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After more than 3 years of waiting, Filecoin, which people love and hate, is finally online.
At 22:44 pm on October 15th, Beijing time, after the block height reached the predetermined 148,888, Filecoin produced by Protocol Labs officially ushered in its mainnet.
Before the mainnet went live, the FIL token trading price of individual exchanges suddenly hit more than $200. After the mainnet went live, Binance, Huobi, OK, Kraken, Gemini and other first-tier exchanges took the initiative to go online. , Coinbase Custody also announced its support for the first time, so a friend joked and said to me:
“You got rich.”
However, this is just a good joke. In fact, I don’t have any tokens that can be sold on the market. According to the original regulations, the publicly offered tokens need to be unlocked linearly within 3 years after the mainnet launch, and approximately 0.0913 unlocked every day %, even if I chose the shortest 6-month release period, the unlocking speed is about 0.55% per day. Therefore, the current market price is just a phantom, which is similar to the original Zcash opening when the highest price exceeded 3000 BTC. The reason for this, and as more and more coins are released, the selling pressure on the market will also increase…
Despite the fact that it is so cruel, Filecoin still carries the decentralized storage and rich dreams of too many people.
“If you buy a coin, you don’t go to CX, that’s your fault.”
This sentence seems to have become a general consensus in the circle, and in Filecoin, this phenomenon is even more obvious.
Well, I still want to pour cold water on it, even if it makes many people hate it, it seems to be against my own interests.
Four risks involved in investing in Filecoin
Regarding the first risk of Filecoin investment, the author has actually mentioned it, that is, for a long period of time, Filecoin has been under great selling pressure. Currently, there are many trading pairs in the Filecoin market, one is the main network FIL, and FIL6, FIL12, and FIL36 futures tokens. The difference is that the mainnet tokens are real tokens that can be withdrawn normally, and the rest are IOU tokens that need to be gradually unlocked. From the market price, the main The price of net coins is 2-3 times that of IOU tokens, and the price of 6-month IOU tokens is about twice the price of 36-month tokens.
I think there are two possible explanations for this phenomenon:
The price of tokens that require time to unlock is underestimated;
The current spot market price is overvalued;
But for now, I prefer the second explanation myself.
Another point about the risk of Filecoin investment is the uncertainty of its application. Although many investors have described many scenarios where decentralized storage replaces centralized storage, in reality, it is assumed that users need to pay for data storage. The cost of FIL is higher than the cost of traditional centralized storage, which will inhibit their need to store data. Therefore, many people have proposed that Filecoin storage is prepared for high-value data, but what data is high-value data, and there will be There is a big uncertainty about who will choose Filecoin storage, and it is undoubtedly a big problem to develop applications in the early stage.
The third point about the uncertainty of Filecoin investment is the uncertainty that exists in the agreement laboratory of the project party. The main network has been delayed again and again, but secondly, like yesterday the team suddenly released 1.5 million FIL tokens, and The so-called “stabilizing market price” is really disgusting.
The last point of risk is the risk of hype that blockchain projects generally face. The air stage of star public chain projects such as eos and Polkadot before the mainnet launch is the hottest stage of market hype, and after the mainnet launch , The bubble will gradually burst. As for whether it can return to the upward trend in the later period, it depends on the market’s recognition of the project.
When applied to Filecoin, it may be at the peak of the Release phase.
Some final thoughts:
Although the author mentioned a lot of Filecoin risks above, this does not mean that I am not optimistic about this project and this market.
It’s just that during this period, blindly touting Filecoin, whose foundation is not yet solid, and the bubble is very obvious, personally feel that it is very risky.
Perhaps, a proper splash of cold water can lead to better development.