◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>
As the buying trend for Bitcoin (BTC), which is the number one cryptocurrency market capitalization, is weakening, there is concern that the current correction market will continue for a considerable period of time. This is not just because of the decrease in bitcoin trading volume, but because the Ethereum trading volume has exceeded the bitcoin trading volume. The reversal of the trading volume between the two assets is extremely rare, but this is also the reason that cryptocurrency investors, who mainly focused on bitcoins, are gradually increasing their investment destinations with various altcoins. However, if the price of bitcoin, which still accounts for more than 40% dominance, falls, the price of other cryptocurrencies is inevitably affected.
As of 14:00 on the 27th, Bitcoin (BTC), the number one cryptocurrency market cap based on the coin market cap, is declining to $37,538.26, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $50.6 billion and a market cap of about $702.9 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is USD 1.655 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 42.6%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 18.9%. As of 14:00, major stocks with the highest decline rates are Uniswap (UNI, -10.12%), AAVE (AAVE, -10.32%), Polka Dot (DOT, -9.65%), and Chainlink (LINK, -9.47%). to be.
Last night, the US stock market ended higher as expectations for an economic resumption grew despite comments from major central bankers regarding tapering (reducing asset purchases). Consumer goods and small and mid-cap stocks, which benefit from the economic resumption, showed strong performance as market concerns over inflation were somewhat subdued. On the 26th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 indexes rose by 0.03% and 0.19%, respectively, from the previous trading day, and the technology stock-oriented NASDAQ index was also 0.59%. Rose.
The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 5.92% from the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 7.01% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin less falling than altcoins, and Bitcoin’s market cap decreased by 4.45% compared to the previous day. Bitcoin’s share increased by 1.56% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that Bitcoin had a low average decline in altcoins.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that started weakly seems to have a strong inflow of the low-end buying trend around 12 o’clock, and it is analyzed that the sell-off for altcoins is stronger than that of bitcoin. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -6.05%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is -7.23%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, -0.85%, and a medium-sized stock-oriented index WMC recorded +0.92%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +0.18%.
As of 14 o’clock on the 27th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours was 47%:53%, showing a strong selling trend, and as of 14 o’clock, the long/short ratio of each exchange was also analyzed to be strong. . (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of Bitcoin futures was around -61.5, and the basis of backwardation and Ethereum futures was around +0.40. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is falling. May futures traded at $37,657.5, down 887.5 dollars (-2.30%) from the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>
As of 14:00 on the 27th, the cryptocurrency market price is falling. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price declined 3.45% from the previous day to 45.69 million won, and Ethereum (ETH) was trading at 3.257,000 won, down 6.19%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.
In the global cryptocurrency market based on coin market cap at the same time, 9 of the top 10 stocks in market capitalization as of the last 24 hours are falling. International Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell 4.74% from the same time the day before to $37,538.26, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 5.90% to $2,668.33. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.
◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>
Market experts believe that the current bitcoin price movement lies in the high volatility section of the $30,000 to $50,000 range, and it is expected that the first rebound will be broken and the buying trend will inflow again when bitcoin tests the lowest price again. . As a peculiar phenomenon that appeared this week, there is a phenomenon in which the Ether transaction volume has greatly exceeded the Bitcoin transaction volume, and experts argue that this is evidence that cryptocurrency investors who have focused solely on Bitcoin are increasingly turning their eyes to a variety of altcoins. In addition, from an investor’s point of view, he has a number of options to find the right cryptocurrency. In particular, Ether has great potential.
(Positive opinion)
① According to Cryptoquant’s CEO, CryptoQuant’s CEO, “According to Cryptoquant’s stablecoin ratio MACD index (the ratio of stablecoin holdings to bitcoin holdings in the exchange), the overall exchange has more stablecoin holdings than the bitcoin holdings. It turns out a lot. This means that there are enough bullets loaded for Bitcoin to rise,” he said.
② CoinDesk, a media specializing in cryptocurrency, interpreted it as “a sign that long-term investors continued to buy at low prices during the period when the bitcoin price fell from $58,000 to $30,000.”
③ Into the Block, a data science company specializing in cryptocurrency, said, “Even in the crash of cryptocurrency last week, bitcoin addresses did not sell bitcoins. As of the 26th, 21.99 million, equivalent to 57.46% of bitcoin addresses, were BTC for more than a year in BTC for over a year. It was found to have long-term possession,” he analyzed.
④Bloomberg Intelligence’s product strategist Mike McGlon said, “The factor that triggered this adjustment was the carbon footprint (in short, environmental issues). However, excessive energy use is the strength of the world’s largest decentralized network. Bitcoin is becoming more and more environmentally friendly. “It’s going,” he diagnosed as “Bitcoin is heading for $100,000.”
⑤Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, observed that the Bitcoin ETF (listed index fund) will be launched in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. “The chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler is a very smart man,” he predicted, “I will approve the Bitcoin ETF sooner or later.” He added, “It is absurd to approve grayscale bitcoin trust products while disallowing bitcoin ETFs.”
◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price
The daily bitcoin market price (see Figure 5-1), which started rebounding from the 19th, is converging at the $38,000 level. Currently, it is technically supporting the moving average for the 5th, but it is being pushed from the previous day’s high, so it is highly likely that the market price will decline to confirm the daily low.
Looking at indicator 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10, a blackout occurred as the sell volume increased, and in indicator 2 (ETH spot trading volume), the buy volume is expected to increase compared to the previous day, but according to indicator 4, net selling on the same day. It can be seen that the quantity is falling because the quantity is higher. As price volatility for both stocks is heading towards neutral, the market price for the day is expected to weaken. In the event of a decline, the 1st expected rebound is expected to be $33,200 and the 2nd expected rebound is expected to be around $31,200. If a sell-off outside this price range appears, you will have to close all positions and wait and see. Of course, if each branch rebounds, it will be a good opportunity to buy, so it is recommended that you try to buy in divisions, focusing on stocks that recorded a high rate of increase during the first rebound. (For stocks with a high growth rate and how to buy low prices for each item, please consult with an Aimrich expert. Call 1577-0471 or KakaoTalk Plus Friend: Aimrich (Customer Center operating hours 9:00~18:00, excluding weekends and holidays))
Today is the expiration date for the daily options of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the expected settlement price for the two stock options is estimated at $39,000 and $2,750. While the bearish trend continues after the morning, it is occasionally rebounding from the lows due to settlement prices, but given that the strike price option below $39,000 for put options remains strong, it seems difficult for Bitcoin to turn upward. In the case of Ethereum options, it is expected that both option premiums will decrease and move together according to the bitcoin price. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15)
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $39,294. Currently, the bitcoin price is below the market price of the day and $39,294, moving sideways between the moving average of the 5th and 10th. Therefore, the opportunity to buy on the same day is 1) when the 10-day moving average line price of the same day exceeds $38,390 and 2) the market price on the same day and $39,294 are broken. However, if it breaks above the 10-day moving average or the market price of $39,294 on the same day, you will have to sell the amount you bought and watch. In particular, short-term traders are advised to reduce their current holdings if they deviate from the 5-day moving average. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Weakness>
As of 14 o’clock on the 27th, the technical analysis of the daily price movements of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, were all found to be’active selling’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 3 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 8’Sell’, 0’Strong Sell’ opinions, and’Strong Sell’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is one’Buy’. And 11 cases were summarized as’sell’ opinions.
If you look at the detailed items of Binance, two of the oscillator indicators are’Buy’, 7’Sell’ and one’Neutral’, sending a’active sell’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ 3 cases, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Sell’ with 9 cases.
◆Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Weakness>
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated “horror and greed index” rose 5 points from the previous day (22) to 27, indicating a “fear” step up one step from the previous day. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as
◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of May 27, 14:00) <Neutral>
The 10-year water US Treasury bond rate rose slightly from 1.563% on the previous day to 1.577% on the same day, but fell from the middle of this month when it rose to 1.70% due to inflation concerns, and the dollar index fell 0.16% from last Tuesday. As interest rates remain stable and the dollar index lowers, the preference for risky assets is expected to remain stable for the time being. However, Bitcoin price still maintains high price volatility.
As of 14 p.m. on the 27th, the US CME Bitcoin futures’ return to the beginning of the year is 22.17%, down 3.82% from last Tuesday, and the S&P 500 index also fell 0.03%. Gold futures and oil futures rose 0.86% and 0.34%, respectively.
The day before, international oil prices rose on the news that crude oil stocks had declined. On the 26th (local time) at the New York Commercial Exchange, the price of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) for July closed at $66.21 per barrel, up 14 cents (0.2%) from the battlefield. It is interpreted that the news that the US crude oil stocks fell more than expected on this day offset all the declines and rebounded. The detailed rate of increase and rate of return of the comparative asset class are as follows.
◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of May 27, 14:00) <Strengthening>
As the market enters a rebound, most cryptocurrency prices are rising significantly. However, DOGE, which recorded a high rate of increase, is falling 274.47%. As of 14 o’clock on the 27th, DOGE ranked 1st with 5,897.89%, followed by Cardano (ADA) with 860.59%, 2nd with Binance Coin (BNB) with 846.07% and 3rd with Ripple (XRP) compared to the beginning of the year as of 14:00 on the 27th. ) Ranked 4th with 314.05% and Ethereum (ETH) 5th with 276.13%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <weak>
Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
Looking at indicator 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10, a blackout occurred as the sell volume increased, and in indicator 2 (ETH spot trading volume), the buy volume is expected to increase compared to the previous day, but according to indicator 4, net selling on the same day. It can be seen that the quantity is falling because the quantity is higher. As price volatility for both stocks is heading towards neutral, the market price for the day is expected to weaken.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <Neutral>
As Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rise differently, the gap between each kimchi premium index is also changing. As the Kimchi premium index of the two stocks is currently trending downward, concerns about a plunge are deemed to have ended.However, the bitcoin buying trend is not strong and the gap with the kimchi premium index is close, so it is necessary to pay attention to whether or not to cross again. see.
③ Analysis of the balance of Bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <Neutral>
Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. Bitcoin exchange balances, which had declined after May 17th, are expected to start increasing again from the 24th, which is expected to act as a burden on the price of Bitcoin. It seems that it is necessary to periodically check whether the increase in the exchange balance continues to increase. The same goes for Ethereum. (Refer to Figure 12-2)
◇ Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <weak>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from all bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 17.99% at 10 o’clock. The position proportion increased to 23.15% at 14:00, and at 10 o’clock (call option) 6.06% (down): (buy put option) 7.63% (down) to (call option) 9.35% (down):( Put options) 15.82% (down), while both options declined, the share of buys of put options increased. As a result, option market participants expect the market to remain weak on the day.
<Weak> In the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the number of contracts was weak at 22.16% at 10 o’clock. The position share increased to 25.98% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, 10 o’clock (call option) 15.50% (down): (put option) 4.62% (down) to (call option) 16.92% (down): (put) Options) 9.97% (down) Both options are expected to remain weak until the settlement of maturity (17:00) due to an increase in the proportion of purchases of put options amid an increase in the proportion of declines in both options.
◆Major Bitcoin futures status (as of 14:00 on the 27th)
◆DeriBit Bitcoin Options Status (As of 14:00 on the 27th)
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