◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <weak>
The overall price of cryptocurrency is falling as the sales volume increases in the market that once turned upward in the afternoon. As of 14:00 on the 6th, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the coin market cap is $57,228.14, the 24-hour trading volume is about $67.3 billion, and the market cap is about $1,699.3 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.379 trillion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 44.9%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 17.0%.
As the market share of bitcoin declines, the circulation market is rapidly progressing, and the yield between stocks is becoming more differentiated. Over the past two days, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Ethereum Classic (ETC) have been strong. Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum Classic rose to 54% and 46%, respectively, compared to the previous day at one time during the week. Bitcoin Cash is scheduled for a major update with a hard fork around May 15th (block height: 1,589,544,000), but Ethereum Classic doesn’t have any special materials. However, both stocks have in common that they are traded on the US investment app Robin Hood. Currently traded in Robin Hood are Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Bitcoin SV (BSV), Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin. It is a total of 7 sports including (DOGE).
Last night, the US stock market was mixed as fears of inflation grew and the shift from technology stocks to business cycles deepened. On the 5th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 indexes rose 0.29% and 0.07%, respectively, from the previous trading day, and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq index was 0.37%. Fell. The Dow index ended at an all-time high, rising for three consecutive trading days on this day.
The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 0.50% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 0.59% compared to the previous day, making altcoins relatively weaker than bitcoin, and the market cap of bitcoin decreased by 0.40% compared to the previous day. Bitcoin’s share increased by 0.10% compared to the previous day, and it was analyzed that Bitcoin is falling less than the average decline rate of altcoins.
On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market that started weakly right after the opening formed a low at around 9:30 and rebounded and turned upward after 13:00. It was analyzed that there is. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is +0.43%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.13%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, is +0.06%, and a medium-sized stock-oriented index WMC recorded +1.50%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +4.81%.
As of 14:00 on the 6th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume in the last 24 hours of the last 24 hours was 50%:50%, and it was analyzed that the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14:00 was also strong. (Refer to Table 1)
At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around -7.5, and the basis of backwardation and Ethereum futures was around +4.10. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. May futures traded at $57,612.5, an increase of $622.5 (+1.09%) compared to the previous day.
◆Main cryptocurrency prices <strong>
As of 14:00 on the 6th, the cryptocurrency market price is rising. The domestic bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 69.5 million won, up 1.20% compared to the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 423,500 won, up 0.62%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.
At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market is on the rise based on coin market cap, and 9 of the top 10 stocks in market capitalization are rising as of the last 24 hours. International Bitcoin (BTC) price is $57,228.14, up 4.35% from the same time the day before, and Ethereum (ETH) is up 5.88% to $3,489.48. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.
◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <neutral>
Many market experts believe that Bitcoin entered a strong recovery mode as concerns about the rise in US interest rates that shook the cryptocurrency market the previous day were resolved. Amid the rise in the US stock market on various positive economic indicators, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s restatement of the need for an interest rate hike seems to have had a major impact. In particular, in the case of bitcoin, as the number of large institutional investors who consider bitcoin as a means of hedge inflation increases, it is gradually moving in the same direction as the traditional financial market. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching the initial resistance level of $58,000, which is the point where investors have made a profit in the last month or two. Some people still show a cautious attitude, but assessed that the market had escaped excessive selling in mid-April.
(Positive opinion)
① Coindesk editor Olrich predicted, “There is a possibility that Bitcoin will eventually rise to 1 million dollars due to the limited issuance volume.” “Bitcoin will be a million dollar coin,” he said. “I really believe that bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars at some stage with just one scarcity.” “Scarcity makes Bitcoin an incredibly exciting holding asset,” said Richie. “Bitcoin has no competitors.” He doesn’t know when Bitcoin will surpass $1 million, but he predicts it will be after 2025.
② Mike McGlon, chief product strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said, “Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently at an important inflection point towards the digitization of assets and finance beyond simple price changes.” “Of the two top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Bitcoin seems to have won as digital gold and Ethereum as a hub for decentralized finance,” he said. “After Bitcoin fell from an all-time high of $65,000, 5 At the mid-$10,000 level, it’s in the phase of price consolidation or temporary stagnation, which could help with the long-term trend of Bitcoin.”
③ Nigel Green, founder of De Beer Group, a cryptocurrency company, said, “Bitcoin prices have risen so much that demand for altcoins is exploding recently. The biggest beneficiary is Ethereum,” he said. “It will exceed 5,000 dollars within a week.”
④ Fundstrat, an investment advisory firm on Wall Street in New York, said in the latest report, “The narrative of cryptocurrency is moving from Bitcoin to Ethereum-based DeFi and DApp. The scale of the Ethereum network is continuing to expand,” he said. “This year, the Ethereum price will rise to 10,000 dollars.”
⑤ Michael Sailor, CEO of MicroStrategy, a NASDAQ listed company, argued in an interview the previous day that “Bitcoin will not face an existential threat and will dominate the 21st century.” “Even if Bitcoin payments are regulated or even illegal, Bitcoin will not face any threats as a store of value,” he said. “What the government is concerned about is blockchain applications that can transfer large amounts of capital like stablecoins.” did.
(Negative opinion)
①’Investment Guru’ Warren Buffett (90) Chairman Berkshire Hathaway’s best friend and long-time business partner Charlie Munger (97), vice chairman, said, “I hate the success of bitcoin,” saying that bitcoin is “a useful currency for kidnappers and robbers. After devaluing it as “a new financial product made out of nowhere,” he accused him of saying, “The damn new development (Bitcoin) is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.”
② Cryptocurrency analyst Rakesh Upadhier said, “If Bitcoin can maintain the exponential moving average of the 20th (EMA, around $55,915) and a price above $58,000, buyers will try to raise the price from $61,825.84 to $64,849.27.” “But if the price of the BTC/USDT pair falls below the EMA on the 20th, it can be adjusted by the sellers to $52,323.21 and even $50,460.”
③ Fairlead Strategy analyst Katy Stockton said, “Ether broke the April target of $3,000 faster than expected. It is not wise to go against momentum. There is a bit of a deterrent, but for the time being, it is likely to remain strong.” He said, “Bitcoin has recovered some of its losses in the middle of last month, which plunged to 27% due to the loss of medium-term momentum.” Stockton said, “The price per BTC won’t go up as much in the short term as in April.” “The conditions for short-term overbought fell below the 62,000-65,000 dollar resistance line. This can act as an obstacle to the price increase, and it is likely to be weak in the short term.”
◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>
Bitcoin daily market price (see Figure 5-1), which recovered the market price after a sharp decline, has continued to weaken since the opening of the day, while decreasing the trading volume, but it is in contrast to the decline two days ago. It seems to be a process of digestion. All of the major short-term moving averages, which technically deviated from the previous day’s rise, have recovered, and even if they fall on the day, they are expected to rebound after reconfirming the support power near the 5th moving average line. It seems to be done.
As we continue to emphasize recently, the US CME Bitcoin futures price is undergoing a strong upward trend to fill the decline gap that formed in the $60,000 section as expected, and as it has not yet been completed, we will try to increase again to close it. It is expected. Therefore, rather than fearing a sudden drop in prices, it seems that this should be used as an opportunity to buy at a low price. And, if it’s not a stock that’s not related to the market at all, we recommend that you anticipate and respond to the upward trend until bitcoin rises to about $61,000.
In the case of buying individual stocks, it may be meaningful to take a few days each, but in a fast circulation market like now, it usually drops sharply after the market spurts, so it may be necessary to describe the timing of buying and selling appropriately. If you are a novice trader who is difficult to trade like this, seek the help of a professional analyst.
Today is the expiration date for the daily options of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation at 14:00, the expected settlement price for the two stocks is estimated at $56,000 and $3,380, respectively. It is likely that the settlement price may fall slightly below the current level, and if the market price cannot recover due to the inflow of bitcoin, it may be pushed to the level of 56,200 dollars, which is near the 5-day moving average, so it should be noted. (Refer to’Analysis of the share of non-settled bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 15)
Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $56,135. As the current bitcoin market price is between the market price of the day and $56,135, the opportunity to buy the same day is 1) when the market price recovers on the day 2) near the moving average of the day 5 or $56,135 and rebounds. However, if the market price or $56,135 is broken on the day of recovery, you will have to sell the amount you bought and wait and see. For more detailed analysis based on market data, see ‘7. Please refer to the’Quantitative Analysis’ section.
◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>
As of 14 o’clock on the 6th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, all showed’active buy’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 6 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit were’Buy’, 1’Sell’, and 1’Neutral’ opinion and’Strong Buy’ opinion, and the moving average indicator is 11’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with one’sell’.
If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 6,’Sell’ is 1, and’Neutral’ is sending a signal of’Strong Buy’, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with 0 cases.
◆Quantitative analysis
◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>
Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ rose 17 points from the previous day (48) to 65, rising to the’greedy’ stage. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as
◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on May 6) <Strengthening>
Oil futures continued to rise after last Tuesday, but bitcoin prices fell. Among traditional assets, the dollar index rose, while the gold price and S&P index fell slightly. As of 14:00 on the 6th, the US CME Bitcoin futures return to the beginning of the year was 81.60%, down 1.49% from the previous Tuesday. During the same period, the oil futures and dollar index rose by 2.39% and 0.32%, respectively, while the gold futures and S&P index fell by 0.39% and 0.68%.
On the previous day, international oil prices remained on the rise due to anticipation of economic resumption in the US and Europe. On the 5th (Eastern Time), the price of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) produced in June at the New York Commercial Exchange closed at $65.63 per barrel, down 6 cents (0.1%) from the battlefield. As the rise in oil prices increased, so did the adjustment pressure. On this day, crude oil stocks were much lower than expected, but oil prices narrowed the rise in the news that gasoline stocks increased unexpectedly and turned to a downtrend. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.
◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on May 6) <Strengthening>
The circulation of individual cryptocurrencies continued. Since last Tuesday, the change in the yield of the top 10 stocks by market cap has hit a record high again, with DOGE soaring 3,870%, Cardano (ADA) rising 78.87%, Ripple (XRP) rising 91.7%, and so on. While stocks that rose sharply came out one after another, there were also stocks that declined, such as Binance Coin (BNB, -34.3%) and Uniswap (UNI, -6.01%), which further differentiated the yield by stock. As of 14:00 on the 6th, in the ranking of the return rate compared to the beginning of the year, DOGE (DOGE) ranked 1st with 11,189.33%, Binance Coin (BNB) ranked 2nd with 1,594.59%, Cardano (ADA) 3rd with 728.03%, Ripple (XRP) ) Ranked 4th with 612.48% and Polkadot (DOT) 5th with 381.35%.
◇On-chain indicator analysis
① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Neutral>
Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.
Index 1 (BTC spot trading volume) in Figure 10 shows a sluggish trend like the bitcoin price, while indicator 2 (ETH spot volume) shows a steep upward trend. However, on the same day, the trading volume of both stocks did not increase much compared to the previous day. In addition, in indicators 3 and 4, both stocks are expected to maintain a weak intraday trend as the total quantity sold is higher than the total quantity purchased, and the price volatility indicators of the two stocks that have risen are downward.
② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>
Although the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are falling, the gap between the two stocks’ Kimchi premium index remains stable and is in the opposite direction. Although the kimchi premium index is still above ‘0’, we believe that the conditions for maintaining the rising trend of cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are sufficiently maintained.
③ Analysis of the balance of bitcoin holdings of all exchanges <weakness>
Figure 12 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. As the exchange’s bitcoin balance, measured in blocks, has maintained a continuous trend in recent years, the bitcoin price is expected to face resistance whenever it rises.
◇Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Strengthening>
As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from all bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts was 21.80% at 10 o’clock. The proportion of the position was changed to a 33.25% increase position at 14:00, and at 10 o’clock (call option)-1.82%: (put option) -21.64% to (call option)-5.58%: (put option) 4.30% on a premium basis. As the intensity of selling has decreased, participants in the option market expect the market to rise as time goes by.
<Neutral> On the other hand, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange in the same way (see Figure 13-2), 11.88% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts The share of rising positions remained at a similar level at 14:00 at 11.77%, and at 10 o’clock (call option) 14.09%: (put option)-3.99% to (call option) 4.31%: (put option)- As the premium declines to 4.41%, the bitcoin price is expected to move sideways or slightly decline within a certain range until the expiration settlement (17:00).
◇ Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 6th)
◇Deribit Bitcoin options status (as of 14:00 on the 6th)
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