until the $60,000 recovers.” It was viewed as “. Fundstrat expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

③ Cointelegraph, a media specialized in cryptocurrency, said, “The current on-chain transaction volume suggests that investors are still strongly buying bitcoin at the current price level (about $60,000),” said famous cryptocurrency analyst Willie Quoting Willy Woo’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) analysis, he said, “If history repeats, the Bitcoin Cycle Top is likely to reach a price of over $166,000 per coin.” .

(Neutral opinion)

① Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy at BTIG, a US securities firm, said, “Bitcoin will trade in the range of 50,000 to 65,000 dollars for the time being after the weekend crash.” He is watching a 50-day moving average of around $56,500. Told.

(Negative opinion)

① CoinDesk pointed out that the attempt to break through bitcoin, which led to a record high above $60,000 on the 13th, ended in failure. The slowdown in the upper momentum of the daily and weekly charts shows that profits continued to be realized during the bitcoin rally. Explained. The relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is currently oversold, which usually leads to a price recovery, as was the case on April 8th and March 25th, CoinDesk added.

② “Bitcoin’s next target is $69,000,” said Katie Stockton, senior technology strategist at Fairlead Securities. “If Bitcoin closes below the 50-day moving average for two days in a row, it will support $42,000. It can go down to,” he pointed out.

③ Cryptocurrency analyst Rakesh Upadhyay said, “If you cross the 20th exponential moving average (EMA, $58,775), the first signs of bullishness will appear. This move back to the record high of $64,849.27,” said Rakesh Upadhyay. It will increase the likelihood of testing. However, if the EMA on the 20th is not overcome, the likelihood of a retest of $50,460 will increase. If the sell-off continues, the price of bitcoin could drop to $43,006.77.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

Bitcoin’s daily market price (see Figure 5-1), which had plummeted, is expected to technically form a pair bottom and turn upward. In the big picture, 1) the uptrend is being maintained, and 2) from the on-chain indicator, the transaction volume has declined the most recently and has already formed a low two days ago, so there is a possibility to check the low once more and then try to rebound. Big.

In addition, considering that the kimchi premium index also fell when the bitcoin price fell and the exchange’s bitcoin balance dropped the previous day (see “Analysis of the bitcoin balance of all exchanges” on page 15), the bitcoin price will rebound sooner or later. It seems likely to try.

However, since today is the expiration date of the daily options of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange, intraday fluctuations are expected according to the option position.As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the estimated settlement price for both stocks is 56,000 each as of 14:00 It was predicted to be in the dollar and $2,160 levels. It seems that it is necessary to prepare for an intraday decline as it is characterized by a strong put option and a strengthening of the downside (see’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15).

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change on the day of $55,793. Currently, the bitcoin market price has fallen below this price since the market price of the day and is rebounding at the bottom of the Bollinger Band, so the time to buy is 1) when it rises above the bottom of the Bollinger Band 2) when $54,831 recovers 3) when the market price on the day or $55,793 recovers. I can. However, if it does not exceed $55,793, or if it breaks from the bottom of the Bollinger Band again, you will have to liquidate the purchase and wait and see. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis <Weakness>

As of 14 o’clock on the 20th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’active selling’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, one of the oscillator indicators in Upbit was’Buy’, 5’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’ opinions and’Sell’ opinions, and the moving average indicators are 4’Buy’ and 8 It was summarized as a’sell’ opinion as a suggestion’sell’.

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 1,’Sell’ is 7, and’Neutral’ is 0, sending a’active sell’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 4, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Sell’ with 8 cases.

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated “horror and greed index” was down one point from the previous day (74) to 73, maintaining the “greedy” stage. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 20, 14:00) <Weakness>

The price of traditional assets is on the rise, while the price of bitcoin is undergoing significant adjustments. As of 14:00 on the 20th, the US CME Bitcoin futures return to the beginning of the year was 77.64%, down 20.14% from last Thursday. During the same period, the oil futures, gold futures, and dollar index rose 0.59%, 1.76% and 0.61%, respectively, while the S&P 500 index fell 0.09%.

International oil prices rose on weak dollar and supply concerns. On the 19th (local time), the price of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) for May on the New York Commercial Exchange closed at $63.38 per barrel, up 0.4% (25 cents) from the battlefield. Oil prices are interpreted to have risen due to the recent weak dollar and the news that some oil fields in Libya have stopped supplying crude oil. The previous day, the international gold price fell, and the April gold price closed at $1770.60, down $9.60 (0.8%) compared to the previous trading day. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 20, 14:00) <Weakness>

As cryptocurrency prices were adjusted, most cryptocurrency prices fell. However, DOGE rose to the 5th place in the market cap. Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency created by software developers Billy Marcus and Jackson Palmer in 2013, was worth half a cent for most of its seven-year history. However, as Tesla CEO Elon Musk and NBA Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban mentioned Dogecoin one after another, the price soared. Dogecoin increased by about 7,039.65% this year, and nearly 18.000% from the same period in 2020.

As of 14 o’clock on the 20th, DOGE ranked first with 7,039.65%, 2nd with Binance Coin (BNB) with 1,181.42%, 3rd with Cardano (ADA) with 550.95% and Ripple (XRP) compared to the beginning of the year as of 14:00 on the 20th. ) Ranked 4th with 416.11% and Polkadot (DOT) 5th with 285.94%.

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <weakness>

Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.

If you look at indicators 1 and 2 (BTC, ETH spot trading volume) in Figure 10, it can be seen that the volume has decreased compared to the previous day’s trading volume, and in indicators 3 and 4, the total quantity sold is higher than the total number of purchases. In addition, as the price volatility indicator is neutral for Bitcoin and downward for Ethereum, it seems difficult to increase the price of the day. However, since the trading volume has declined the most in recent years and has already formed a low two days ago, it is highly likely that it will attempt to rebound after checking the low again.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <Neutral>

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have entered the adjustment zone, but the direction of the kimchi premium index of the two stocks has also declined, so there is no situation to be concerned that stocks and indices are reversed. Of course, it maintains a high level and is within the range of interest, but we believe that the rising trend of cryptocurrencies including bitcoin has sufficient conditions to maintain.

③ Analysis of the balance of Bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <Strengthening>

Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. It can be seen that the bitcoin balance held by the entire exchange, which decreased once on the 7th, declined once again the previous day, and there was a mass purchase, and the time for bitcoin to rebound is expected to be imminent.

◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding pledges aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 65.80% at 10 o’clock in a falling position. The proportion remained at 61.40% at 14 o’clock, and on a premium basis, from 10 o’clock (call option) -15.95%: (put option) -35.39% to (call option) -13.91%: (put option) -32.04% It turns out that they are using a strategy to sell both options premiums. Therefore, it is analyzed that the option market participants are predicting that the market will decline in the short term, while using a selling strategy that expects a decrease in the higher premium.

On the other hand, in the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of pending contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the down position was 13.27% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts. The proportion remained at 12.17% at 14 o’clock, and the premium standard changed from 10 o’clock (call option) 1.17%: (put option) -15.48% to (call option)-8.38%: (put option) 0.27%. The market is expected to decline ahead of the payment due.

◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 20th)

◇Deribit Bitcoin options status (as of 14:00 on the 20th)

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