On November 21st, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (November 11-November 17). During the statistical period, the upward momentum of BTC continued. Although it remained sideways in the first half of the statistical period, The rise in the segment laid the foundation for the subsequent surge. The market’s upward momentum has not changed significantly. Are institutional investors still holding on to the bullish attitude and unshakable, while the retail investors who bucked the trend in the last statistical cycle were thrown cold water by the market performance How to adjust will be the focus of this weekly report.
The number of total positions (total open positions) in the latest data has further increased from 11,311 to 11,509. This value has achieved a two-week consecutive increase. The continuous rise in the market has attracted a continuous influx of funds, but it is worth mentioning that, So far, the total open interest data has not recovered the decline two weeks ago. It can be considered that the market participants have been more cautious about chasing more when the market has seen a considerable increase.
In terms of sub-data, large-scale brokerages’ long positions have risen from 832 to 845, and short positions have fallen from 7 to 4. Large institutions still gave a fair share of their position adjustment performance in the latest statistical cycle. A clear bullish attitude, even when the stock of short positions is so limited, it is still possible to increase short positions while reducing short positions. From the results, it can be seen that the bullish thinking of the broker’s account for a considerable period of time recently “won a complete victory.”
In the latest statistical cycle, the long position of leveraged fund accounts rose from 5097 to 5305, and the short position rose from 7881 to 8097 simultaneously. Leveraged funds did not continue the one-way net-long position adjustment momentum of the previous statistical cycle, but chose The simultaneous accumulation of long and short two-way positions. However, it is worth mentioning that the current number of long positions in this type of account has returned to near the three-month high level set in the week of October 27, so although this type of account is not as good as the broker in terms of position adjustment actions The merchant account has a strong intention to chase the rise, but the leveraged fund actually still maintains a clearer attitude toward more.
In terms of large holdings, long positions further dropped from 2,250 to 1933. This value continued to drop for four weeks. Short positions dropped from 1803 to 1,663. For the third consecutive week, large accounts have undergone a simultaneous reduction of long and short positions. Although the upward momentum of the market has not changed significantly, these accounts have been carrying out risk control and lightening in the recent period. For further market outlook The confidence is low. Compared with the above two types of institutional investors, this type of account is not accurate enough for short-term market judgments.
In terms of retail positions, long positions rebounded from 2,839 to 3110, and short positions rebounded from 595 to 697. After retail accounts unexpectedly carried out a contrarian margin increase in the last statistical cycle, they did not adhere to this reverse thinking even when the market rose further, and quickly returned to long and short in the latest statistical cycle. Simultaneously overweight, and the increase in long positions is in a homeopathic situation. It can be said that retail investors have been defeated in the process of challenging the market and institutional “authority”. The only net air-conditioning warehouse that has appeared in the past few weeks ended in failure. In fact, it is also a warning to market participants that they should not blindly do inverse Potential try.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?
