The weekly futures trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell by more than 30% month-on-month, and the trading volume of options fell 45% and 35% respectively. Options holdings fell by about 10% from their peak last week, and Ethereum futures holdings fell 15%.
Written by: Karen
Weekly market dynamics
- Huobi launches OTC options business.
- Huobi launches FIL currency standard delivery contract.
- Binance lists TRX, ETC, FIL 1225 in the current quarter and 0326 currency-based delivery contracts in the second quarter.
Futures market
Overview of extreme market liquidation
In the past week (December 4th to 10th), Bitcoin’s high level retreated. Within half an hour from 7 o’clock this Wednesday, Bitcoin plummeted by US$400 to around US$18,300. During this period, Bitcoin liquidated by US$110 million. US$160 million was liquidated, and Bitcoin liquidated of US$242 million on the same day, and the entire network liquidated nearly US$400 million.
BitMEX, Binance, Bybit, Huobi and OKEx five exchanges’ Bitcoin futures liquidation data statistics, source: Coin
Trading volume
The statistical scope of Bitcoin futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bakkt, Bybit, CME, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx. The statistical scope of Ethereum futures includes BitMEX, Binance, Bitfinex, Bybit, Deribit, FTX, Huobi and OKEx.
Bitcoin’s weekly trading volume dropped by more than 20% last week. In the past week, it dropped by 35.66% from the previous week to 120.84 billion U.S. dollars. Among them, except for Bakkt, which increased by nearly 13% from the previous week, other exchanges all fell by more than 30%.
Daily trading volume of Bitcoin futures contracts, source: Skew
Ethereum’s weekly trading volume also dropped by 31.54% from the previous month to 40.628 billion US dollars.
Open positions in Ethereum futures, source: Skew
Open positions
Compared with the performance of trading volume, Bitcoin holdings continued to remain near the peak, a decrease of less than 3% from a week ago, and as of December 10, it was $6.743 billion.
Open positions in Bitcoin futures contracts, source: Skew
The value of Ethereum holdings dropped by more than 15% from the previous month to 1.491 billion US dollars, but it was still at a relatively high level.
Open positions in Ethereum futures, source: Skew
The trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts has fallen sharply from the highs at the end of November, which indicates that traders are currently inclined to take a wait-and-see attitude, but the data on Ethereum holdings shows that bulls are actively closing their positions, which may maintain a volatile downward trend in the short term .
Option market
Trading volume
The scope of Bitcoin options statistics includes Bakkt, Bit.com, CME, Deribit, Huobi, LedgerX and OKEx. The scope of Ethereum options statistics is Deribit, Huobi and OKEx.
The trading volume of Bitcoin options in the past week was approximately US$2.3 billion, a decrease of 44.68% from the previous week. Among them, the trading volume of Deribit, which accounted for 85% of the market share, decreased by 41.64%, OKEx, which accounted for more than 5%, decreased by 53.64%, and CME accounted for nearly With a 2% share, the trading volume dropped by over 43% from the previous month.
Bitcoin options daily trading volume, source: Skew
The weekly trading volume of Ethereum options dropped by 34.98% last week, and then fell by 35.11% to US$283 million in the past week.
Daily trading volume of Ethereum options, data source: Skew
Open positions
The open position of Bitcoin options decreased slightly after continuing to hit a record high last week. As of December 10, it was US$4.689 billion, a decrease of 9.17% from a week ago.
Open positions in Bitcoin options, source: Skew
Ethereum option holdings also fell by 12% from last week’s record high, reaching US$808 million as of December 10.
Open positions in Ethereum options, source: Skew
Although the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum’s option holdings has fallen, they are still at their peak levels.
Volatility
Bitcoin’s one-month realized volatility basically hit a new high (75%) in June this year on December 5, and then fell slightly, reaching 66% as of December 10.
From left to right are the realized volatility of Bitcoin one month and the implied volatility of Bitcoin one month ATM
The one-month realized volatility of Ethereum has gradually increased from around 50% at the end of October to 91% on December 10th. The current one-month at-the-money option implied volatility is 78%.
From left to right are the one-month realized volatility of Ethereum and the one-month ATM implied volatility of Bitcoin
Option volatility has nothing to do with option prices, but reflects the price changes of the option against the underlying asset. The realized volatility is the standard deviation of the price fluctuation range of the underlying asset in the past period of time calculated by the variance formula, and the implied volatility is the result calculated by the BS formula. Implied volatility measures market expectations of future volatility. An increase in implied volatility means a corresponding increase in the time value of the option, and vice versa means a decrease in the time value. In other words, if the volatility can be predicted more accurately, then you only need to buy when the volatility is high and sell when the volatility is low, and you can achieve better returns.
Option expiration
Today, 32,000 Bitcoin option contracts will expire, with a nominal value of nearly 569 million U.S. dollars, and 82,700 contracts will expire on December 25.
Bitcoin option expiration, source: Skew
In terms of Ethereum options, 138,600 contracts will expire today, with a nominal value of approximately US$74.84 million, and 677,000 contracts will expire on December 25.
Ethereum option expiration status, source: Skew
