1. Expected value
The rise in currency prices (assets) depends entirely on expectations. Index funds rely on investors’ expectations for China National Transport; gold depends on investors’ expectations for hedging.
As an emerging industry, crypto assets need more investors’ expectations (imagination) as the first driving force for buying when there are not too many applications.
The expectation of EOS is “extremely high”, thanks to ETH. In other words, all the expectations of the public chain need to thank ETH.
Because before there was ETH, no one knew that this field could produce such a strong explosion (rising).
As you can imagine, if there is no ETH, whether EOS will appear is still a question. As a latecomer to the public chain, he will naturally benchmark his products with ETH.
We also saw a lot of articles about milk EOS in the last bull market, all of which were compared with ETH from the perspective of performance and experience.
The higher the expected performance of EOS, the higher the expectations of investors for EOS.
Commander Wang said that after the three waves hit 500, he said that EOS would probably be a hundred times the coin. In the last bull market, the maximum increase of BTC was about 100 times, and that of ETH was 1000 times. According to the original expectations, EOS rose by 100 times is not excessive.
But the biggest difficulty of EOS lies in: driving high and driving low. (Expectations are too high, causing the main net to fall far short of expectations)
In the eyes of investors before the mainnet launch, EOS will reach 1 million TPS, which will kill ETH, and after the mainnet launch, it will be around 3000TPS.
This gap makes many people look confused. Then someone mentioned that in the future, one million TPS can be achieved through node upgrades. This statement transfers the expectations of most people to the EOS ecosystem.
At that time, EOS launched a wave of DAPP betting projects. And the real profit from gambling, only the project party ~ ~ gambling project party earns EOS will hold it? Probably not!
After the DAPP channel fails to achieve large-scale development, investors can only lower their expectations again (just return to the original). Immediately after B1’s inaction continued to consume, and then to this year’s DeFi, EOS was complained of as the “stupidest public chain”.
All in all, before EOS went live on the mainnet, expectations have been brewing for a whole year, regardless of community popularity, project strength, and public chain performance that have pushed up unprecedented expectations.
The main network landed, and expectations and prices never returned to their original peaks.
At the same time, every hot miss in the market continues to consume EOS’ expectations. At this time, all the ones that should be left are gone, and those who haven’t left, continue to keep their only expectations and B1 consumption~~
2. EOS consensus
I believe that every user who holds EOS has asked himself this question countless times:
What is the difference between EOS? Why can’t it surpass ETH?
~~
I think, I can only say: EOS is not bad.
Where is EOS not bad?
a) The market value of EOS has been hovering around the top 10 in market value all year round. You must know that TRX has been greedy for the top ten throne for a long time, and the top ten needs support from multiple dimensions (the top ten is not satisfied, which is a manifestation of EOS’ high expectations);
b) The number of addresses (accounts) has been increasing, TPS has been expanding, and the ecology has been improving (Dafengshou, Newdex, etc.);
c) Big exchanges continue to accept EOS;
What is the difference between EOS?
consensus!
There may be many people who are not aware of it. The EOS community can be said to belong to three. How can there be a lack of consensus?
The consensus I mentioned here is based on the “consensus of expectations”, rather than the reckless “community popularity = consensus”.
For example, BTC, regardless of the currency price falling to a certain extent, although it will affect the “overall consensus” to some extent, there will always be a “partial consensus” (giant whale) to support the currency price recovery. (ETH is slightly worse)
EOS will also have the “partial consensus” mentioned above, but the problem is because of the deserted EOS ecosystem, the degree of dispersion of EOS tokens, and the decline in prices, highlighting the meagerness of the “partial consensus”.
When the “partial consensus on expectations” cannot withstand the collapse of the “overall consensus on expectations,” there is no reason for market prices to pick up.
Therefore, when big funds face EOS, ETH, and BTC, there is a high probability that EOS will not be chosen.
This is also the reason why most retail investors cannot afford Moutai, but Moutai has been rising.
Where the big money is, the probability of rising there is higher. (Note that it is a probability, not an increase)
The popularity of DeFi this year has clearly reflected the shortcomings of EOS under the “big capital consensus”. This is where EOS is really bad.
I know that many people will talk about performance and experience, but the current currency circle does not seem to pay attention to performance and experience. Take a look at BTC, the performance of a classic car is still doubtful because of the “big money consensus”.
In short, “consensus” in the currency circle decides everything, and although EOS is hot, there is not much consensus.
