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After the Ethereum deposit contract meets the restrictions, the long Ethereum 2.0 online mileage will start on December 1st. On this occasion, I summarized and analyzed 10 sets of Ethereum-related data to understand the development trends and trends of the Ethereum network from multiple dimensions.
Original title: “Ten sets of data tell you what you don’t know about Ethereum”
Author: Jing Kai
Ethereum broke through a two-year high on Monday, reaching $609, and then fell back to near $570. We have been paying attention to the development of Ethereum. After the Ethereum deposit contract meets the restrictions, we will start the long Ethereum 2.0 online mileage on December 1st.
On this occasion, we summarized and analyzed 10 sets of Ethereum-related data to understand the development trends and trends of the Ethereum network from multiple dimensions.
1. Nearly 80% of Ethereum addresses are profitable
At the current price of Ethereum, how many ETH accounts are profitable? The number and proportion of profitable (In the Money) addresses reflect the current overall investment position cost of Ethereum investors.
According to the data of Intotheblock, an on-chain data analysis company, we can compare the number of addresses and the number of Ethereum.
In terms of the current Ethereum spot price of US$528, 78.39% of the Ethereum addresses have been profitable, which is approximately 38.58 million addresses. Currently, the number of addresses that are not profitable is about 6.94 million, which is about 14.11%. In addition, 7.49% of addresses are in a breakeven state.
From the perspective of the number of Ethereum , there are currently 90.36 million Ethereum in a profitable state, which is 79.56%. There are still 9.52 million ETHs at a loss, and the proportion of this part is 8.38%.
If the price of Ethereum breaks through the integer value of $600 again, it means that only 5.97 million Ethereum addresses and 4.94 million ETH are at a loss. This means that after Ethereum breaks through $600, about 96% of Ethereum will be profitable or return to capital.
Since the previous high of Ethereum is about $1342, the cost of holding this part of the high position is about $843 on average. If the final fortress wants to be broken, it is expected to wait until the mad cow mode is activated.
2. The number of active addresses continues to grow
According to CoinMetrics’ on-chain address data, the number of active addresses in Ethereum is still increasing, and the current number of active addresses is about 545,000. At the high point of January 16, 2018, 735,000 addresses were active that day. It should be noted that for the convenience of viewing in the figure, the 14-day average is used for smoothing.
The number of active addresses on the chain can reflect the activity of market transactions, as an auxiliary indicator for community participation and possible trends in currency prices. Since the beginning of 2020, especially since the boom of liquid mining in the summer, the development of the DeFi ecosystem in the Ethereum community has also contributed to the activity of the Ethereum network.
Another related data is the relative proportion of active addresses to total addresses. The active addresses and total addresses measured by this indicator are counted for addresses with balances.
According to IntoTheBlock’s statistics, the current daily active addresses account for about 1.1% of the total number of addresses.
For comparison, we can see that during the period from June 2017 to February 2018, the proportion of active addresses was in the range of 4%-10%.
Here we need to consider the impact of the amount of new addresses in Ethereum. The rapid increase in addresses in a short period of time will often correspond to the increase in transaction volume on the secondary market and the large fluctuations in currency prices. According to the data of Glassnode, the current number of new addresses is about 134,000, showing an upward trend of shocks, but compared to the previous wave of bull market, it is still a moderate increase.
Combining the comparison of the growth trend from November 2017 to February 2018 and the proportion of active addresses, we can also roughly infer that the FOMO sentiment of market participants has not yet been fully ignited. Of course, considering that many investors are still directly participating in the encrypted market through centralized exchanges, the changes in the number of active addresses on the chain are only for reference.
3. On-chain transactions pick up
The transaction volume on the chain reflects the daily transaction volume in the Ethereum network, which is used to measure the activity of the network. From the above data, in a period of two years, from May 2018 to March 2020 or so, the daily trading volume of Ethereum tends to fluctuate in the range of 3 million ETH.
This year’s data shows that the daily average transaction volume gradually increased to 5 million ETH. During the DeFi hot period, the daily transaction volume once exceeded 10 million ETH, and then fell back to between 5 million ETH and 8 million ETH.
Comparing the Ethereum trading volume during the last bull market (as shown in the figure below, from IntoTheBlock), we can regard the daily trading volume of 10 million ETH as a trading range that needs to be reached first. The law of quantity before price shows that, to a certain extent, on-chain transactions may give us a reference indicator when the next wave of bull market escapes. When the volume shrinks and the price rises, we must begin to be vigilant.
Although the price has fallen recently, with the gradual recovery of the transaction volume data on the Ethereum chain, I believe that it will not wait long to enter the daily transaction volume level of 10 million ETH.
4. Mayer index
The Mayer index (Mayer) is often used in BTC market analysis to measure whether the current market is overbought or oversold. This indicator was created by Twitter user Trace Mayer. QKL123 provides the Mayer index for the Ethereum market.
Specifically, the Mayer Index compares the current currency price with the 200-day average price to obtain a ratio. If the Mayer index value is large, it indicates that the current currency price is higher than the 200-day average price and may be in an overbought state; if the Mayer Multiple is small, it indicates that the current currency price is lower than the 200-day average price and may be in an oversold state. The Mayer index shows traders’ optimistic or pessimistic views on the market.
The Mayer index of the current Ethereum market is around 1.8. Since the Mayer index is not an absolute indicator, we need to compare it with historical data in different situations. If the Mayer index is too large, it means that the current market price is difficult to maintain, and the risk of bubble bursting is aggravated, and positions need to be carefully controlled.
The two days when the Ethereum Mayer Index reached its highest value in history were March 14th in 2016 and June 13th in 2017. Since the Mayer indicator is not commonly used in the Ethereum market, certain corrections are still needed in actual use, especially for the currency that only began to experience the first round of bull market in 2017.
When the price of Ethereum reached 9020 yuan on January 14, 2018, the Mayer index was 3.42.
Therefore, we can ignore the two extreme values of the Mayer indicator and use the data at the beginning of 2018 as a reference for the extreme bull market to reverse the node.
Similarly, we can see that the price of Ethereum on March 12, 2019 was around 900 yuan, when the Mayer index was 0.8.
Therefore, when we use the Mayer index as an Ethereum market analysis, we can simply and arbitrarily use the 0.8-3.5 interval as a reference indicator. According to current data, the market is still optimistic.
Five, Jiang Zhuoer top escape index
According to the Jiang Zhuoer top escape indicator given by QKL123, it can be used to measure the current market position. Jiang Zhuoer’s escape refers to the degree of enthusiasm used to describe market sentiment. At the end of the bull market, the market was frenzied and bubbles piled up. In the short term, currency prices rose rapidly, exceeding the speed of entry of newcomers and funds. This indicator uses the 60-day cumulative increase to measure the market’s trading sentiment. If the value is too high, it means that the market must be wary of the turning point of the market entering the bubble burst.
According to historical data experience, 100% of the 60-day cumulative increase in the Ethereum market can be used as a reference to measure the risk of market bubble bursting.
However, this indicator is the same as the Mayer index. Although it is commonly used in Bitcoin analysis, it has not been verified by the long-term market in Ethereum market analysis. Therefore, you should not stick to the absolute value, but as a relative measure.
6. The proportion of long-term lock-ups exceeds 57%
The holding time of the Ethereum address can be used to measure the basic distribution of market investors to a certain extent. If the proportion of long-term currency holders increases, it means that more investors continue to be optimistic about the market outlook and will not sell in the short term. The selling pressure on ETH will not increase. The more people hold long-term positions, the lower the selling pressure of ETH.
Currently, more than 57% of Ethereum addresses hold currency for more than one year. Specifically, there are currently 28.39 million addresses and 59.26 million ETH that have been locked for more than a year. This data may reflect the optimism of Ethereum holders towards the market outlook.
Of course, as the price of ETH increases, some traders also choose opportunities to participate in transactions. The data shows that the proportion of ETH held for no more than one month has also increased in the past three months. The data in November shows that there are 3.04 million Ethereum addresses and 19.55 million ETH holdings for no more than 30 days. The increase in this value often means that traders are more actively participating in the market.
7. Grayscale Trust locked 2.635 million pieces
On October 12, the cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale Investments (Grayscale) posted a message on the official Twitter stating that it had been officially approved by the SEC and its Ethereum Trust officially became the SEC reporting company.
Grayscale Trust provides a convenient and compliant channel for traditional institutions to purchase encrypted assets. It is no wonder that many people are excited about this. In addition to the Bitcoin Grayscale Trust, the Ethereum Grayscale Trust can now also be traded on the market, and the Grayscale Trust ETH Position Index indicates the amount of ETH held in the ETH Trust.
Grayscale Ethereum Trust currently holds 2.635 million shares, and has issued 28,367,200 current trust shares based on this, containing 0.09289242 ETH per share.
Since Grayscale ETH Trust is the first compliant trust, and it is currently a one-way exchange mechanism (holding ETH can be handed over to Grayscale, and replaced with the corresponding ETHE share lock-up), as Grayscale continues to buy weekly Buy, buy, and it is expected that Grayscale will grow into the largest Pixiu except for the ETH 2.0 lock-up.
8. DeFi locked up a new high
DeFi is the flagship of the Ethereum ecosystem. According to DeBank data, after the total lock-up volume of DeFi broke a new high in mid-November, the lock-up volume of DeFi products has recently fallen.
DeBank uses the asset value after removing the endogenous assets of the DeFi applications to measure the real lock-up volume. Compared with the total lock-up volume data, it can truly reflect the ecological data of DeFi.
The current lock-up amount of ETH in DeFi is 7 million, which is a decrease of 900,000 ETH from the peak. One of the factors may be the recent rise in the price of ETH, which has encouraged some DeFi players to ship. The top DeFi applications have shown varying degrees of decline in locked positions.
In terms of stablecoins, there are currently a total of $17 billion in stablecoins issued on Ethereum. Among them, USDT occupies 2/3, exceeding US$12 billion.
Nine, computing power is approaching historical peak
Although the creation stage of the beacon chain with ETH2 approaching Phase0 is getting closer, many third-party mortgages and token holders have begun to deploy the staking market to participate in ETH2 mining. However, before ETH fully transitions to the PoS mechanism, the difficulty of network mining can still be used as the attitude of the miners to the market.
The data in the figure shows the hash power of Ethereum. It can be seen that in the past six months, the mining power of Ethereum has continued to increase, from 176 TH/s in late June to the current 266.38 TH/s, TH/s Represents the amount of hash operations that can be run per second (THash as a unit), and represents the magnitude of the hashrate value.
At the same time, according to the data of QKL123, the current Ethereum network computing power is also close to the historical high value, and the current mining difficulty is 3.56 P. The higher the difficulty of mining, the higher the cost of producing blocks.
The increase in computing power and mining difficulty comes from two aspects: the addition of more high-performance mining machines, and the investment in more costs to participate in mining. This means that during the duration of this bull market, although there is some controversy over the switch between PoW and PoS, the miners are still investing for a long time and are optimistic about the future of Ethereum.
According to the data, the mining pools with the largest computing power currently come from Spark Mine Pool, EtherMine and Spider Mine Pool. The total computing power of Spark Mine Pool and EtherMine Pool account for almost half of the total network computing power.
10. Ethereum circulation and market value
The current total number of Ethereum is 110 million. Currently, about 18,000 ETH is mined every day, and the current total market value is 442.95 billion RMB. At the beginning of January 2018, the peak market value of Ethereum reached 863 billion, which means that if the price is doubled according to the current number of Ethereum, the market value level of the previous high can be restored.
At present, BTC has recovered its previous market value level, and the price is breaking through the previous high. In contrast, you can also intuitively feel the operating rhythm of different markets. It will take time for Ethereum to break through the previous high.
Of course, considering that the market capitalization indicator will be affected by many factors when used as an estimation parameter, such as circulation, price volatility, etc., it is not suitable for strict estimation, but it can roughly show that the emotional cycle of the ETH market is continuing to be optimistic. The accumulation phase.
The current average gas price is 35.12 Gwei. Gas fee measures the activity in the Ethereum network. As network participants increase, in order to increase the priority of transactions being packaged into blocks, the gas fee will increase. During August-September 2020, the gas fee soared to several hundred, caused by DeFi traders.
Another factor will affect the ETH market: the development of the ETH 2.0 staking field.
742,432 ETHs are locked in the current ETH storage contract, which has met the minimum requirements for depositing 524,288 ETH to initiate the ETH 2.0 phase.
With the arrival of the expected launch date of the beacon chain on December 1, players in the staking field will gradually enter the market. Whether it is to use the single-handling mode (to collect 32 ETH) or participate as an independent pledger, it will make ETH’s The amount of locked positions has increased, reducing market circulation. The impact of this part is also worthy of attention.
to sum up
Through the above ten sets of data, we should have an intuitive understanding of the current state and trend of the Ethereum network. Despite the callback, nearly 80% of the addresses remain profitable, the proportion of long-term positions on the chain is also increasing, and market fundamentals are still positive.
In addition, the overall market cycle has entered an upward phase, and the addition of institutional giants such as Grayscale and Paypal will bring new growth forces to the crypto market. Compared with the past, there are more institutional players, and I think it will be more stable than before.
The market is risky, and investment needs to do your homework. Hope that some of the thinking angles mentioned in this article can give you some inspiration.
This article mainly quotes data sources from websites such as QKL123, DeBank, intotheblock, EtherScan, CoinMetrics, etc. Thank you.
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