[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Should prepare for further decline after market rebound

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>

As the cryptocurrency market continued to decline day after day, the market capitalization of Bitcoin fell again below $1 trillion. As of 14 o’clock on the 25th, the market cap of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is 99.3 billion dollars. This is the third correction since the Bitcoin rally began in mid-December, and is about 12.5% ​​down from the all-time high of $60,100 on March 13th to the low.

Bitcoin (BTC), the number one cryptocurrency market capitalization, plunged again by about $5,000 after Tesla’s announcement of the introduction of bitcoin payments on the previous day was a good thing, rising about $3,000 to the level of $57,000 once. Although most cryptocurrencies are rising due to the inflow of a low-priced buying trend, it is time for investors to pay special attention as the selling trend is still worries about a further decline.

Last night, the US New York Stock Market closed lower as the heads of the US economy expressed optimism, but the selloff of large tech stocks pressed the entire stock market. On the 24th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 industrial average index fell by 0.01% from the previous trading day, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index fell by 0.55%, and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index fell by 2.01%.

As of 14 o’clock on the 25th, the price of bitcoin based on the coin market cap is $53,011.85, the 24-hour trading volume is about $79.9 billion, and the market cap is about $900.3 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.64 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 60.0%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 11.2%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap increased 0.79% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin increased 0.66% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin stronger than Altcoin, and the market cap of Bitcoin increased 0.86% compared to the previous day. Its share increased by 0.06% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that the rate of increase in bitcoin is greater than the average rate of increase in altcoins.

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, it is analyzed that the market is continuing a mixed trend, such as a decline at around 10:30 and then up again around 14:00, while small stocks are not rising due to a strong selling trend. . As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +0.78%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.91%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, is +0.79%, and an index centered on medium-sized stocks. WMC, which is +0.55%, recorded -1.08% for WSC, an index centered on small stocks.

As of 14:00 on the 25th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours of the last 24 hours was 52%:48%, and the buy ratio was high, and as of 14:00, the long/short ratio of each exchange was analyzed to be strong in selling. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures is around -35.0, and the basis of Ethereum futures is around -0.25. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is falling. March futures traded at $52,960.0, down $1685.0 (-3.08%) from the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices

As of 14:00 on the 25th, the domestic bitcoin (BTC) price declined 0.45% from the previous day to 6,4477,000 won, Ethereum (ETH) fell 0.87% to 1.942,000 won, and Polkadot (DOT) was 37,500 won, the same as the previous day. Recorded. Ada (ADA) rose 4.55% from the previous day to 1,385 won, Ripple (XRP) rose 1.34% from the previous day to 602 won, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell 1.51% to 570,900 won, and Stellar Lumen (XLM) fell 1.12%. 442 won, Chainlink (LINK) is trading at 30,920 won, up 0.16% from the previous day, and Litecoin (LTC) is trading at 217,000 won, down 0.50%.

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market price based on CoinMarket Cap is falling for eight of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price is $53,012.55, down 3.06% from the same time the day before. Ethereum (ETH) fell 5.71% to $1,595.63, while Binance Coin (BNB) fell 4.04% to $246.07. Cardano (ADA) rose 0.76% from the previous day to $1.12, Polkadot (DOT) fell 11.70% to $30.55, Ripple (XRP) fell 9.87% to $0.4995, Uniswap (UNI) fell 10.82% to $27.44, Theta (THETA) fell 17.21% to 11.94 dollars, while Litecoin (LTC) fell 7.60% to 177.97 dollars.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>

According to a survey conducted by Germany’s largest financial company Deutsche Bank, 52% of respondents predict that the price of bitcoin will be below $60,000 this year, showing that most investors have limited bitcoin price growth. In particular, according to the analysis of major analysts, the decline in the bitcoin price is also affecting the cryptocurrency market, which is also a factor in the recent financial market uncertainty. However, still many bitcoin advocates emphasize that bitcoin price movements are different from the past, the basis for which is the growing interest in institutional finance such as Visa, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan.

(Positive opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Timothy Peterson refuted, “There are often crashes, but they are not always related to the bear market.”

②CryptoQuant CEO Joo Ki-young said, “The bull market is not over yet. We are preparing to buy bitcoin lows.”

③Babi Lee, the founder of cryptocurrency exchange BTCC, told CNBC the day before, “2021 will be a bull market for bitcoin that comes once every three or four years.” I can,” he insisted. However, he advised, “it looks like a bubble will burst,” and “investors should know that bitcoin can drop by up to 80% to 90% from an all-time high.”

④ Cryptocurrency trader Peter Brandt also said in a recent interview with CoinDesk, a cryptocurrency specialty media, that “Bitcoin will fluctuate in the middle, but will continue the price rally in the (long term).” It is expected to reach $18-200,000 in the fourth quarter.”

⑤Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, predicted that Bitcoin’s splendid rally march will not stop. “Over the next 12 months, the dollar supply will increase by 40% due to the currency depreciation,” he said. “The continuing currency devaluation will make Bitcoin a more attractive store of value.” “In addition to the currency devaluation, the digital nature of bitcoin and the increase in users will make the bitcoin inhalation stronger for companies.” “Considering the macroeconomic background, the bitcoin price will exceed $100,000 by February 2022. It is expected to be possible.”

⑥ Marion Labore, an analyst at Deutsche Bank and an economist at Harvard University, said in a recent report (Bitcoin’s current valuation is pricing in a shift toward cross-border digital currencies), “The market cap of Bitcoin (BTC) is It has surpassed $1 trillion and can no longer be ignored as it is open to the possibility of a continuous rise, and the next two or three years will be the turning point of Bitcoin.” However, he predicts that “the bitcoin price will remain’super volatile’,” he warned, “a few additional large-scale purchases or market exits could have a major impact on the supply-demand balance.”

(Negative opinion)

① At a meeting hosted by the International Bank for Payments (BIS), Chairman Powell said that cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin are not suitable as means of value storage and payment, and that private cryptocurrencies are regarded as speculative tools. He also reaffirmed its position that the Fed will not be in a hurry regarding the digital dollar being developed, and said, above all, it was not clear whether the central bank digital currency (CBDC) was needed. Powell added that the Fed would not proceed with a fully digitized dollar without Congressional support, and that Congressional support would ideally come from the form of endorsing the law.

② Norwegian central bank governor Oeystein Olsen said that Bitcoin should not be recognized as an alternative currency. “It is difficult to think that Bitcoin will replace the current currency controlled by the central bank,” he said. “Bitcoin is excessively resource-intensive and expensive. Above all, it cannot maintain stability. The most basic attribute and task of central banks and currencies is the value of money and the stability of the system. On the other hand, Bitcoin lacks this point.”

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Weakness>

Elon Musk’s announcement that Tesla’s electric car subscription fee can be paid in bitcoin was also a temporary effect, but the daily bitcoin price (see Figure 5-1) reached the 57,000 dollar mark the previous day and then showed great volatility, falling to 52,000 USD. In addition, as the low-priced buying trend inflows, the sell-off trend has subsided to some extent. However, the appearance of the technical charts suggests that the rebound will be limited, and bitcoin prices are expected to determine the next direction at least after reaching the bottom of the Bollinger Band in the future.

If the rebound is strong at the bottom of the Bollinger Band, it will go straight to the direction 2, but if not, keep in mind the possibility of entering into the cloud zone of the 1st Ichimoku balance table, so the trend will not be until the price rises completely above the 20th moving average line. It would be wise to think and respond to the bottom of the Bollinger Band.

In addition, according to the analysis of the trend of bitcoin price on page 13 and the Korean premium index, the possibility of transition to a downtrend is very high due to the crossing phenomenon of both bitcoin and Ethereum with the kimchi premium index. I recommend it.

Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was predicted to be around US$54,000 and US$1,640, respectively, as of 14:00. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the day’ on page 14)

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $53,734. The bitcoin market price was pushed to the lowest price the previous day and is below $53,734 after recovering the market price of the day.Therefore, the condition for buying the same day is only when it exceeds $53,734, and if it cannot exceed this price, or if it exceeds the market price, buy or sell. We must withhold and watch. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section. (You can check the predicted price and countermeasures for Bitcoin decline simulated by the Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute through Aim Rich experts.)

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14 o’clock on the 25th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’sell’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, Upbit’s oscillator indicators of’Buy’ and’Sell’ of 6, and’Neutral’ of 1 came out and an opinion of’Strong Selling’ came out, and the moving average indicator was’Buy’ of 6 and It was summarized as a’neutral’ opinion with six’sell’.

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 1,’Sell’ is 6, and’Neutral’ is 1, sending a’active sell’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 6, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Neutral’ with six.

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Weakness>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’Fear and Greed Index’ recorded 60, down 5 points from the previous day (65). Although the two-heartedness continues to shrink, it has maintained its current level of greed. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of March 25, 14:00) <Weakness>

As of 14:00 on the 25th, due to the drop in bitcoin price the day before, the US CME bitcoin futures yield fell 3.04% from the beginning of the year to 73.20% compared to the previous Tuesday. During the same period, the dollar index rose 0.88%, and gold prices, the S&P 500 index and oil futures continued to adjust.

The previous day’s dollar index (DXY) reached its highest level in four months. The US 10-year Treasury bond rate fell slightly to 1.62% from 1.7% last week, which was the highest of the year. International oil prices Oil prices rebounded sharply in the wake of the grounding of a super-large container ship that occurred in the Suez Canal in Egypt, which connects the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea. West Texas crude oil (WTI) for delivery in May on the New York Commercial Exchange recorded $61.18 per barrel, up nearly 6% compared to the previous trading day. It recovered to the $60 per barrel level in one day. This accident is said to be the cause of the blockage of the Suez Canal, stopping the passage of oil tankers moving in the Gulf waters. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of March 25, 14:00) <Weakness>

Compared to the slight adjustment of the bitcoin price, it was found that the price of major cryptocurrencies fell significantly. The decline was remarkable as the yields of the 1st-5th ranked stocks were high. Meanwhile, Theta Token (THETA), the unique cryptocurrency of the video streaming blockchain network THETA, rose to the 9th place in the last 7 days, with a nearly 100% surge. Theta acquired a second patent on the design of decentralized blockchain-based video and data transmission from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) on the 16th, and has since hit a record high.

As of 14:00 on the 25th, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked first with 545.63%, 2nd with Theta Token (THETA) with 512.79%, 3rd with Cardano (ADA) with 501.86%, and Uniswap. UNI) ranked 4th with 422.15% and Polkadot (DOT) 5th with 224.95%.

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <weakness>

Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.

If you look at indicators 1 and 2 in Figure 10, the trading volume of BTC did not increase and the trading volume of ETH decreased, showing the possibility that the bitcoin price on the day will close without being pushed back, and the possibility that Ethereum will close down. . This can also be confirmed in indicators 3 and 4, which shows that the price volatility indicator of BTC is progressing in a horizontal direction, and ETH is declining.

Technically, both stocks deviated from the lower trend line in the triangular convergence pattern, Bitcoin is facing the 60-day moving average line, and Ethereum has already deviated from the 60-day moving average line. Both can be said to be a strong downtrend, so investors’ attention is required.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <weak>

As Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell and the kimchi premium index rose, a crossover occurred between the two. This is a typical trend reversal phenomenon. However, when the trend is strong as in recent years, it is necessary to observe whether it is continuously maintained because there are many cases where the crossover phenomenon is resolved normally even within a day. In other words, if the phenomenon persists for more than two days, investors who have started investing at more than $40,000 need to organize their holdings and watch the market trend.

③ Analysis of mass transaction volume according to on-chain indicators <strong>

Figure 12-1 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by major exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. This is because more people withdraw outside the exchange for long-term investment than those who want to sell on the exchange. Although the market price has fallen, no remarkable increase in balance has yet been confirmed.

◇Analysis of the share of non-settled Bitcoin options on the day

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 16.52% at 10 o’clock in a falling position. At 14 o’clock, it increased to 55.71%. In addition, the premium standard was changed from 4.11% (buy call option): 21.95% (buy put option) to -2.44% (sell call option): -71.92% (sell put option) at 10 o’clock. Movement is expected.

On the other hand, in the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of pending contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the number of contracts was 36.26% at 10 o’clock. At 14 o’clock, it was converted to an upside position of 104.84%, and a massive redemption of the selling of put options has increased the likelihood of attempting an uptrend before the expiration time. For reference, the expected payment price for the Bitcoin and Ethereum options on the day is estimated at $54,000 and $1,640, respectively, as of 14:00.

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