[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Mid-term prospects mixed with Bitcoin’s entering a short-term rebound

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>

Bitcoin price, which seemed to recover $50,000 at once, is weakening after a day of rising. It seems to be a short-term sale digestion process as it is gradually being pushed down while reducing the amount of trading, but investors’ sentiment in the downtrend is uncomfortable because the plunge a few days ago.

It is interpreted that the rise in bitcoin price is due to the reviving the attractiveness of risky assets as the rise in US Treasury yields subsided, and the positive movements and comments of major institutions related to bitcoin continued. In addition, Citigroup’s strategists said in their report that Bitcoin will play a larger role in the global financial system, and that it could become the currency of choice for international trade in the next few years also seems to have played a positive role. However, there are also increasing opinions of experts who believe that this uptrend will not last long. (Refer to’Analysis of major media and market experts’ on page 6)

In the US New York Stock Market, the rise in US Treasury yields subsided, and expectations for economic recovery outpaced inflation concerns, all of the three indexes rose the most in a few months. The Dow Index was almost 4 months, the S&P 500 was 9 months, and the Nasdaq 1 month. Recorded the maximum daily rise in the. On the 1st (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average (Dow Index) surged 603.14 points (1.95%) compared to the previous length, closing at 31535.51.

As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $31,745.60, the 24-hour trading volume is about $54.5 billion, and the market cap is about $96.66 billion. The total cryptocurrency market cap is $1.483 trillion, and the Bitcoin market cap share is 60.9%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 1.72% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 1.58% compared to the previous day, making altcoins stronger than bitcoin, and bitcoin’s market cap decreased by 1.81% compared to the previous day. Its share decreased by 0.09% compared to the previous day, which means that altcoin’s decline is somewhat less than that of bitcoin in the market as a whole.

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that started with a strong rise turned to weakness in about 30 minutes, and attempted to turn upward as a buying trend was introduced, but it was analyzed that the decline also increased as the selling trend spread throughout the market. . W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -2.44%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -2.58%, WLC, an index focused on large stocks, is -2.47%, and WMC, a medium-sized stock-oriented index- The WSC, a 2.21% small stock-oriented index, recorded -1.81%.

As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume for the last 24 hours was 51%:49%, and the buy ratio was high, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to be strong on average. . (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis for bitcoin futures was around +1.0, and the basis for Ethereum futures was around +1.85, maintaining the contango status. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. March futures traded at $49,057.5, an increase of $187.5 (+0.38%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price fell 1.30% from the previous day to 557,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.01% to 1.769,000 won, and Polkadot (DOT) rose 1.06% to 40,950. Hit the circle. Ripple (XRP) fell 2.17% from the previous day to 495 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell 0.26% to 568,000 won, Ada (ADA) fell 5.08% to 1,400 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) fell 2.86% to 475 won. , Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 32,910 won, a 4.34% increase from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 166,650 won, down 1.72%.

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is on the rise of 8 out of the top 10 market caps as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $48,732.57, up 5.30% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) rose 7.67% to $1,551.92, and Cardano (ADA) fell 5.36% to $1.20. Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 10.39% from the previous day to $246.40, Polkadot (DOT) rose by 7.14% to $35.91, Ripple (XRP) rose by 2.98% to $0.4329, and Chainlink (LINK) rose by 14.79% to $28.75. Litecoin (LTC) rose 3.89% to $172.52, and Stellar (XLM) rose 3.95% to $0.4179.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>

Market experts disagree over bitcoin prices, which have been adjusted in recent days, whether this is a small price correction or the beginning of a deeper decline. Ascendants argue that the adjustment will not be long, based on the on-chain indicators, unit prices that have recently been accumulating in large quantities by institutions, and their steady buying trend. However, analysts who are concerned about mediation are usually based on technical analysis. Technically, it is clear that this is an overbought period, and issues related to U.S. Treasury bonds are likely to adversely affect the bitcoin price, so conservative response is necessary.

(Positive opinion)

① Glassnode co-founder and on-chain analyst Rafael Schultze-Kraft said, “Recently, illiquid bitcoin out of the circulating supply of bitcoin has surpassed the circulating supply for the first time in three years. Currently, 14.5 million BTC is illiquid. On the other hand, there are only 4 million bitcoins in a liquid state,” he said. “The lack of liquidity shows that investors continue to accumulate bitcoins. This means that investors believe that bitcoins will continue to grow.” .

② Citigroup said, “It is at an inflection point between whether virtual assets including bitcoin are accepted as mainstream or not as a means of speculation,” and “There are many risks and obstacles that hinder the development of bitcoin, but it can be a currency for international trade.” I evaluated it. He then diagnosed, “With the entry of institutional investors, trust has improved, and it shows better functions compared to existing payments, but some problems need to be solved in order to be widely accepted.” As tasks, he pointed out security and eco-friendliness.

③ Cryptocurrency analyst Lex Moskovski said on Twitter, “Miners have started accumulating bitcoin from yesterday. Miners have sold bitcoin for the past two months. But as of yesterday (27th),” The miner’s position has changed to positive (+),” he said.

④Tom Lee, founder and chief analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, a US investment research firm, said in a recent tweet, “Trice adjustment is the history and DNA of assets like Bitcoin. Not surprisingly, this adjustment doesn’t affect bitcoin’s fair value. Bitcoin will go up to $100,000,” he said. “Now is the ideal time to buy bitcoin.” said.

(Neutral opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Aayush Jindal said, “In order for the BTC/USD pair to move to the positive area in the near future, it must break through $47,000 and $48,000, and if it exceeds this price range, it will continue to be strong up to $50,000. “Conversely, if you don’t cross the $47,000 and $48,000 hurdles, you can test the $45,000, $43,000, and $42,000 support in turn.”

② Cryptocurrency analyst Rakesh Upadhyay said, “If Bitcoin bulls (buying forces) push the BTC price above the 20th exponential moving average (EMA, $47,441), it could rise to $52,000. “However, if the EMA collapses on the 20th, the BTC/USD pair price can be pushed to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA, $41,066), and if the downtrend continues after that, it will retreat to the intraday low of $38,000 on March 8. I can,” he analyzed. “As Bitcoin (BTC) prices have been adjusted in the last few days, investors are wondering if this is a small retreat or the beginning of a deeper decline,” he said. “However, the accumulation (purchase) of bitcoin by miners and institutions continues. It is becoming, and it is unlikely that the bear market will continue,” he added.

(Negative opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Michael Van Defov said that a similar move could be repeated as Bitcoin fell to $43,000 after being blocked by the $48,000 resistance recently and returned to the $48,000 level due to buying pressure. In the process, the possibility of a temporary drop of around 20% was expected. He pointed out that if Bitcoin fails to maintain its current support level of $45,000, it could fall in the $37,000 to $40,000 range.

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Weakness>

Bitcoin daily market price (see Figure 6), which started strong following the surge the previous day, is falling again as it deviated from the moving average on the 20th and 10th in the aftermath of the short-term sales opening following the surge. Fortunately, there is not a lot of trading volume (refer to “Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Volume on the Day” on page 12), so if the market price approaches the moving average of the 5th after some adjustment is completed, it is expected that the low-priced buying trend will inflow and turn to an upward trend. .

The short-term trend can be expected to rise, but since the daily market has diverged with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the medium-term trend of at least 1 to 3 months is expected to undergo an adjustment period. Therefore, it is recommended to proceed to liquidate the volume after obtaining sufficient profits during the rebound to around the $52,000 level. (The estimated timing of the start of decline and the estimated price of reaching the end of the decline by simulation will be provided to Aimrich paid members only through our experts)

Today is also the expiration date for Bitcoin and Ethereum daily options on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the same-day payment price was predicted to be about $47,300 and $1,440, respectively. In the case of Bitcoin, this price is near the moving average of 5 days, and Ethereum is near the moving average of 60 days.

Binance’s BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT prices calculated by the institute’s quant program for the day are $48,109 and $1,517, respectively. For both stocks, the current price is between the market price of the day and the price of a significant change, so you have to wait and see if the market recovers the market price of the day or supports and rebounds in the material price. Therefore, the buying conditions are: 1) support for the 5-day moving average, 2) support for US$48,109 or recovery after a breakout 3) market price recovery on the same day. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical Analysis

As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were found to be’Buy’ and’Active Buy’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, Upbit came out with five’buy’ and one’sell’ and two’neutral’ opinions and’buy’ opinions among the oscillator indicators, and the moving average indicators were 11’buy’ and one. It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion as a suggestion’sell’.

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 6,’Sell’ is 2, and’Neutral’ is 2, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ with 10, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ into two.

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on March 2) <Neutral>

The US CME Bitcoin futures price, which had plummeted as the bitcoin price entered a rebound, is gradually finding stability. As of 14:00 on the 2nd, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year was 54.90%, up 0.30% from last Thursday, maintaining the No. 1 ranking among valuation assets. The second place was oil futures, but it plunged 5.42%.

US Treasury prices showed mixed trend as central banks recently sought to curb the steep increase in Treasury yields, and gradually stabilized from last week’s tumble. The value of the dollar turned to strong, paying attention to the trend of US Treasury yields. The rise in US Treasury yields, which triggered the strength of the dollar, has slowed, but investors’ bets that US growth and inflation will accelerate. Oil prices closed down due to concerns about slowing demand for crude oil in China and the possibility of increasing production in oil producing countries.

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on March 2) <Neutral>

As bitcoin prices rebound, most cryptocurrency prices are also finding stability. While Binance Coin (BNB)’s growth rate slowed, Cardano (ADA) surpassed Binance Coin and rose to 3rd place in the market cap, and Stellar (XLM) re-entered the top 10. Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) fell to 7th place, falling more than 18% over the past 7 days. As of 14:00 on the 2nd, Cardano (ADA) ranked first with 607.72%, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked second with 569.98%, Polkadot (DOT) ranked third with 340.55%, and Stellar (XLM) ranked 221.72% with 221.72%. 4th place and LINK ranked 5th with 137.65%.

◇Bitcoin on-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of Bitcoin transaction volume on the day <Neutral>

Analyzing the trading volume of BTC/USD’s on-chain data on the same day makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Index 1 in Figure 13 shows the spot trading volume of BTCUSD, BTCUSD or BTCUSDC on 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini). Indicator 2 shows the trading volume of BTCUSD or XBTUSD indefinite futures on 7 derivatives exchanges (Binance Futures, OKX Futures, OKX Futures, Huobi Futures, FTX Futures, Kraken Futures, Delibit, BitMEX) in real time. Sum up and display.

Bitcoin, which recovered to the moving average on the 20th, is falling as the trading volume is reduced compared to the previous day. (Refer to Index 1 in Figure 13) However, as futures trading volume does not increase, it is not a sign of a sharp decline. (Refer to Indicator 2 in Figure 13)

In addition, looking at the index in Figure 14, it can be seen that bitcoin is currently in the process of digesting the sale because the price is not pushed much from the peak even though the total number of sales is higher than the total number of purchases. However, as price volatility is moving in the downward direction, it seems difficult to close the rise. Today is also the expiration date for daily Bitcoin and Ethereum options on the DRBT exchange, and the expected settlement price for the two stocks is estimated at $47,300 and $1,520, respectively, as of 14:00.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

As Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeted, there was a crossing with the Kimchi premium index. However, as the prices of the two stocks rebounded, they were relocated after a day of crossing, and the direction of the kimchi premium index seems to be turning into a stable zone so that the pattern is clearly different compared to the crossing point in early February. Therefore, although it is still above ‘0’, the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum is truly entering a phase, so from a mid- to long-term buying point of view, it is not a situation that is of great concern.

③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators after bitcoin plunge <Strengthening>

Figure 17 shows the trend of the Bitcoin balance held by major exchanges. It can be seen that the transaction volume has increased a lot as the recent bitcoin plunged after the all-time high, which appears to have been deposited to the exchange to dispose of the bitcoin held in an external wallet. As can be seen from the figure, as of 14:00 on the 2nd, it is believed that most of the increased volume has been exhausted. Therefore, unless there is an inflow of additional selling volume, there will be no significant drop in trend for the time being.

Figure 18, contrary to Figure 17, shows the amount of money that has been leaked from Coinbase, the US cryptocurrency exchange, as the bitcoin price has fallen from an all-time high. The average purchase price was about $48,000, which is a very positive factor in the rise of bitcoin prices, as it can be viewed as a long-term investor, mainly for institutions and others.

◇Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Strengthening>

Looking at the analysis result (see Figure 18) of the percentage of outstanding pledges aggregated from the bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com), the percentage of rising positions is 10 o’clock -4.41 based on the number of contracts. % To 25.95% as of 14 o’clock. In addition, the premium ratio of the call option and the put option, which was 5.95%:3.93% at 10 o’clock, is 4.07%:-32.37%, which shows that the selling ratio of the put option has increased significantly. Therefore, it is expected that the Bitcoin price will rise after the bottom is formed on the afternoon of the day.

contact@blockcast.cc