Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

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Compared with the last bull market, what are the differences in volatility, nominal transaction volume, active addresses and transactions on the chain, and social media popularity?

Original title: “Bitcoin hits $50,000, do the data tell you that the bull market has peaked?” 》
Written by: Carol

Will BTC still rise?

In this round of bull market, according to CoinMarketCap’s statistics, BTC has set a new all-time high of $41,946.74 in intraday trading on January 8, but immediately adjusted its status, which made the market begin to wonder whether this round of bull market has come to an end. Until February 6th, after Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s “calls” for many times, BTC once again stood at the $40,000 mark in the intraday session, reaching a maximum of $48,000. On New Year’s Eve, Bitcoin once again stood at $49,000. The new high of 50,000 US dollars is close at hand, which makes investors expect that this round of bull market may not have peaked yet.

It is generally believed that in the history of the development of BTC, 17/18 was a bull market, especially during the period from December 2017 to January 2018. BTC completed the “top-down” bull-bear conversion. If the current BTC’s Compared with various data, what are the similarities and differences between the two rounds of bull markets? Has this bull market peaked?

The volatility decreases and the maximum MVRV becomes smaller

Compared with the bull market in 17/18, this round of bull market has a significant feature of higher currency price increase but less volatility.

According to CoinMarketCap’s statistics, from December 2017 to January 18, the peak value of the currency was about 19,497 US dollars, and the highest increase was about 77.63%. In January, it actually entered a downward channel. The currency price at the end of January was about 10,221 US dollars. , The overall increase in the two months was -6.88%. From December 20 to January 21, the currency price peaked at US$40,798, the highest increase was about 116.98%, and the overall increase in the two months reached 76.11%.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

As the market value of BTC grows, its daily volatility is gradually decreasing. From December 2017 to January 2018, the highest single-day volatility of BTC was about 35.78%. Especially in the mid-to-beginning of December during the main rise of the currency price, the volatility for multiple days exceeded 25%. From the overall level, the average daily volatility of BTC was approximately 12.18% in the two months of 2017/18.

During the period from December 20 to January 21, the single-day volatility of BTC was much smaller. Even in December, when the currency price rose, the single-day volatility basically did not exceed 10%. Within two months, the highest single-day volatility of BTC was about 25.52%, and the average daily volatility was about 7.91%.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

In the case of high currency price increase and low currency price volatility, the currency holding income of this bull market is slightly higher than that of the last bull market. According to statistics, from December 2017 to January 2018, the highest rate of return for holding currency for 30 days was approximately 199.1%. When BTC fell to the currency price level at the beginning of December 2017, holding currency 30 Tian’s yield has been negative, about -25.4%, which shows that in the last round of bull market, investors affected by FOMO sentiment suffered greater losses due to chasing highs. However, looking at the overall level, during the two-month period of the last bull market, the average return of holding currency for 30 days was about 42.1%.

In contrast, during the period from December 20 to January 21, although the maximum return rate of holding currency for 30 days is slightly lower, about 120.7%, the overall average return of holding currency for 30 days is higher, about 45.7%. Although in this round of bull market, the 30-day currency holding rate of return can still be seen to fall rapidly, the difference is that investors only reduced the rate of return due to the higher cost of opening a position and did not suffer losses.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

The unilateral upward trend of this bull market is even more pronounced. The currency price has repeatedly broken through the $40,000 mark, but the MVRV indicator shows that the market’s price consensus is still very strong, and the bubble level is lower than the peak of the previous bull market.

The MVRV index is an index developed by Coin Metrics that reflects the preference of long-term investors. It represents the ratio of the circulating market value to the realized market value. If it is less than 1, it means that the current price is lower than the overall value consensus of market participants, and the pricing is underestimated. If it is greater than 1, it means that the current price is higher than the overall value consensus of market participants, and the price is overvalued.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

According to statistics, the average value of BTC’s MVRV index from December 2017 to January 18 is about 4.7, and the average value of BTC’s MVRV index from December 20 to January 21 is about 3.8. Although during the two bull markets, market participants The overall consensus value of MVRV is higher than the current price, but in the case of a higher currency price increase in this round of bull market, not only the average MVRV is lower, but the peak value is also lower. The peak value during this bull market is about 3.79, which is lower than the previous 4.72 during the bull market.

This means that current market participants’ overestimated pricing levels are lower than those during the previous bull market. If the highest pricing level during the previous bull market is used as a reference, then this means that market participants in this round of bull market can still tolerate With a higher price consensus, BTC still has room to rise.

Notional trading volume has increased significantly, and the proportion of trading liquidity has declined

During this round of bull market, market transactions are more active. According to statistics, from December 2017 to January 2018, the nominal daily average trading volume of each exchange was approximately USD 13.332 billion, and the highest single-day trading volume was approximately USD 23.841 billion.

From December 20 to January 21, the nominal average daily trading volume of each exchange reached 54.325 billion U.S. dollars, and the highest single-day trading volume was approximately 123.321 billion U.S. dollars. In addition, there were five days of single-day trading volume exceeding 800 One hundred million U.S. dollars. On average, the average daily trading volume during this bull market is about 4 times that of the previous round.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

From the perspective of circulation, the number of freely circulating BTC in the market during this round of bull market is more, but it accounts for a smaller proportion of the total supply. According to statistics, from December 2017 to January 18, the average daily free circulation of BTC in the market was about 13.9821 million. From December 20 to January 21, this value was about 14.509800, an increase About 3.77%.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

The absolute growth of free float is related to the absolute growth of the total supply of BTC, but if you calculate the proportion of free float to the total supply, you can find that during this bull market, the proportion of free float in the total supply Reduced by about 5 percentage points. According to statistics, from December 2017 to January 2018, free circulation of BTC accounted for an average of about 83.33% of the total supply, and from December 20 to January 21, this value dropped to 78.10%.

According to CoinMetrics’ definition of free circulation, “freely circulating tokens do not include tokens of companies, foundations and founding teams; tokens whose investors have been formally restricted (through laws or smart contracts); still on the chain Visible but destroyed tokens; or provably lost tokens (if >0.25% of the supply).” It can be speculated that the free circulation of BTC may decrease or the company’s (institution) long-term currency holdings may increase, or it may interact with individuals Investors are related to the increase in the number of restricted tokens due to mortgages. But overall, this means that BTC’s liquidity has decreased during this bull market.

Not only has the liquidity of BTC decreased, but during this bull market, the distribution of BTC’s chips has become more dispersed.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

According to statistics, from December 2017 to January 2018, the total currency holdings of the top 100 addresses accounted for about 17.82% of the total supply, and the highest proportion was about 18.68%. However, during the period from December 20 to January 21, the total amount of currency held by the top 100 addresses in the balance fell to 13.41% of the total supply, a decrease of about 4.4 percentage points from the previous bull market period. The chip is scattered. Further strengthen.

The number of active addresses and transactions on the chain is basically the same

Unlike the obvious changes in market data with different time periods, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is relatively stable during the two rounds of bull markets.

From the perspective of the number of users on the chain, according to statistics, from December 2017 to January 2018, the daily average number of active Bitcoin addresses on the chain was about 1.0432 million, and the highest number of daily active addresses was about 1.2904 million. There are still 38 days when the number of daily active addresses exceeds 1 million, accounting for 62.30% of the total days (62 days).

During the period from December 20 to January 21, the daily average active addresses on the Bitcoin chain was about 1.1083 million, an increase of about 6.24% from the average daily level of the previous bull market. There are 55 days in which the number of active addresses in a single day exceeds 1 million, accounting for 88.71% of the total days, of which the highest number of active addresses in a single day is about 1.344 million.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

Judging from several transactions on the chain, the data during the two rounds of bull market is basically the same. From December 2017 to January 2018, the daily average number of Bitcoin transactions on the chain was about 323,400, and the highest number of transactions in a single day reached 498,100. In addition, there are 7 days when the number of transactions in a single day exceeds 400,000. .

From December 20 to January 21, Bitcoin’s daily average number of on-chain transactions dropped slightly to 319,300, and the highest number of transactions per day was only 402,100, which is better than the data during the previous bull market. Decline, but it is still the same as the active addresses on the chain, which is basically the same overall.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

It can be seen that the driving force for the continued rise of BTC is not mainly generated by the improvement of on-chain data, but more dependent on other factors in the market environment.

The popularity of social media has decreased slightly, and the new bull market has not further “broken the circle”

During the two rounds of bull markets, BTC’s social media popularity was different, which showed the difference in the composition of market participants. According to statistics, from December 2017 to January 2018, there were a total of 5.399,300 tweets with the topic of “#Bitcoin” on Twitter, with an average of 87,100 per day, and the highest number of tweets per day was about 155,600. , And the change in the number of tweets has basically been consistent with the currency price trend

From December 20 to January 21, there were a total of 4.4026 million tweets with the topic of “#Bitcoin” on Twitter, with an average of about 71,000 per day. The total number of tweets was 18.46% lower than during the previous bull market. . Moreover, the number of tweets reached a small peak at the end of January, with a single-day maximum of about 200.8 thousand, but it was not the highest peak of the currency price at that time.

Has Bitcoin peaked? Let the data speak

On the other hand, from the search index of the “Bitcoin” keyword in Google, the average daily search index for the period from December 2017 to January 2018 is about 233.8, with a peak value of about 616.9. From December 20 to 21 1 The average daily search index during the month was about 150.8, with a peak of about 363.6, and the average daily search index dropped by about 35.50%.

Comparing the two, it can be found that the social media popularity of this bull market is lower, which may mean that the participants and main promoters of this bull market are not from the general public.

The market is formed in constant transactions. Comparing the current data with the previous round of bull market does not accurately predict the course of the future bull market. Entering February, BTC is still in an upward channel. As of February 8, CoinMarketCap showed that BTC had reached a new high of 47,131.35. The bull market is still in progress, and the only certainty is that the duration of this round of bull market will be much longer than the previous one.

Source link: mp.weixin.qq.com

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