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On December 5th, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (November 25th to December 1st). During the statistical period, BTC went out of a classic V-shaped reversal pattern, with more than 3,000 in the week. The US dollar rebounded rapidly after a deep correction, and recovered all gains before the end of the statistical period and hit a new high in the near future. Although from the “results” point of view, BTC continued to close up during the statistical period, but the considerable depth of the correction has affected market sentiment, which is the value of this week’s report.
The total number of positions (the total number of open positions) in the latest data has dropped from 12,336 to 11,812. This value has come to an end in three consecutive weeks. The sharp correction within the week has obviously stimulated panic in the market. Compared with the previous week, the amount of open interest has dropped significantly, and the enthusiasm of market risk control to lighten up has increased significantly.
In terms of the breakdown of data, the large-scale brokers’ long positions further dropped from 668 to 626, and the short positions remained unchanged at 0. After the last statistical period, the long positions were reduced. The latest statistical cycle Large domestic institutions continue to reduce their long positions. After accurate prediction of price corrections, such accounts did not replenish their long positions after the callback landed. Instead, they chose to continue to lighten their positions. This may mean that large institutions no longer rush higher in the BTC market outlook. Optimistic, or at least clarified the attitude of such accounts that the upper resistance is strong. As a type of account that can accurately determine the direction of the market most of the time, the broker’s choice to continue to reduce long positions should be regarded as another short-term risk warning.
In the latest statistical period, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts dropped sharply from 5,441 to 4509, and the short positions fell from 9,864 to 9375 simultaneously. This is different from the substantial increase in long and short positions in the previous statistical period. The leverage in the latest statistical period The fund chose a simultaneous substantial reduction in long and short two-way positions. This position adjustment is consistent with the obvious decline in the total market position mentioned above, and can be regarded as a risk control option under a sharp correction in the market.
It is worth mentioning that during the two-way reduction of long and short positions of this type of account in the latest statistical cycle, the reduction of long positions was significantly more significant, almost taking back all the positions increased in the past three weeks. The reduction of short positions is significantly smaller, and is still at the second highest level after the historical high created in the previous statistical cycle. It can be seen that after the short-term sharp correction, the demand for profit reduction of multiple orders is more urgent. This type of account is also not very optimistic about the prospect of further BTC market outlook.
In terms of large holdings, long positions have further increased from 2381 to 2442, and short positions have rebounded from 300 to 460. After an unexpected wave of extreme long-chasing operations in the last statistical period, the latest statistical period Large accounts have carried out simultaneous increase in long and short positions. Although the increase in holdings is not large, after the long and short positions have fallen into an extreme long position that has not been seen for a long time, such a large correction in the market has not affected the firm holding of such accounts. Obviously the attitude of more positions, the side corroborated the optimistic expectations of such accounts for the continued rise in the market.
In terms of retail positions, long positions rose from 3104 to 3334, and short positions fell from 787 to 461. In the last statistical cycle, retail accounts were consistent with the institution’s risk control and partial air-conditioning warehouses. However, in the latest statistical cycle, they did not align with the institution. Instead, they made clear decisions after the market’s deep stumbling and a rebound soon restarted. Compared with the large accounts mentioned above, the net long position adjustment has a clearer intention to chase long positions. After BTC has returned to near its historical high level, retail investors and institutions have once again stood on the “opposite”, and this time, retail investors have become the homeopathy.
Extended reading: What is the CFTC position report? What’s the value? How to interpret it?