[Aim Rich Investment Strategy] Demand such as DeFi and NFT are positive factors for Ether (ETH) price

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Aim Rich Cryptocurrency Investment Information (2021.4.6)
<Figure 1-1=Market trend score as of 14:00 on the 6th (100 points, left)/Market rise/fall intensity (right)/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <strong>

The market capitalization of cryptocurrency surpassed $1 trillion on January 7th, but reached an all-time high, surpassing $2 trillion in three months. This trend is spreading as the price of not only Bitcoin but also Ethereum-based platforms increases.

In the price rally of the Ethereum platform, on-chain indicators continue to rise, such as the continued bull market of Bitcoin (BTC), the transition to Ethereum 2.0, and the number of Ethereum addresses. DeFi) and NFT (Non Fungible Token) sectors, etc., the continuous demand for Ether (ETH) has a positive impact on the price.

The US New York Stock Exchange last night closed the Dow and S&P 500 at all-time highs, fueled by the recent robust employment and economic indicators, lower government bond rates and stronger technology stocks. On the 5th (local time) on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average rose 1.13% from the previous trading day, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index rose 1.44%, and the technology stock-oriented Nasdaq Index rose 1.67% each.

As of 14:00 on the 6th, the bitcoin price based on the coin market cap is $59,300.30, the 24-hour trading volume is about $60.8 billion, and the market cap is about $1.99 trillion. The total cryptocurrency market cap is $1,9803 billion, the Bitcoin market cap share is 55.5%, and the Ethereum market cap share is 12.4%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap decreased by 0.40% compared to the previous day, and the market cap excluding bitcoin decreased by 0.17% compared to the previous day, making Bitcoin weaker than Altcoin, and bitcoin’s market cap decreased by 0.58% compared to the previous day. It was analyzed that Bitcoin’s market share decreased by 0.18% compared to the previous day, which is much lower than the average decline rate of altcoins.

<Figure 1-2=Status of Real-Time Cryptocurrency Market/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market started as a mixed trend, and after 10 o’clock, the market has plunged and rebounded due to the emergence of a strong sell-off, and investors are selling bitcoins and large stocks and buying small and medium-sized stocks. It was analyzed that it is doing. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, is -0.35%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, is +0.03%, WLC, a large stock-oriented index, is -0.64%, and a medium-sized stock-oriented index WMC recorded +1.52%, and WSC, an index centered on small stocks, recorded +2.27%.

<Figure 1-3=Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the past 24 hours/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>
<Table 1=Ratio of Longs/Shorts trading volume of major exchanges as of 14:00 on the 6th/Data=Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

As of 14:00 on the 6th, the ratio of buy:sell cumulative transaction volume for the past 24 hours was 53%:47%, and the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14:00 was also analyzed to be strong. (Refer to Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of bitcoin futures was around +82.0, and the basis of Ethereum futures was around +7.65, maintaining the contango status. The price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Merchandise Exchange (CME) is rising. April futures traded at $59,610.0, an increase of $230.0 (-0.38%) compared to the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency prices <weak>

As of 14:00 on the 6th, the cryptocurrency market price is falling. The domestic Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 7,7777,000 won, down 1.26% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 2.89,000 won, down 0.18%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

<Figure 2-1=Upbit’s Major Stock Price/Data=Trading View>
<Figure 2-2=Top 10 Coin Price (As of April 6, 14:00)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

At the same time, the global cryptocurrency market remains strong as of the coin market cap, and 9 out of the top 10 stocks in market capitalization are rising as of the last 24 hours. International Bitcoin (BTC) price is $58,852.47, up 1.64% from the same time the day before, and Ethereum (ETH) is $2,0127.26, up 3.93%. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for market prices of major stocks.

◆ Analysis of major media and market experts <Strengthening>

As the number of individual stocks soaring while Bitcoin stagnated ahead of its $60,000 breakthrough, the cryptocurrency market cap increased to $2 trillion and Bitcoin dominance fell to the low 50%. It can be said that it is an altcoin market. As the bitcoin price stabilized between $55,000 and $60,000, an atmosphere was created to encourage investors to explore other cryptocurrencies. In general, after the altcoin market, the market continued to decline, but is that the case again? Still, many experts believe the market will remain strong.

(Positive opinion)

① JP Morgan said in an e-mail sent to customers on the 31st of last month that “Bitcoin’s volatility reduction is positive for institutional investors’ interest in BTC assets.” “BTC’s market valuation will surpass gold.” JPMorgan said, “Considering how large the investment in gold is in the financial market, the concentration of gold as an alternative currency means that BTC has a lot of room for a long-term upside.” It is consistent with the private sector’s total investment in it.”

② Cryptocurrency analyst Ben Armstrong said, “Cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges are currently trading BTC call options between 100,000 and 300,000 dollars. This year, Bitcoin (BTC) could rise to 300,000 dollars.” Looked out. “Recently, professional traders are keen to buy cryptocurrency derivatives,” he said. “If you put money here, you will be confident that the price will rise.” He said, “I am confident that Bitcoin will exceed $300,000 this year,” he said. “The forecast of $32,000 will be quite accurate.”

③Bitcoin exchange CoinCorner co-founder Danny Scott said, “If Bitcoin continues to show an average of 51% in April, it will be able to rally up to $83,000.” did.

④ Cryptocurrency data provider Token Metrics Senior Technical Analyst William Noble said, “Due to recent institutional news and interest, $60,000 is just another round number for Bitcoin to pass.” “If it exceeds $60,000, then $80,000 will be the short-term target,” he said.

(Neutral opinion)

①CryptoQuant CEO Joo Ki-young said, “I am worried about the kimchi premium, but the fundamentals of bitcoin are strong.” It is being led by asset investors. As such, even if the Korean market experiences a price retreat as a result of a premium rise, it will not have as much of a shock as in 2017,” he diagnosed.

(Negative opinion)

① Cryptocurrency analyst Damanique Dantes said that Bitcoin experienced a 5% decline over the weekend because sellers continued to move actively at the $60,000 resistance level, and Bitcoin would need to break through $60,000 to resume its uptrend. Said that. He explained that the buyers, who show active movement in the support line, are facing sell-offs at the resistance level, which is a typical consolidation phase.

② Cryptocurrency analyst Joseph Young said, “Last week’s’Kimchi Premium’ (formed when bitcoin beats other major markets such as the US and traded at a higher price in Korea) rose to about 11%. When the kimchi premium rose to an all-time high during the bull market, the bitcoin market peaked, and thereafter, there was a drastic price adjustment,” he warned.

◆Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin Market Price <Strengthening>

While Bitcoin is seldom exceeding $60,000, Ethereum is also slowly rising, while individual altcoin stocks are rising sharply as if they were competing for returns. However, if you look at the trading volume indicators in Figure 5-1 and Figure 10, it can be understood that the market is not pushing back and the trading volume is decreasing, so it is technically digesting the selling volume.

This is the same for Ethereum and even CME BTC futures, so it is expected that the day when the trading volume of each stock increases will be the day when a full-fledged rise begins. Therefore, short-term traders should be cautious as the market price may be unstable in the short term, but mid- to long-term investors would be wise to maintain a buying perspective.

<Figure 5-1=BTC/USDT (Binance) Daily Price (Based on 14:00 on the 6th)/Chart=Trading View>
<Figure 5-2=Deribit (DRBT) BTC Option Simulation Results of Expected Water Settlement Price on April 6 (at 14:00)/Data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange. As a result of the simulation based on 14 o’clock, the expected settlement price for the two stocks was predicted to be 59,000 dollars and 2,080 dollars, respectively, as of 14:00. Since the expected settlement price has already been reached, it is expected that there will be no significant price fluctuations until the settlement time (refer to’Analysis of the proportion of non-payment contracts of Bitcoin options on the same day’ on page 14).

Binance BTC/USDT, calculated by the institute’s quant program, has an important price change for the day of $58,393. As the current bitcoin price is between this price and the market price of the day, wait and see 1) When the market price recovers on the day 1) After confirming a strong rebound from the moving average of $58,420 and $58,393 on the 5th day, try to buy. For more detailed analysis by this, please refer to ‘7. Quantitative Analysis’ in the latter part of the report.

◆Technical Analysis <Strengthening>

As of 14 o’clock on the 6th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange, and Binance, a foreign exchange, all showed’active buy’. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 8 of the oscillator indicators in Upbit came out of’Buy’, 0’Sell’, and 0’Neutral’ opinions, and’Strong Buy’ opinions, and the moving average indicator is 12’Buy’ and It was summarized as a’buy’ opinion with zero’sell’.

<Figure 6-1=Upbit: BTC/KRW (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

If you look at the detailed items of Binance, among the oscillator indicators,’Buy’ is 8,’Sell’ is 0, and’Neutral’ is 0, sending a’active buy’ signal, and the moving average indicator is’Buy’ is 12, ‘Sell’ was summarized as’Buy’ with 0 cases.

<Figure 6-2=Binance: BTC/USDT (Daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/Data=Investing.com>

◆Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index <Strengthening>

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated’horror and greed index’ rose 4 points from the previous day (71) to 75, maintaining the same level of greed as the previous day. A value closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and a value closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. Fear greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mention (15%), survey (15%), bitcoin market capitalization (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. Is calculated as

<Figure 7=Crypto Fear and Greed Index/Data=Alternative.Me>

◇Comparison of return by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (As of April 6, 14:00) <Strengthening>

As the price of bitcoin continued to rise, the US CME bitcoin futures yield rose 1.76% from the beginning of the year to 89.67% as of 14:00 on the 6th. During the same period, the S&P 500 rose 2.83%, while the dollar index, gold futures, and oil futures fell 0.73%, 0.68%, and 0.77%, respectively.

The previous day, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield remained stable, slightly falling from 1.7% last week, which was the highest of the year, and the stock index hit an all-time high as technology stocks increased. International oil prices fell on the news of OPEC+ production cuts eased. On the 5th (Eastern Time), the price of Western Texas crude oil (WTI) in May on the New York Commercial Exchange closed at $58.65 per barrel, down $2.80 (4.6%) from the battlefield. It is interpreted that oil prices have fallen as concerns over Iran’s production increase amid the talks of the Iranian nuclear agreement (JCPOA and Comprehensive Joint Action Plan) participants last week, OPEC+, a major oil-producing country consultative, agreed to ease production cuts. A detailed breakdown of the rate of rise and return of the comparative asset class since last Thursday is as follows.

<Table 2=Status of increase/decrease in return by asset category/Data=Chicago Commercial Exchange, USA>
<Figure 8=Year Earnings Trend by Asset Category/Data=Trading View>

◇Comparison of yield by cryptocurrency compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of April 6, 14:00) <Strengthening>

Although the bitcoin price has stagnated to exceed $60,000, the rise of altcoins including Ethereum is outstanding. Uniswap, Polkadot, Chainlink, etc. are also expected to rise due to continuous demand for Ether (ETH) such as DeFi (decentralized finance, DeFi) and NFT (Non Fungible Token) sectors. Meanwhile, the unstable Ripple (XRP) has risen sharply due to the court litigation problem. Experts have analyzed that the current XRP price movement is positive, and that if it hits the $0.70 mark, it is likely to hit a year-round high.

As of 14:00 on the 6th, Binance Coin (BNB) ranks first with 864.83%, ranked 2nd with Cardano (ADA), 585.74%, and Uniswap (UNI) ranks 3rd with 554.06%, compared to the beginning of the year. DOT) ranked 4th with 442.62% and Ripple (XRP) 5th with 263.28%.

<Figure 9=Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies in market capitalization compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the trend of trading volume on the day <Strengthening>

Analyzing the day’s trading volume of BTC/USD and ETH/USD on-chain data makes it easy to check the direction of the bitcoin market and respond to it. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 represent the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, PoloniX, Bitex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitbittyC, Gemini), 2 and 4. The indicator calculates the total number of purchases and the total amount of sales in real time, and indicates the direction of the market trend by displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.

<Figure 10=(Left) BTC on-chain transaction volume index of major exchanges/(right) ETH on-chain transaction volume index of major exchanges/data = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

Looking at indicators 1 and 2 (BTC, ETH spot trading volume) in Figure 10, it can be seen that the current period is in the process of digesting the sale for an additional increase, as the period has changed to a continuous decrease in the section showing the recent price stagnation. It can be seen that the basis for this is oriented horizontally as the price volatility indicators of indicators 3 and 4. Therefore, in the short term, the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum may show unstable, but it is highly likely to maintain an upward trend.

② Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <strong>

Although the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise, the domestic price rose higher than the overseas price, causing the kimchi premium index of the two stocks to exceed the price of the two stocks. In general, crossing is a phenomenon that occurs when overseas prices fall, so if stocks and indices rise in the same direction as now, it should be viewed as a temporary reversal. Of course, this is not a normal situation, so it is worth paying attention to it, but as the uptrend is continuing, we recommend that short-term trading be cautious, and mid- to long-term investors are advised to maintain a buy perspective.

<Figure 11-1=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=Cryptoquant>
<Figure 11-2=Comparison of Ethereum Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trends/Data=Cryptoquant>

③ Analysis of the balance of all exchanges <strong>

Figure 12-1 shows the trend of the bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the bitcoin price. Bitcoin balances held by all exchanges (Figure 12-1), which were captured last week, have declined, suggesting that Bitcoin is about to break through the $60,000 resistance.

<Figure 12-1=Bitcoin (BTC) market price and comparison of Bitcoin balances held by major exchanges/Data=Cryptoquant>

In addition, the Ethereum balance of all exchanges (Figure 12-2) has been decreasing since mid-January, and Ethereum prices are likely to receive more momentum due to this trend of decrease in supply.

<Figure 12-2=Comparison of Ethereum (ETH) market price and Ethereum balances held by major exchanges/Data=Cryptoquant>

④ Analysis of average amount withdrawn from all exchange wallets

Figure 12-3 shows the average amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from all exchange wallets. When the price was low, there was a large buy, but after that, there is no such big buying trend, so it is expected that attempts to break through the resistance of the USD 60,000 will be difficult or the momentum of the uptrend will slow down somewhat for the time being.

<Figure 12-3=Bitcoin (BTC) market price and comparison of Bitcoin balances held by major exchanges/Data=Cryptoquant>

On the other hand, as shown in Figure 12-4, Ethereum seems to have an active withdrawal amount, and it can be seen that there have been two large withdrawals even at the recent price peak. Further rise can be expected. Even if it is connected with Figure 12-2, it is consistent.

<Figure 12-4=Bitcoin (BTC) Price and Bitcoin Balance Trends in Major Exchanges/Data=CryptoQuant>

◇Analysis of the proportion of non-settled bitcoin options on the day <Strengthening>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from the bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Deribit, OKEx, Bit.com) (see Figure 13-1), the down position was 6.93% at 10 o’clock based on the number of contracts. At 14 o’clock, the weight was changed to a 29.95% increase position, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option) 43.09%: (put option) -1.23% to (call option) 16.67%: (put option) -13.81%. In terms of synthetic positions, it is analyzed that options market participants expect an increase on average.

<Figure 13-1=Analysis of non-payment agreements for bitcoin options of major exchanges as of 10 o’clock (top) and 14 o’clock (bottom) on the 6th = Aim Rich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

On the other hand, in the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of outstanding contracts aggregated from Bitcoin options that expire on the day issued by the DRBT exchange (see Figure 13-2), the number of contracts was 31.23% at 10 o’clock. The risk of downward settlement was eliminated by liquidating the position where the proportion fell to 2.75% at 14 o’clock, and in terms of premium, from 10 o’clock (call option) 46.29%: (put option)-0.58% to (call option) 19.89%: (Put option) was changed to -8.63%, and it was analyzed that it is expected to liquidate the short position and settle a slight bullish settlement ahead of the maturity settlement.

<Figure 13-2=Analysis data/data on non-payment agreement of Bitcoin options of Deribit Exchange as of 10:00 (upper) and 14:00 (lower) on the 6th = Aimrich Financial Engineering Research Institute>

◇[Attachment 1] Current status of major Bitcoin futures (as of 14:00 on the 6th)

◇[Attachment 2] Deribit Bitcoin Options Status (as of 14:00 on the 6th)

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