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On December 19, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (December 9th to December 15th). The end of the statistical cycle of this week’s report happened to stop at the official completion of Bitcoin’s historic round of 20,000 USD On the eve of the breakout of the barrier, the results of the position adjustment presented in this weekly report are basically equivalent to the position holdings of various accounts when the market is officially welcoming the accelerated upward breakthrough of the market. Which types of accounts are still sensitive after a considerable period of high fluctuations Perceiving clues that the market is about to usher in a breakthrough is undoubtedly the biggest highlight of this week’s report.
The number of total positions (total open positions) further dropped from 11750 to 11370 in the latest data. This value has shown a fairly linear and continuous decline in the last three statistical periods. The decrease in the latest statistical period is basically The above is equivalent to the average level of the decrease in the previous two statistical periods, showing that the market is still carrying out the risk control lightening that has been insisted in the past period of time when the overall sentiment is relatively stable. This can also be understood as the breach of the $20,000 mark for the market It was quite an “surprise” for most investors.
In terms of sub-data, large-scale brokers’ long positions have further dropped from 544 to 492, and short positions have further increased from 11 to 26. In the context of recent position adjustments that clearly express risk control ideas In the latest statistical cycle, large institutions have carried out a clear net air-conditioning warehouse, and the adjustment range is even greater than that of previous statistical cycles. At present, the total amount of long positions in such accounts has dropped to a new low in nearly 12 weeks. At the same time, although the number of short positions is limited, they have also reached a new high in nearly 10 weeks. It can be seen that large institutions have made quite obvious “misjudgments” for this upward breakthrough in the market. Large institutions did not come up with the “hand of God” expected by the market before this historic moment.
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of leveraged fund accounts further dropped from 4365 to 3946, and the short position dropped sharply from 9,354 to 8,702. Compared with the clear net air-conditioning position of the broker’s account, the latest statistics of leveraged funds During the cycle, only long and short two-way simultaneous position reductions were still carried out. According to the results of position adjustments, it is a continuation of the previous risk control thinking to a greater extent. However, considering that the long position holdings of this type of account have been further reduced than after the adjustment It hit a new low of nearly 10 weeks, so it can be considered that the market’s breakthrough of the 20,000 mark also caught the leveraged fund by surprise.
In terms of large holdings, long positions fell slightly from 2063 contracts to 2027 contracts, and short positions simultaneously dropped from 177 contracts to 84 contracts. Although large accounts have similarly reduced their long and short two-way positions in the latest statistical cycle, it is worth emphasizing that this type of account is the only one of the four types of accounts in the last statistical cycle before Bitcoin breaks through 20,000. Among them, a type of account where the proportion of long positions has increased. In other words, the choices made by large accounts before accelerating the rise are more accurate than those of the two major types of institutional investors.
In terms of retail holdings, long positions fell from 3,403 to 3134, and short positions further rose from 506 to 606. The actions of retail investors in the latest statistical cycle are quite surprising. In the absence of a significant drop in the market, retail investors happened to choose a net air-conditioning warehouse that had not been seen for a month on the eve of the surge, and this time The firmness of the position adjustment is more clear than the fine adjustment of the position a month ago. It is rare for retail investors to usher in the result of a completely consistent position adjustment with the broker’s account, but from the perspective of the result, it is a standard “lose-loss”.
On the whole, there is no account that made accurate predictions before the arrival of the historical breakout market last week. Although the proportion of long positions held by large accounts has increased, it mainly benefits from the short positions of such accounts. Two weeks ago, it suffered a considerable reduction, so the current small position adjustments on short positions of such accounts will have a greater impact on the position ratio. After a successful “sneak attack” in the market, how various accounts will respond to this historical rise in the next statistical cycle? The results of the next weekly position holding report are even more exciting.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?
