The amount of sales that comes out every time it goes up… still unstable uptrend


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Aim Rich Investment Strategy (2021.06.29)
<Figure 1-1=Market trend score as of 14:00 on the 29th (based on 100 points, left)/ Market ups and downs (right)/Data=Aimrich Institute of Financial Engineering and Technology>

◆Cryptocurrency market conditions <neutral>

Although the cryptocurrency market maintains an overall upward trend, every time it rises, a similar amount of sale is poured out, repeating the movement of giving up an upward price. Although the coin price has started to rise in the short term, additional regulations on cryptocurrency in each country continue, and the non-stop selling of bitcoin by miners is also considered a major factor. Although the forecasts of market experts are also greatly mixed, in the short term, weight is being placed on the possibility that a sideways movement will continue for the time being until it leaves the $30,000-$40,000 range.

As of 14:00 on the 29th, Bitcoin (BTC), the No. 1 cryptocurrency by coin market cap, has a market capitalization of $ 34.953, a 24-hour trading volume of about $ 34.3 billion, and a market cap of about $ 656.1 billion. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $1.421 trillion, with a share of 46.1% of the Bitcoin market cap and 17.6% of the Ethereum market cap. As of this time, Ethereum (ETH) is up 3.53%, AAVE (+7.14%), Quantum (QTUM, +7.23%), Curve (CRV, +5.38%), Uniswap (UNI, +3.81%) ), Tron (TRX, +3.64%), etc. by market cap and DeFi-related stocks are strong.

US stock markets were mixed last night. The Dow fell on concerns about the spread of the delta-mutant virus, but the Nasdaq and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 indexes smashed all-time highs thanks to strong tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average of the New York Stock Exchange on the 21st (local time) fell 0.44% from the previous trading day to 34,283.27, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.23% to 4,290.61, and the Nasdaq index, which focuses on technology stocks, rose 0.98%. Each closed at 4,500.51.

On that day, big tech stocks rose immediately as the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 1.471% during the day. In particular, with the news that the US court dismissed the US Federal Trade Commission’s antitrust suit against Facebook, Facebook closed 4.18% higher and joined the $1 trillion market cap for the first time in history. Apple shares rose 1.25%, while Amazon (1.25%), Microsoft (1.40%), Tesla (2.51%), and Netflix (1.13%) also rose all at once.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 1.83% from the previous day, and the market capitalization excluding bitcoin increased by 2.35% from the previous day, making altcoins stronger than bitcoin, and the market cap of bitcoin increased by 1.25% from the previous day, bitcoin The share of altcoins decreased by 0.57% from the previous day, indicating that the average increase rate of altcoins is higher than that of Bitcoin.

<Figure 1-2= Real-time Cryptocurrency Market Status/Data= Aimrich Institute of Financial Engineering and Technology>

On the other hand, according to the Weiss Crypto Index, the market continues to rise after a strong start, and altcoins are stronger than Bitcoin, and especially small stocks are being analyzed to be buying. As of 14:00, W50, a cryptocurrency market index including bitcoin, +2.81%, W50X, a cryptocurrency market index excluding bitcoin, +3.13%, WLC, an index centered on large stocks, +2.51%, index centered on medium stocks WMC, which is a +3.86% small stock index, WSC, recorded +9.99%.

<Figure 1-3= Longs/Shorts cumulative trading volume ratio of major exchanges in the last 24 hours/Data= Aimrich Institute of Financial Engineering and Technology>
<Table 1 = Longs/Shorts trading volume ratio of major exchanges as of 14:00 on the 29th / Source = Aimrich Institute of Financial Engineering and Technology>

As of 14:00 on the 29th, the cumulative buy:sell volume ratio of major cryptocurrency exchanges in the past 24 hours was 54%:46%, indicating that the buying trend was strong, and the long/short ratio of each exchange as of 14:00 was also analyzed to be strong. . (See Table 1)

At the same time, on the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX, the basis of Bitcoin futures is around -21.5 in backwardation, and the basis of Ethereum futures is around +3.85, maintaining contango. The price of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is rising. Futures July waters traded at $35,350.0, down $825.0 (+2.39%) from the previous day.

◆Main cryptocurrency price status <strong>

As of 14:00 on the 29th, the price of cryptocurrency is rising as of Upbit. The domestic Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at 40.426,000 won, up 1.17% from the previous day, and Ethereum (ETH) at 2,492,000 won, up 3.19%. The prices of major stocks are as follows.

<Figure 2-1= Price/Data of Upbit Major Stocks=Upbit>

At the same time, according to CoinMarketCap, in the global cryptocurrency market, eight of the top 10 stocks by market capitalization are rising as of the last 24 hours. The international Bitcoin (BTC) price rose 1.46% from the same time the previous day to $34.953, and Ethereum (ETH) rose 8.84% to $2,154.76. Please refer to Figure 2-2 for the price of major stocks.

<Figure 2-2=Top 10 coin price (as of June 29, 14:00)/Image=Coin Market Cap>

Analysis of major media and market experts <Neutral>

Bitcoin has been on a short-term uptrend in the past 24 hours and is attempting a relief rally, but the recent market conditions are warning bells here and there. While the views of experts are mixed, a number of experts believe that a sideways movement within the range is likely to continue for the time being until the price of Bitcoin clearly takes a clear direction above $40,000 or below $30,000.

(Positive comments)

① Jim Kramer, a famous host of CNBC, a US economic broadcaster, said, “Ethereum is not just a currency.” He said, “I will continue to purchase Ethereum (ETH).” “People actually buy more with Ethereum, including non-fungible tokens (NFTs),” he explains. “People use Ethereum a lot more to buy things.” “This time, I will hold Ethereum instead of Bitcoin,” he said, adding that he would “keep buying Ethereum.” He also predicted a bull market for Ethereum.

② On-chain data analyst Willy Wu said this month’s (June) cheers should go back to China. This is because it altruistically removed the last remaining important centralized area on the Bitcoin network. He said, “China has removed centralization at the expense of its own children and grandchildren,” he said. “This situation will allow future generations to understand that the decentralized Bitcoin system is stronger than any particular country that opposes it,” he said. It will be an opportunity to confirm it clearly.”

③ Mike McGlone, chief commodities strategist at Bloomberg, expressed his view that China’s cryptocurrency ban could be the basis for Bitcoin’s revitalization. McGlone shares a chart where Tether’s market cap has recently increased and Bitcoin’s price has fallen due to the impact of China’s anti-crypto policy, and the headwind from China, which is becoming increasingly hostile to Bitcoin, is spurring the digitalization of the currency in the long term. Law argued that it could turn into a tailwind for Bitcoin.

④ Bobby Li, co-founder of China’s first cryptocurrency exchange BTCC (BTCChina) and founder of Velvet Wallet, claimed that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in the next 3-5 months. “This year in the cryptocurrency market, it will be a bull market that comes once every three to four years,” he said. “It was the same in 2013 and 2017.” “Bitcoin could hit $100,000 this summer and $300,000 at the end of the year, and then crash 90% as the bubble bursts,” he warned.

(neutral opinion)

① CoinDesk analyzes that Bitcoin’s short-term resistance is $35,000 and support is $30,000, and it is likely that the movement will continue in the range for the time being until Bitcoin clearly takes a direction above $40,000 or below $30,000. predicted that there was

(Negative Opinion)

① Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, a US asset management firm, said, “The long-term outlook for Bitcoin to rise to $600,000 is valid, but investors should prepare for further declines before Bitcoin rises again. do,” he said. Minard said, “In the meantime, Bitcoin’s major correction has seen a drop of about 80% from its highs. Based on the current Bitcoin price, this means that it is likely to drop to about $15,000. Personally, Bitcoin’s short-term correction is 2 “I’ve been told it’s likely to stop between ~$30,000. In the short term, if Bitcoin’s $30,000 support level breaks, the next support will be around the $20,000 level.”

② In a recent report, JP Morgan, a global investment bank, was concerned that “Bitcoin-related listings may increase in the market as investors who have bought large Bitcoin funds such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) sell in large numbers.” J.P. Morgan also said, “To confirm the true bottom of the Bitcoin price, it must first drop to the $25,000 level. A drop below $30,000 is not enough to lead to a price rebound.”

③Robert Kiyosaki said, “The best time to prepare for a dip is before a crash. The biggest dip in history is coming. The good news is that the best time to get rich is in a bear market, and the bad news is that the bear market is going to be long. You should buy as many gold, silver and bitcoins as possible. Be careful.” Kiyosaki previously said on the 19th (local time), “The biggest bubble in history is getting bigger and bigger. The bubble will collapse soon.” “Wait until Bitcoin drops to $24,000. When it collapses, you can become rich.” It’s been mentioned.”

④ Cryptocurrency market analyst Filbfilb observed that if Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $30,000 barrier, altcoin investors’ losses could more than double. “Altcoins face a ‘catch-up risk’,” he warned, warning that “altcoin investors should find alternatives to the bitcoin decline.”

Comprehensive analysis of bitcoin price <strong>

The daily bitcoin price (see Figure 5-1), which has continued to rise while forming a beekeeper for four days in a row, is technically on the verge of reaching the 20-day moving average. It was not an easy upward movement as it went up while receiving the continuous sale of miners. Under normal circumstances, it will be possible to move up to the technical upside target of $36,545, and whether to rise further will be judged at that location.

<Figure 5-1=BTC/USDT (Binance) daily price (as of 14:00 on the 29th)/Chart=Trading View>

However, miners are still selling (see the indicator at the bottom of Figure 5-1), and the on-chain transaction volume analysis on page 15 shows that both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have risen from their lows in the last 3-4 days, but they are selling during this period. It can be seen that the trading volume is either maintaining or increasing. It is judged that it is difficult to expect a strong increase in the on-chain trading volume pattern even if the market price does not decrease. In addition, if you look at Figure 5-2, which shows the 7-day moving average of BTC funding ratios of major exchanges, it can be seen that the trend of the funding rate is still on a downward trend.

<Figure 5-2= 7-day moving average trend of major exchanges’ BTC funding ratio (as of 14:00 on the 29th)/Chart=The Block>

On the other hand, today is the expiration date of daily options for Bitcoin and Ethereum on the DRBT exchange, and as a result of simulations as of 14:00, the expected payment prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum options are $34,000 and $2,000, respectively, which will fall from the current price. was predicted to If we analyze the percentage of all options listed on major exchanges and the percentage of open interest deribit that expires today, we can expect the market to weaken in the afternoon unless there is a sudden influx of buying pressure because the percentage of the premium to buy call options has declined sharply compared to the morning. Due to the bullish influence of Ethereum since yesterday, Ethereum call options have remained bullish overall. However, if the price of option expiration tomorrow is simulated, it is expected to be higher than today at $35,000 for Bitcoin and $2,100 for Ethereum, so if the afternoon market price is weak, it is better to approach the purchase in installments at the low of each item after the expiration time (5 PM). see. (For details, see ‘Bitcoin options open interest weight analysis for the day’ on page 15)

<Figure 5-3=Derivit (DRBT) BTC Option Expected price of water settlement on June 29th simulation result (as of 14:00)/Source=Aimrich Institute of Financial Engineering and Technology>

The price of Binance BTC/USDT on the day, calculated by our quant program, is $34,551. The current price of Bitcoin is above the market price of the day and $34,551, but it has not crossed the previous day’s high and the 20-day moving average is expected to have strong resistance, so it is appropriate to buy in the afternoon if you did not buy when it crossed the market and $34,551 in the morning. don’t Therefore, it is judged that it is better to manage the volume while making sure that only the investors who currently hold it do not deviate from the market price and USD 34,551. A more detailed analysis based on market data can be found in ‘7. Please refer to the ‘Quantitative Analysis’ section.

◆Technical analysis <bearish>

As of 14:00 on the 29th, the technical analysis of the daily price movement of Bitcoin on Upbit, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange and Binance, an overseas exchange, was found to be ‘neutral’ and ‘sell’, respectively. Looking at the detailed evaluation items, 3 ‘buy’, 3 ‘sell’, and 3 ‘sell’ opinions out of Upbit’s oscillator indicators resulted in a ‘neutral’ opinion, while the moving average indicator had 4 ‘buy’ and 8 opinions. It was summarized as a ‘sell’ opinion as a ‘sell’ suggestion.

<Figure 6-1=Upbit BTC/KRW (daily) technical analysis summary table/>

On the other hand, if you look at Binance’s detailed items, 2 ‘buy’, 3 ‘sell’, and 3 ‘neutral’ oscillator indicators are sending a ‘sell’ signal, while the moving average indicator has 4 ‘buy’ signals. , ‘sell’ was summarized as ‘sell’ with 8 cases.

<Figure 6-2=Binance BTC/USDT (daily) Technical Analysis Summary Table/>

Quantitative analysis

◇Crypto Fear & Greed Index < bearish >

Cryptocurrency data provider Alternative’s self-estimated ‘fear and greed index’ showed the same ‘extreme fear’ stage as the previous day (25). The index closer to 0 indicates extreme fear in the market, and closer to 100 indicates extreme optimism. The fear and greed index is based on volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), SNS mentions (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin market cap weighting (10%), Google search volume (10%), etc. is calculated as

<Figure 7-1=Crypto Fear and Greed Index/Data=Alternative.Me>

◇Comparison of returns by asset compared to the beginning of the year (%) (as of 14:00 on June 29) <Neutral>

Recently, the stock market has soared so much that fears of inflation are overshadowed. Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) tapering (reducing bond purchases) sequence is becoming a reality, it continues to rise. This is because high-ranking officials with substantial powers, such as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Federal Reserve Bank Governor John Williams, believe that inflation is temporary every day. It is interpreted that this is because investors are relieved of this. In particular, in recent years, stock prices have risen and long-term government bond prices have also been strong, realizing the liquidity market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 1.471% during the day.

As of 14:00 on the 29th, the U.S. CME Bitcoin futures yield from the beginning of the year was 9.43%, up 5.15% from last Thursday, and the Dollar Index and the S&P 500 Index also rose 0.11% and 1.32%, respectively. However, gold and oil futures fell 0.14% and 0.35% respectively.

<Figure 7-2 = June 23rd US Dollar Index and 5-Minute U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Chart/Source = Trading View>

The day before, international oil prices closed lower on arbitrage. On the 28th (local time) on the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for August delivery closed at $72.91 per barrel, down 1.5% from the previous trading day. Although the prospects of further easing of production cuts by oil producing countries have come out before the meeting, oil prices seem to be weighing on the further bullish side since the increase in oil production is a decision to keep up with overflowing demand. The detailed growth rate and return breakdown of the comparative asset class is as follows.

<Table 2= Current status of increase/decrease in returns by asset sector/Data= Chicago Mercantile Exchange, USA>
<Figure 8= Year-over-year return trend by asset category/Data = Trading View>

◇Comparison of returns by cryptocurrency (%) compared to the beginning of the year (as of 14:00 on June 29) <strong>

Bitcoin price is almost the same as last Thursday on a closing price basis, but stocks other than Bitcoin are recovering quickly. From the top 10 by market cap, Ethereum (ETH) rose to fifth place again, while Dogecoin (DOGE, +531.34%) and Cardano (ADA, +62.08%) rose sharply. As of 14:00 on the 29th, compared to the beginning of the year, Dogecoin (DOGE) ranked first with +4,408.63%, Binance Coin (BNB) came in second with +679.38%, Cardano (ADA) ranked third with +660.58%, Uniswap (UNI) ranked 4th with +283.61%, and Ethereum (ETH) ranked 5th with +190.23%.

<Figure 9= Ranking of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization compared to the beginning of the year/Data=Trading View>

◇On-chain indicator analysis

① Analysis of the day’s trading volume <Neutral>

By analyzing the daily trading volume of on-chain data of BTC/USD and ETH/USD, it is easy to check the direction of the Bitcoin price and respond. Indices 1 and 3 in Figure 10 show the spot trading volumes of 10 major exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, Poloniex, Bittrex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, HitBTC, Gemini), numbers 2 and 4 The indicator shows the direction of the market trend by calculating the total buying and selling quantity in real time and displaying the price volatility according to the rise and fall.

<Figure 10=(Left) BTC on-chain trading volume indicator of major exchanges/(Right) ETH on-chain trading volume indicator of major exchanges/Data= Aimrich Institute of Financial Engineering and Technology>

Looking at indicator 1 (BTC spot volume) and indicator 2 (ETH spot volume) in Figure 10, it can be seen that the prices of both stocks rose from their lows in the last 3 to 4 days, but the selling volume was maintained or increased during this period. have. In this on-chain trading volume pattern, it is difficult to expect a strong rise even if the market price does not decline.

Even in indicators 3 and 4, the direction of price volatility is pointing upward, but it is difficult to expect a large buying trend as the volatility is maintained at a very low level. In order to check whether the current uptrend can be maintained, it is necessary to periodically check whether the net long trading volume increases.

②Bitcoin price and Korea premium index trend analysis <Neutral>

As the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum rises, the two stocks are maintaining the gap with the kimchi premium at a certain level. And since the absolute value of the kimchi premium does not show any significant change, it is impossible to predict that the market is bottoming now, but there is no need to worry that the market will unconditionally decline. However, it is necessary to periodically check whether the relevant stock and the Kimchi Premium Index intersect and the rise/fall trend of the Kimchi Premium Index.

<Figure 11-1=Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Kimchi Premium Index Trend Comparison/Data=Cryptoquant>
<Figure 11-2=Ethereum price and Bitcoin Kimchi premium index trend comparison/Data=Cryptoquant>

③Bitcoin holding balance analysis of all exchanges <Neutral>

Figure 12 shows the trend of the Bitcoin balance held by all exchanges, and the smaller the balance, the more stable the Bitcoin price. Bitcoin balances on major exchanges have not changed much since last Thursday, but Ethereum has shown an upward trend, making it more likely to act as a short-term sale. Therefore, it seems necessary to periodically check the status of the balances of the two stocks.

<Figure 12-1=Comparison of Bitcoin (BTC) price and Bitcoin balance held by major exchanges/Data=Cryptoquant>
<Figure 12-2=Comparison of Ethereum (ETH) price and Ethereum balance held by major exchanges/Data=Cryptoquant>

◇ Analysis of the share of open interest in Bitcoin options on the day <bearish>

As a result of analyzing the percentage of open interest aggregated from all Bitcoin options issued by major cryptocurrency exchanges (Derribit, OKEx, (see Figure 13-1), the number of contracts rose by 20.20% at 10:00 am The position weight decreased to 12.38% at 14:00, and on a premium basis, 15.78% (up) at 10 o’clock (long call option): (sell put option) 5.66% (up) at 14:00 (long call option) 5.27 % (rise): (sell put options) 5.15% (up), the premium for buying a call option decreased, it was analyzed that option market participants expected a weakening of the Bitcoin price on the day.

<Figure 13-1= Analysis data of open interest in Bitcoin options of major exchanges as of 10:00 (up) and 14:00 (down) on the 29th/Data=Aimrich Institute of Financial Engineering and Technology>

<Weakness> In the same way, as a result of analyzing the percentage of open interest aggregated from bitcoin options that expire on the same day issued by the DRBT exchange (refer to Figure 13-2), it was 18.50% bullish at 10 p.m. based on the number of contracts. The position weight decreased to 13.16% at 14:00, and on a premium basis, 12.43% (up) at 10:00 (long call option): (long put option) 0.68% (down) at 14:00 (long call option) 7.75 % (rise): (buy put options) 0.45% (down), the long premium of call options decreases, and the market is expected to attempt a decline until the expiration settlement time (17:00).

<Figure 13-2= Analysis of open interest in Bitcoin options on Deribit Exchange as of 10:00 (top) and 14:00 (bottom) on the 29th data/data=Aimrich Institute of Financial Engineering and Technology>

◆Main Bitcoin futures status (as of 14:00 on the 29th)

Deribit Bitcoin option status (as of 14:00 on the 29th)

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